一种建立局域无缝海图深度基准面的方法

根据海洋测绘中垂直基准构建的需求,提出了一种基于主成分-逐步回归分析的建立局域无缝海图深度基准面的方法。在此基础上,利用中国某海区多个验潮站深度基准面值及分潮调和常数振幅,建立了该海区局域无缝深度基准面值回归方程。实例计算表明,该方法所建立的局域海区无缝海图深度基准面值能够达到厘米级精度,可为海图深度基准面体系的重新构建提供技术支持。     

QUICKBIRD影像的正射纠正及地形图更新应用研究

介绍了Quick Bird影像的波段合成、分辨率融合、图像增强以及自然色彩变换等技术,阐述了Quick Bird影像的正射纠正的方法、纠正后的精度分析、纠正后应用于地形图及空间数据更新的技术方法。     

福建省数字化钻孔体应变观测资料质量初步分析

对整个福建省的钻孔体应变仪器运行状况进行了综合评价,并对4个台站的观测资料质量进行了分析,用M2波潮汐因子及其相对中误差等来衡量其总体精度和稳定性,还分析了钻孔应变观测的干扰机理和特征,希望能够正确地认识以及排除观测资料中的非异常信息,提高观测精度,为地震分析预报提供可靠的前兆资料。     

如何提高磁照图数字化的精度

CBMD是一款针对CB-3模拟磁照图进行数字化处理的软件,利用专业图像处理技术,对模拟磁照图进行数字化,由于模拟仪器调试及存放因素造成了图纸状况不尽相同,使用者在数字化处理过程中,根据不同的图,纸采用相应的方法进行处理,才能保证数字化结果精确度.本文就主要的几种影响处理精度的情况展开讨论,并提出具体的解决方法.     

改进的灰色预测模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又古有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究.本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究.结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息.     

Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

GPS工程控制网最优化设计的研究

本文讨论了GPS工程控制网的最优化设计问题;通过对GPS工程控制网的精度和可靠性分析,建立了应用点位精度矩阵相关性优化GPS网的数学模型;针对解算中存在的问题,提出了最短路径法寻找整数变量线性规划问题的最优解。     

微震仪标定精度的分析与改进

从微震仪标定的基本公式出发，以误差理论为基础，以ＤＤ—１型地震仪为例，导出标定中各因素对标定精度的影响；并用概率统计方法，对标定精度做了比较符合实际的计算，进而提出了提高标定精度的改进措施。     

菲涅耳积分计算公式及其应用

菲涅耳积分是物理光学、微波技术与天线等多学科共用的特殊函数,其形式为上限可变而又不能积出的两个定积分,通常将其按变量u的不同区间分别用正或负幂级数计算。本文在原有公式的基础上研究出了简单、精密且变量复盖实数域的计算公式及其计算机程序。内容包括:(1) 最佳分区点u_1的选择;(2) u≤u_t时菲涅耳积分的变比级数表达式;(3) u>u_1时菲涅耳积分的三角函数表达式;(4)程序流程图;(5) 抽样运行数据及检验结果。