Impact of 4DVAR assimilation of rainfall data on the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems in a mei-yu heavy rainfall event

The multi-scale weather systems associated with a mei-yu front and the corresponding heavy precipitation during a particular heavy rainfall event that occurred on 4 5 July 2003 in east China were successfully simulated through rainfall assimilation using the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic, mesoscale, numerical model （MM5） and its four-dimensional, variational, data assimilation （4DVAR） system. For this case, the improvement of the process via the 4DVAR rainfall assimilation into the simulation of mesoscale precipitation systems is investigated. With the rainfall assimilation, the convection is triggered at the right location and time, and the evolution and spatial distribution of the mesoscale convective systems （MCSs） are also more correctly simulated. Through the interactions between MCSs and the weather systems at different scales, including the low-level jet and mei-yu front, the simulation of the entire mei-yu weather system is significantly improved, both during the data assimilation window and the subsequent 12-h period. The results suggest that the rainfall assimilation first provides positive impact at the convective scale and the influences are then propagated upscale to the meso- and sub-synoptic scales.
Through a set of sensitive experiments designed to evaluate the impact of different initial variables on the simulation of mei-yu heavy rainfall, it was found that the moisture field and meridional wind had the strongest effect during the convection initialization stage, however, after the convection was fully triggered, all of the variables at the initial condition seemed to have comparable importance.     

Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.     

散乱数据插值的HASM方法

本文运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,研究了空间散乱数据插值算法,并以陕西咸阳彬县大佛寺煤矿区的实测数据为案例,使用交叉统计检验方法比较分析HASM方法与地理信息系统(GIS)领域中常用传统插值方法的空间插值结果。结果表明,HASM方法具有较高的精度。本文还分析了传统常用插值方法的一些统计结果,得出一些结论,这些结论对于使用常用传统GIS空间插值方法的研究者有很好的参考作用。     

怒江六库水电站建设移民搬迁地的GIS分析选择

云南水能资源丰富,是我国重要的水电基地,水电开发具有综合效益好、比较成本低的显著特点,可极大地拉动当地的经济社会发展。电站建设涉及面广,需要解决的问题多,移民就是其中历来困扰水电开发建设的难题之一,移民搬迁贯穿于电站建设全过程,是水电开发不可分割的重要组成部分。随着社会的进步,以人为本观念的渗透,科学、有效地为水电开发移民选择理想的安置地,让移民真正从水电开发中受益已显得越来越重要。本文以拟建的怒江流域梯级电站中的六库电站为例,探讨采用GIS的空间叠置分析、缓冲区分析、网络分析等空间分析技术为移民寻找适宜居住的最佳搬迁地。安置区的选择,我们主要考虑以下因素:(1)靠近集镇或主要交通线,便于各类配套实施的建设及对外交往;(2)充裕的适宜开发的土地资源和水源条件;(3)坡度小于25度的区域;(4)安置区最好在本县,与所在区域居民语言相通,传统习俗相近便于沟通交流,有认同感;(5)安置区选择与自然保护区、国家重点建设规划用地不冲突。     

基于WebGIS定制平台的开发与应用

基于柔性设计、定制及框架技术,形成应用型WebGIS定制平台的概念及框架,提炼了平台的高柔性、多粒度功能复用、充分可定制三大特点,进行了数据定制与配置、界面定制与配置、功能定制与配置等功能的研究与设计。基于WebGIS定制平台的开发与应用实践证明:该开发模式实现了多个WebGIS应用系统的敏捷开发,较好地支持了数据共享、功能复用与界面的一致性。     

地理数据的不确定性研究

目前地理数据不确定性是制约遥感(RS)与地理信息系统(GIS)发展的主要因素之一,直接影响地理数据分析的空间决策支持系统输出的可信度。如何识别、量化、跟踪、减少、可视化表达地理数据不确定性,已引起地理信息科学领域专家的广泛重视,成为3S领域新的研究热点。本文先阐述地理数据不确定性研究的重要性,然后分析地理数据不确定性产生的根源,最后提出开展地理数据不确定性研究的方法及地理数据不确定性的优先研究领域。     

基于层次分析法的动态指标体系管理系统及其应用

层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP),是从定性分析到定量分析综合集成的一种典型的系统工程方法。本文介绍了利用层次分析法的原理设计的一个动态的指标体系管理及指数计算输出系统,并介绍了基于这个系统的一个应用案例--农业现代化程度评价指标体系的构建及计算、输出过程。     

城市GIS数据多级共享交换平台系统

针对目前城市众多管理部门对城市GIS数据共享交换平台不同层次的共享需求,在分析文件级、数据平台级、系统功能级以及Web服务级四种共享交换模式特点的基础上,本文采用业务流技术设计了一种集成多级共享交换模式的数据模型。结合无锡市地理信息共享交换平台项目的建设,给出了模型在城市GIS数据交换平台系统中的具体应用过程,以期对其他城市同类系统的建设提供一定的参考价值。     

基础地理信息动态更新技术体系初探

近年来,我国测绘部门完成了国家级基础地理信息数据库的"初始建库",基础测绘工作重点已转向持续更新和灵性服务。未来的基础地理信息"应需适时更新"将体现更新内容灵性化、更新周期适时化、更新方式多元化等特点,其主要业务模式包括变化监测、变化测定、主数据库更新和产品更新及服务四大部分。为了有效开展"应需适时更新",应构建包括动态监测与数据预处理、变化信息采集与处理、数据库与产品更新、更新信息网络化服务四大主体部分的动态更新技术体系。该体系是信息化测绘技术体系的一个重要组成部分,应加强对其关键技术的研发,开展技术装备成套化和业务体系建设。     

中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。