A new method for indentifying the model error of adjustment system

Some theory problems affecting parameter estimation are discussed in this paper. Influence and transformation between errors of stochastic and functional models is pointed out as well. For choosing the best adjustment model, a formula, which is different from the literatures existing methods, for estimating and identifying the model error, is proposed. On the basis of the proposed formula, an effective approach of selecting the best model of adjustment system is given. Project supported by the Open Research Fund Program of the Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University (No. 905276031-04-10).     

Investigating the propagation mechanism of unmodelled systematic errors on coordinate time series estimated using least squares

The propagation of unmodelled systematic errors into coordinate time series computed using least squares is investigated, to improve the understanding of unexplained signals and apparent noise in geodetic (especially GPS) coordinate time series. Such coordinate time series are invariably based on a functional model linearised using only zero and first-order terms of a (Taylor) series expansion about the approximate coordinates of the unknown point. The effect of such truncation errors is investigated through the derivation of a generalised systematic error model for the simple case of range observations from a single known reference point to a point which is assumed to be at rest by the least squares model but is in fact in motion. The systematic error function for a one pseudo-satellite two-dimensional case, designed to be as simple but as analogous to GPS positioning as possible, is quantified. It is shown that the combination of a moving reference point and unmodelled periodic displacement at the unknown point of interest, due to ocean tide loading, for example, results in an output coordinate time series containing many periodic terms when only zero and first-order expansion terms are used in the linearisation of the functional model. The amplitude, phase and period of these terms is dependent on the input amplitude, the locations of the unknown point and reference point, and the period of the reference point's motion. The dominant output signals that arise due to truncation errors match those found in coordinate time series obtained from both simulated data and real three-dimensional GPS data.     

K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.     

A quantitative investigation into the temporal and spatial variations in the emergence of adult blackflies (Diptera: Simuliidae) from the Breitenbach, a small upland stream in Germany

As a contribution to the long-term emergence studies carried out as part of the “Breitenbach ecosystem project”, this paper presents the results obtained on emergence patterns and population dynamics of blackflies from 1984 to 1988. The Breitenbach is a small first order stream near Schlitz/Hesse, running into the Fulda river. Adult blackflies were caught in 4 greenhouse emergence traps, each spanning the whole width of the stream for a length of 6 m. A manual and then a partly automated method for collecting trapped insects was applied for three years and one year, respectively. Sixteen blackfly-species of different origin were found in the traps: a) autochthonous species: Prosimulium tomosvaryi, Simulium vernum s.l., S. cryophilum s.l., S. ornatum s.l. (common); S. costatum, S. trifasciatum, S. monticola, S. argyreatum (rare); b) species of doubtful origin: S. lundstromi, S. angustitarse, S. angustipes, S. aureum (very rare); c) allochthonous species: S. lineatum, S. equinum, S. erythrocephalum, S. noelleri. It was shown that the last 4 species had not emerged from the Breitenbach but had flown into the traps as adults. In addition, females of autochthonous species with blood or with mature eggs were trapped, which were also considered to have flown in. Besides revealing a limitation of the trap construction, they supported the detailed interpretation of some intricated patterns of appearance. Variations in emergence patterns and specimen numbers between years and traps were pronounced, but only in a few cases could they be attributed to changes in abiotic factors such as water temperature or discharge. P. tomosvaryi had the most simple and regular life cycle, with one well synchronised emergence peak annually from April to May (or even to June). No gradient of specimen numbers along the stream was evident. The two closely related species S. vernum and S. cryophilum had quite similar emergence patterns: There were two broad peaks per year, extending mainly from March to June and from July to October or November. In some cases the number and separation of consecutive generations was not clear. The abundance of both species clearly decreased downstream, more so for S. cryophilum than for S. vernum. In a trap closest to a tributary spring, S. cryophilum was the dominant species during three of the four years examined. The adults of S. ornatum displayed an intricate pattern of appearance, with very low specimen numbers in spring and medium to very high numbers in July/August and September/October. S. ornatum is the only blackfly species that inhabits both the Breitenbach and the adjacent section of the Fulda river. It was shown that females emerging from the Fulda river regularly invade the Breitenbach valley in greatly varying numbers and oviposit there. This leads to overlapping larval cohorts with corresponding emergence peaks. Although S. ornatum was the most abundant species in one year in the lower traps (60 to 80% of all individuals), it remains uncertain whether it is a long-term, permanent member of the autochthonous blackfly fauna of the Breitenbach. Estimates of total numbers of flown-in adults, actual emergence, dry weight biomass, the ecological separation of the species and their life cycle strategies are discussed.     

Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.     

城市用地与人口的异速增长和相关经验研究

由于城市土地利用变化涉及的因素多，使获取动态研究研究所需的资料十分困难，所以，用少数几个主要因素定量地表达其变化就显得十分重要。从前人的成果，即以人口表示的城市位序-规模法则和建成区面积表示的位序-规模法则出发，绽绎出城市的用地规模和人口数量呈异速增长。这意味着，如果把整个城市看成是一个生命有机体，那么作为反映城市特征的城市用地规模和城市人口这两个重要变量，就是城市这个有机体的两个器官，他们的增长率是成比例的。还通过这个关系建立了城市建成区面积与市场人口和经济发展水平的数学模式。对我国部分城市的经验研究在一定程度上分别证明了这两经验关系。     

沙坡头人工植被区中的油蒿种群动态与稳定性

利用种群生态学中的年龄结构、静态生命表和种群动态指数对沙坡头包兰铁路北侧1964年和1981年沙地人工植被区中的油蒿种群结构动态进行分析,发现1981年区和1964年区的油蒿种群都属于增长型,但1981年区的增长性大于1964年区,也就是说,随着人工植被建立的时间延长,油蒿种群结构由快增长型转向慢增长型.因此,沙地中的油蒿种群的动态趋势是由快增长向慢增长,以及衰退方向演变,最终有从人工植被区中消失的趋势.同时,油蒿种群结构的增长型是油蒿能长期存在的种群生态学原因,是它具有适应干旱、半干旱区的沙地生境的生物学特性所决定的.     

盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统微生物特征

为揭示盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统微生物群落结构特征,1994-1995年,对松嫩平原苏打盐碱化湿地稻-鱼复合生态系统水体与土壤中的微生物数量及种群组成进行了初步研究。结果表明,稻-鱼湿地水体中异养细菌数量显著高于稻田湿地(P<0.05),季节变化特点为秋季>夏季>春季。异养细菌的数量分布与鱼产量有显著相关关系(r=0.879)。稻-鱼湿地系统的土壤微生物数量明显高于稻田湿地(P<0.01)。稻-鱼湿地和稻田湿地分别检测出10个和11个属的异养细菌。稻-鱼湿地系统1个生长期细菌的平均生物量为0.973g/m3,生产量为307.5 kg/hm2,所提供的鱼产力为7.0 kg/hm2。     

Population and environment in Australia: issues in the next half century

This paper considers the likely future population in Australia to 2050 and is cast within the context of environmental limitations, to which Griffith Taylor alerted the nation in the 1920s and 1930s, and for which he was vilified in several quarters. While acknowledging the relative accuracy of his long-range forecasts, the arguments here depart from environmental determinism, although varying sets of environmental ethics and values are considered in relation to Australia's global responsibilities and international commitments. It is argued that an increase in population to 26 million by 2050 will not place severe stresses on the physical environment, provided environmental and resource management strategies are put firmly in place, and if consumption and resource use practices are significantly modified. An ideological linkage exists between a resurgent Australian nationalism and a number of environmental perspectives, but one which rejects growth and biological diversity among humans while embracing environmentalism. This inward-looking nationalism–environmentalism is seen as harmful both to Australia's moral integrity as a nation, and in local and world citizenship.