模拟区域土地利用变化的多主体模型及其在鄱阳湖区的应用(英文)

在较大区域内,城市用地扩张和农村土地利用发展一般同步进行。为了能够正确理解这类区域内土地利用/土地覆被变化的动力机制,本研究开发了一个基于多主体系统的土地利用模型。模型将鄱阳湖区视为一个典型区域,利用有限扩散聚合算法模拟城市主体的行为,采用基于涌现理论的主体模型模拟农村土地利用。农村子模型包括多种类型的主体和环境影响层,其中最重要的是农户主体,农户主体可以根据自身条件和周围的环境影响参数确定下一步土地利用的决策,政府主体则通过实施不同的政策对土地利用进行宏观控制。我们根据农户总收入和外出务工人员比例将农户主体分为6类,每种类型的农户主体遵循不同的决策规则。结果表明,本模型的模拟结果与鄱阳湖区1985 – 2005年的土地利用/土地覆被变化趋势高度相符。尤其重要的是,模拟结果充分表明农户主体的土地利用决策与国家政策紧密相关。这表明本研究建立的基于多主体的土地利用模型是一种评估政府土地管理政策效果的有效手段。     

Breadth and depth in research on health disparities: commentary on the work of Nancy Krieger

Geocoding and spatial analysis of data describing populations and health events are important methods in health social science now carried out using GIS technology. This commentary considers Nancy Krieger’s work on health disparities in light of the various ways individuals and organizations use geocoded population and health data: analyzing spatial patterns of health and disease including health disparities, aggregating data spatially, assessing health status of individuals based on characteristics of aggregates, modeling neighborhood contextual factors affecting health, designing observation and intervention studies, and delivering health interventions and services. The extent to which her work addresses each of these purposes is considered. The strengths and limitations of the research including choice of spatial analytic units and techniques as reported in the published work are discussed. Krieger’s work, with her colleagues, has used standard methods of spatial analysis to raise the profile of GIS and spatial analysis in the public health community.     

递进式项目教学法在“GIS程序设计”课程中的探索与实践

"GIS程序设计"作为地理信息科学专业的必修课,对学生专业能力的培养起到重要作用,同时GIS开发也是目前地理信息科学专业就业的主要方向。文中结合工程实践,通过校园地理信息系统、森林火灾扩散模拟分析与决策系统、小组答辩自选专题地理信息系统3个从简单到复杂的GIS项目,运用递进式的项目教学方法和团队协作、课上实践、课上提问、课内外答疑、课后作业、编写项目文档等措施对该课程进行改革探索和实践,并取得较好的教学效果。     

天津港秋冬季低能见度数值释用预报研究

本文利用近5年(2009—2013年)天津港资料,分析了该地区大气能见度的分级特征。采用7年秋、冬季NCEP(2006—2012年)和地面资料,通过相关分析给出了对港口低能见度天气有高影响的高、低空物理量因子;排除沙尘和降水天气,针对不同区间的能见度样本,利用BP神经网络方法分类训练了3个统计模型;并与WRF天气模式产品对接,采用分步筛选法,研发了天津港秋、冬季72 h时效的逐时能见度BP释用预报产品。经过3年业务运行,检验结果表明:对逐时能见度而言,BP释用预报对10 km以下低能见度比WRF模式的预报技巧显著提高,达到10.5%~35.4%;其中对0.5 km大雾的预报技巧总体相当,但当WRF预报有降水时,WRF模式预报结果略优;对0.5~1 km的大雾预报,WRF模式的预报技巧1%,BP释用预报提高到了14%~21%。日最低能见度的检验表明:对小于1 km的大雾过程,BP释用预报的TS评分平均达到75%,比WRF预报技巧提高了24%;对1~10 km的低能见度过程,比WRF的预报技巧平均提高了60%。     

基于时空大数据的城市脉动分析研究

随着新型城镇化建设成为了国家战略,各地政府掀起了智慧城市建设热潮。在智慧城市建设中,公共信息平台建设是不可或缺的重要基础环节。随着平台的深入运行,逐步积累了大量的城市数据。但是,数据资源中蕴含的知识远未得到充分挖掘和应用,致使数据爆炸但知识匮乏。因此,基于数据时空和专题属性,建立科学的城市数据体系是城市管理的迫切需求;同时,基于数据体系,揭示各类数据随时空变化规律,展现城市脉动发展情况是城市决策重要的依据,也是观察和诊治"城市病"的重要技术手段。我们以中新天津生态城所建成的大数据汇聚公共平台为依托,基于数据挖掘技术手段,针对环境、能源、交通脉动进行研究并取得初步成果,科学地揭示了"城市脉动"变化规律,使平台数据发挥最大价值。脉动分析结果以可视化手段表现,反映城市各项指标脉动变化特征。     

The modifiable areal unit problem in hedonic house-price models

When geographically aggregated data are included in hedonic models, the resulting coefficients are biased by the spatial scale and spatial configuration of variable measurement. We explore the effects of this modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) within the context of hedonic price models with an individual-level dependent variable. Specifically, we developed standard and spatial hedonic regression models in order to examine the effects of the MAUP on model fit and coefficient estimates. Our empirical analysis documents several significant scale and zoning effects in the hedonic modeling framework. First, neighborhood characteristics are clearly important in efforts to improve model fit—and they are more significant contributors in the standard model than in the spatial hedonic model. For aggregation scale, the model fit change of the standard model is relatively large, whereas the change is more modest for spatial models. The patterns of change in model fit for standard and spatial hedonic models clearly diverge from one another, implying the existence of a scale level showing a maximum functional range of the submarket on which scale dependencies are expected to have an impact. Regarding the zoning effect, the model fits for both standard and spatial hedonic models vary according to the submarket systems.     

Spatial Distribution of Shelf- and Slope-Dwelling Fishes Collected by Bottom Longline off Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, Canary Islands

Abstract. A total of 1789 fish belonging to 38 families and 73 species were collected at depths between 18 and 1102 m during 216 bottom longline operations off Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, Canary Islands, between February 1994 and December 1995. For each species the depth distribution is provided. Length-weight and depth-size relationships are reported for three shelf-dwelling species. The bigger-deeper relationship found in two of them contrasts with the bigger-shallower pattern of the deeper living trichiurid Lepidopus caudatus . In November 1997, nine additional bottom longline operations were carried out off eastern Fuerteventura at depths between 805 and 1217 m. In this area, after earlier studies in October 1995, a spawning aggregation of the morid Mora moro was encountered for the second time. The catches of 1997 revealed a strongly male-biased sex ratio. Also, the males showed a significantly lower gonadosomal index than two years earlier. These findings indicate slight interannual variations in reproductive timing and an earlier arrival of male Mora moro at the spawning grounds. Clear variations in the number of fish collected at adjacent sites possibly reflect a preference for distinct microhabitats. Preliminary evidence of local upwelling of cold water above the spawning grounds is provided by satellite imagery.     

Finite element analysis of steady-state natural convection problems in fluid-saturated porous media heated from below

In this paper, a progressive asymptotic approach procedure is presented for solving the steady-state Horton–Rogers–Lapwood problem in a fluid-saturated porous medium. The Horton–Rogers–Lapwood problem possesses a bifurcation and, therefore, makes the direct use of conventional finite element methods difficult. Even if the Rayleigh number is high enough to drive the occurrence of natural convection in a fluid-saturated porous medium, the conventional methods will often produce a trivial non-convective solution. This difficulty can be overcome using the progressive asymptotic approach procedure associated with the finite element method. The method considers a series of modified Horton–Rogers–Lapwood problems in which gravity is assumed to tilt a small angle away from vertical. The main idea behind the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is that through solving a sequence of such modified problems with decreasing tilt, an accurate non-zero velocity solution to the Horton–Rogers–Lapwood problem can be obtained. This solution provides a very good initial prediction for the solution to the original Horton–Rogers–Lapwood problem so that the non-zero velocity solution can be successfully obtained when the tilted angle is set to zero. Comparison of numerical solutions with analytical ones to a benchmark problem of any rectangular geometry has demonstrated the usefulness of the present progressive asymptotic approach procedure. Finally, the procedure has been used to investigate the effect of basin shapes on natural convection of pore-fluid in a porous medium. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative failure metric for gravity dams

Quantitative failure monitoring is a critical tool for safety assessment of concrete dams. This includes damage occurrence, intensity, location, number, size, and propagation pattern. Such an assessment is essential for a quantifiable prioritization of repair and will thus reduce overall cost and improve safety. This paper will address this timely topic through the nonlinear transient analysis of a dam and failure will be ascertained through a multi‐scale damage index. A damage‐plastic model for mass concrete is used, Drucker‐Prager elasto‐plastic one for the foundation, and infinite elements are used for far‐field boundaries. Water‐dam interaction is accounted for through fluid finite elements. It is determined that the proposed damage indices can indeed provide a quantitative metric for the degree of failure in gravity dams in terms of the input dynamic motion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近海欠密实砂质海床内波致渐进液化特征研究

利用一个经过广泛验证的数值模型FSSI-CAS 2D为计算工具,采用砂土的高级本构模型Pastor-Zienkiewicz-Mark III (PZIII) 描述海床砂土的动态力学行为,定量研究松散海床地基土在波浪作用下,其内部的液化过程和特征,以加深对波致海床液化特征、性质的认识。计算结果分析表明,开发的耦合数值模型FSSI-CAS 2D能够很好地捕捉到波浪作用下欠密实海床的动力响应特征,以及海床内的累积液化过程等一些列的非线性物理现象。研究表明,波浪导致的松砂海床液化是一个渐进过程,海床表面首先液化,并逐渐向下扩展。