阶段递进地震预报思路及其应用

首先提供了１９９８年１０月云南宁蒗５．３级地震前所确认的孕震过程和主要前兆异常,以此为例阐述阶段递进的预报思路;这一项预报思路首先根据历史震例中区域应力场的活动轨迹,跟踪其当前加载区域和活动构造,以被加载区域预释放大于２倍均方差及３．０～４．９级地震时空丛集图象认孕震区的存在;以此孕震区为载体思考近源区各种前兆异常的内在相关性,利用发震概率计算模型和各种短临预报指标对发震概率Ｐ进行具体计算,以Ｐ≥     

华北汛期降水长期变化规律研究新进展

华北汛期降水的年代际减少,一直是气候学领域关心的重要课题之一。本文扼要回顾了华北汛期旱涝研究的最新代表性成果,主要包括华北汛期起讫的客观识别、华北汛期降水多时间尺度的变化特征、华北汛期降水变化与大气遥相关型的关系,以及华北汛期降水量增多趋势的停滞等。在此基础之上,归纳和总结了该领域需要继续深入研究的问题,如：华北汛期起讫时间的统一性;在华北汛期降水年代际变少的归因分析中,其年际振荡成分衰减的物理原因;华北汛期降水年代际变多趋势停滞的原因;华北汛期降水何时恢复增多等科学问题。     

1999年以来地震生命损失评估研究新进展

地震后造成人员伤亡的影响因素有很多,包括震级、烈度、人口、房屋破坏程度、与断层的距离、经济发展状况等.本文总结了1999年以来国内外地震生命损失研究中的若干方法和模型,介绍了这些评估方法在地震后的应用情况,并进行了适当的总结.最后提出了人员伤亡评估的发展趋势.     

我国海洋地学编图现状、计划与主要进展

我国海洋地质地球物理工作起步晚,整体调查程度较低,进一步加强我国海洋地学编图显得十分必要.我国实施的"海洋地质保障工程",将分"中国海陆"、"中国海及邻域"和"中国各海区"三个层次来进行地学编图.第一层次编制了空间重力异常图、布格重力异常图、磁力异常图、地震层析成像图、莫霍面深度图、地质图、大地构造格架图和大地构造格架演化图等8种图件.编图反映出中国海陆重力异常是"线性异常带纵横交错,块状异常区坐落其间"、重力梯级带主要为块体结合带;陆地磁力异常大致正负磁异常相间分布,海域北部为沟-弧-盆相关异常、南部磁条带异常;莫霍面总体特征为"东西分带,南北分块";地震层析成像反映出中国东部和西部岩石层厚度的差异以及上地幔软流层的分布特点;大地构造格架和演化图再现了块体体制向板块体制的转换过程.本次编图强调地球深部结构的变化对表层构造的关联,重视地球物理资料与地质构造的结合,以深-浅层结合来划分中国大地构造格架.已有成果表明,中国海陆大地构造格局可以用"块体构造学说"来描述.     

对中国地震预报现状与未来的思考

本文是作者根据自己多年从事地震预报的经历与实践,将我国地震预报的38年历史分为四个阶段,概括了我国地震预报的主要进展和成就,指出地震预报的难点及我国地震预报的思路和技术上存在的几个问题,最后对我国地震预报发展战略提出思考。作者的观点和建议可供地震主管部门的领导和地震分析预报人员参考     

环境与工程地球物理的新进展

环境与工程地球物理是地球物理中的一个重要方向,并紧密与社会发展和人们生活各方面相结合,未来将倍受重视．本文在介绍2004年武汉召开的国际环境与工程地球物理学术会议(ICEEG)基础上,阐述了环境与工程地球物理领域的一些新进展和主要发展趋势．并有针对性地介绍了我国环境与工程地球物理现状。     

A New Progress of the Proterozoic Chronostratigraphical Division

The Precambrian, an informal chronostratigraphical unit, represents the period of Earth history from the start of the Cambrian at ca. 541 Ma back to the formation of the planet at 4567 Ma. It was originally conceptualized as a "Cryptozoic Eon" that was contrasted with the Phanerozoic Eon from the Cambrian to the Quaternary, which is now known as the Precambrian and can be subdivided into three eons, i.e., the Hadean, the Archean and the Proterozoic. The Precambrian is currently divided chronometrically into convenient boundaries, including for the establishment of the Proterozoic periods that were chosen to reflect large-scale tectonic or sedimentary features(except for the Ediacaran Period). This chronometric arrangement might represent the second progress on the study of chronostratigraphy of the Precambrian after its separation from the Phanerozoic. Upon further study of the evolutionary history of the Precambrian Earth, applying new geodynamic and geobiological knowledge and information, a revised division of Precambrian time has led to the third conceptual progress on the study of Precambrian chronostratigraphy. In the current scheme, the Proterozoic Eon began at 2500 Ma, which is the approximate time by which most granite-greenstone crust had formed, and can be subdivided into ten periods of typically 200 Ma duration grouped into three eras(except for the Ediacaran Period). Within this current scheme, the Ediacaran Period was ratified in 2004, the first period-level addition to the geologic time scale in more than a century, an important advancement in stratigraphy. There are two main problems in the current scheme of Proterozoic chronostratigraphical division:(1) the definition of the Archean–Proterozoic boundary at 2500 Ma, which does not reflect a unique time of synchronous global change in tectonic style and does not correspond with a major change in lithology;(2) the round number subdivision of the Proterozoic into several periods based on broad orogenic characteristics, which has not met with requests on the concept of modern stratigraphy, except for the Ediacaran Period. In the revised chronostratigraphic scheme for the Proterozoic, the Archean–Proterozoic boundary is placed at the major change from a reducing early Earth to a cooler, more modern Earth characterized by the supercontinent cycle, a major change that occurred at ca. 2420 Ma. Thus, a revised Proterozoic Eon(2420–542 Ma) is envisaged to extend from the Archean–Proterozoic boundary at ca. 2420 Ma to the end of the Ediacaran Period, i.e., a period marked by the progressive rise in atmospheric oxygen, supercontinent cyclicity, and the evolution of more complex(eukaryotic) life. As with the current Proterozoic Eon, a revised Proterozoic Eon based on chronostratigraphy is envisaged to consist of three eras(Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic), but the boundary ages for these divisions differ from their current ages and their subdivisions into periods would also differ from current practice. A scheme is proposed for the chronostratigraphic division of the Proterozoic, based principally on geodynamic and geobiological events and their expressions in the stratigraphic record. Importantly, this revision of the Proterozoic time scale will be of significant benefit to the community as a whole and will help to drive new research that will unveil new information about the history of our planet, since the Proterozoic is a significant connecting link between the preceding Precambrian and the following Phanerozoic.     

关于建立测绘技术进步指标体系框架的探讨

本文从技术进步的基本理论出发,结合测绘生产单位的实际情况,研究和探讨如何在测绘系统内建立测绘技术进步指标体系的一些框架内容。希望对测绘管理和规划部门有所帮助。     

沉积学研究热点与进展:第19届国际沉积学大会综述

基于第19届国际沉积学大会资料,分析了当前国际沉积学研究热点和研究进展,指出除了资源沉积学研究持续走热外,全球气候变化沉积记录、深水沉积与事件沉积和碳酸盐与微生物沉积成为当前沉积学3大热门研究领域。全球气候沉积记录领域的进展表现在气候的沉积记录载体研究,特殊地质时期或地域气候效应及早期气候宏观变化规律研究;深水沉积与事件沉积领域的进展包括水力跳跃、深水实地监测等重力流沉积过程研究,地震、海啸、洪水、火山等事件沉积学及重力流沉积预测及油气勘探;碳酸盐与微生物沉积领域的进展包含冷水碳酸盐沉积和微生物对碳酸盐沉积的控制。对比表明,中国沉积学研究在环境上关注河湖等陆相多,风成、冰川和海岸等研究较薄弱;性质上以资源沉积学等应用研究为主导,沉积动力过程等基础研究薄弱;热点领域上对深水沉积和非常规油气领域关注多,但多局限于沉积现象描述与油气勘探开发实践。笔者指出,注重碎屑物沉积动力过程和源—渠—汇系统分析,及时引进深水和冷水碳酸盐沉积理论、发展生物地质学,充分利用大量科探和油田钻孔资料开展全球气候研究,是近期中国沉积学突破的可能方向。     

黄土滑坡研究现状与设想

黄土滑坡因其危害大、分布广成为近年工程地质研究热点问题。首先对黄土滑坡类型划分进行了讨论,基于滑坡物质组成及主滑面发育位置的黄土滑坡分类方案反映了我国黄土滑坡的主控因素,各类滑坡活动特征明确,建议将其作为黄土滑坡分类的首选方案。对黄土滑坡的发生、滑动机制以及滑坡液化机制进行了评述,并就两类典型液化型黄土滑坡滑动模式、进一步研究思路进行了讨论。对地震诱发黄土滑坡进行了专门的述评。最后,对今后黄土滑坡研究提出了几点设想。