大洋涌浪耗散研究及模式应用的进展及主要问题

大洋中涌浪普遍存在且对大气-海洋之间的物理过程有较大影响,但目前对涌浪的耗散过程研究尚不充分。总结了关于涌浪传播和耗散的观测事实,着重指出利用遥感数据推进相关研究的可能性;同时分析可能的物理机制,并论述其在海浪模式中的应用及不足。通过梳理大洋涌浪耗散的研究进展,为今后开展涌浪相关研究提供依据。     

文蛤早期发育阶段生长性状遗传参数的估计

采用部分因子设计构建了23个全同胞家系,应用单性状及两性状动物模型对文蛤(Meretrix meretrix)早期不同生长发育时期的生长性状进行遗传力和相关性估计。结果表明,文蛤附着变态期以及稚贝期生长性状的遗传力并无显著差别,在0.11~0.41范围内变化,属于中等遗传力。非遗传的共同环境效应随着年龄的增长而呈现上升趋势,由附着变态期的0.02逐渐增加到稚贝期的0.38,且稚贝期的共同环境效应显著大于其附着变态期(P0.01)。壳长与壳高表型相关和遗传相关的分析结果显示,从附着变态期到稚贝期,壳长与壳高之间的表型相关及遗传相关都存在极显著的正相关性,相关系数的范围分别为0.84~0.95、0.93~0.99。早期发育连续时间段生长性状之间的遗传相关均为正相关,但并不显著,且不同时期的遗传相关也不尽相同(0.34~0.71)。     

半潜平台浮子式系泊系统参数优化研究

通过在系泊缆中设置浮子可以改善系泊系统性能,降低平台运动响应。建立浮子式系泊系统的数值计算模型,验证浮子式系泊系统数值计算方法,详细分析浮子设计参数(设置位置和净浮力大小)变化对系泊缆张力特性与平台运动的影响规律,并根据得到的规律选择了优化的浮子系泊系统方案。最后对优化方案进行评估,表明优化方案可以显著降低系泊中的平台水平运动,尤其是低频运动,同时系泊缆张力变化不大,仍满足安全要求。研究结果可为今后浮子式系泊系统设计提供参考。     

集约用海对莱州湾水动力环境影响的数值模拟研究

在考虑水体斜压的基础上利用MIKE3三维数值模型的HD和Ecolab模块,对莱州湾的水动力环境进行了数值模拟,并将验证良好的该模型用于分析预测集约用海工程的实施对莱州湾水动力环境造成的影响。研究结果表明:工程并不会大范围改变莱州湾海域的水动力特征,影响主要集中在工程区附近,距工程新岸线约20 km处,流速变化率在15%左右甚至更小;工程造成海湾纳潮量在大小潮期分别减小0.29%和1.07%,海湾与外海水交换能力被削弱,可能会导致湾内水体污染加剧;工程实施后海湾PO_4-P平均浓度升高,DIN平均浓度降低,N/P比下降,海域磷限制作用被削弱。     

板翼动力锚沉贯深度模型试验研究

板翼动力锚是依靠自重完成安装并靠自重和海床土的抗力来锚固的新型动力锚。板翼动力锚高速(15~25 m/s)贯入地基过程中涉及到高应变率、流固耦合、土体软化和大变形等难题,模型试验可避免上述计算困难,能直接得出不同的贯入速度所对应的沉贯深度。本文首先推导了模型相似关系,然后在常规重力条件下,进行了两组26个工况的板翼动力锚在均质黏土中动力安装过程的模型试验,根据试验结果确定了率效应参数的取值范围,并研究了每一项受力对沉贯深度的影响。最后提出了在均质黏土中预测板翼动力锚沉贯深度的经验公式。     

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area,China

The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km~2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km~2 from 2000 to 2014.(2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution(weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method.(3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years(2015–2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.     

A late Holocene winter monsoon record inferred from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, northern China

The variation of the Asian winter monsoonal strength has seriously affected the climate and environmental conditions in the Asian monsoonal region, and even in marginal islands and the ocean in the East Asian region. However, relevant understanding remains unclear due to the lack of suitable geological materials and effective proxies in the key study areas. Here, we present a grain-size record derived from the palaeo-aeolian sand dune in the southeastern Mu Us Desert, together with other proxies and OSL dating, which reflect a relatively detailed history of the winter monsoon and abrupt environmental events during the past 4.2 ka. Our grain-size standard deviation model indicated that >224 μm content can be considered as an indicator of the intensity of Asian winter monsoon, and it shows declined around 4.2-2.1 ka, enhanced but unstable in 2.1-0.9 ka, and obviously stronger since then. In addition, several typical climate events were also documented, forced by the periodic variation of winter monsoonal intensity. These include the cold intervals of 4.2, 2.8, 1.4 ka, and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and relatively warm sub-phases around 3.0, 2.1, 1.8 ka, and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), which were roughly accordant with the records of the aeolian materials, peat, stalagmites, ice cores, and sea sediments in various latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Combined with the previous progresses of the Asian summer monsoon, we preliminarily confirmed a millennial-scale anti-correlation of Asian winter and summer monsoons in the Late Holocene epoch. This study suggests that the evolution of the palaeo-aeolian sand dune has the potential for comprehending the history of Asian monsoon across the desert regions of the modern Asian monsoonal margin in northern China.     

基于层次分析法的德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分应用

基于物元模型的可拓学理论分析,提出华北平原德州地面沉降易发区的可拓学划分方法。利用地面沉降易发性分级、分类标准和影响因子分析,构造出经典域物元和节域物元,应用物元和可拓集合中的关联函数,建立了易发性等级综合评判的可拓评价模型,通过基于层次分析法的可拓学评价分析,采用正方形等间距(2km×2km)剖分了135个网格,再将剖分单元转化成面元,经过等值差分,得到了地面沉降易发区划结果。计算结果显示,可拓学方法能够实现定量化、多因子评价地面沉降易发性等级问题,从而科学合理地指导地面沉降综合分区防治。     

山东省蒙阴县常马矿区金刚石原生矿深部综合找矿模型

以矿区地质背景、含矿岩体地质特征为基础,分析了蒙阴县常马矿区金刚石原生矿的成矿地质条件,提出含矿岩体是受构造控制的金伯利岩岩体,岩体具有低电阻、低负重力场的地球物理异常等信息。在综合分析矿床成矿地质条件、磁异常、电性异常特征的基础上,初步建立了蒙阴县常马矿区金刚石原生矿矿床地质-磁法-电法综合找矿模型。     

中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析

区际人口迁移不仅与迁出地和目的地的要素特征以及距离有关,而且还受到周边迁移流的影响.基于网络自相关理论,利用"六普"省际人口迁移数据和相关统计资料,在重力模型的基础上考虑迁移流之间可能存在的几种空间依赖形式,构建中国省际迁移流的空间OD模型,初步揭示区域经济社会等因素及其空间溢出效应对省际人口迁移的影响,并就区域要素变化对整个省际人口迁移系统产生的"连锁反应"进行了模拟.结果表明:① 中国省际迁移流之间存在显著的网络自相关效应.目的地和迁出地的自相关效应皆为正,导致迁入和迁出流的空间效仿行为;迁出地和目的地周边则出现负的自相关效应,导致迁移流的空间竞争行为;② 区域经济社会等因素通过网络空间关系对周边地区产生的多边溢出效应导致迁移流在空间上集聚.其中,距离衰减效应位居各要素之首,其溢出效应进一步加剧距离的摩擦作用;对目的地而言,区域工资水平和迁移存量超过GDP的影响并产生正的溢出效应,促进周边地区吸引更多的外来人口;对迁出地而言,人口规模和迁移存量产生正的溢出效应,推动周边地区人口外迁;③ 区域要素变化潜在地对整个省际人口迁移系统产生一系列"连锁反应",震荡中心及其周边区域的迁移流波动较大.江苏省GDP增长5%的模拟结果表明,江苏迁往全国其他省份的人口数量都有不同程度地减少,而其他省份入迁人口均有所增加.相对而言,江苏周边省份的迁入或迁出流受到的波动较大,偏远省份波及较小,这是传统的重力模型所无法解释的.