Seismic reliability assessment and the nonergodicity in the modelling parameter uncertainties

Modelling uncertainty can significantly affect the structural seismic reliability assessment. However, the limit state excursion due to this type of uncertainty may not be described by a Poisson process as it lacks renewal properties with the occurrence of each earthquake event. Furthermore, considering uncertainties related to ground motion representation by employing recorded ground motions together with modelling uncertainties is not a trivial task. Robust fragility assessment, proposed previously by the authors, employs the structural response to recorded ground motion as data in order to update prescribed seismic fragility models. Robust fragility can be extremely efficient for considering also the structural modelling uncertainties by creating a dataset of one-to-one assignments of structural model realizations and as-recorded ground motions. This can reduce the computational effort by more than 1 order of magnitude. However, it should be kept in mind that the fragility concept itself is based on the underlying assumption of Poisson-type renewal. Using the concept of updated robust reliability, considering both the uncertainty in ground motion representation based on as-recorded ground motion and non ergodic modelling uncertainties, the error introduced through structural reliability assessment by using the robust fragility is quantified. It is shown through specific application to an existing RC frame that this error is quite small when the product of the time interval and the standard deviation of failure rate is small and is on the conservative side.     

Monitoring soil surface roughness under growing winter wheat with low-altitude UAV sensing: Potential and limitations

Soil surface roughness (SSR) is an important factor in controlling sediment and runoff generation, influencing directly a wide spectrum of erosion parameters. SSR is highly variable in time and space under natural conditions, and characterizing SSR to improve the parameterization of hydrological and erosion models has proved challenging. Our study uses recent technological and algorithmic developments in capturing and processing close aerial sensing data to evaluate how high-resolution imagery can assist the temporally and spatially explicit monitoring of SSR. We evaluated the evolution of SSR under natural rainfall and growing vegetation conditions on two arable fields in Denmark. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry was used to monitor small field plots over 7 months after seeding of winter wheat following conventional and reduced tillage treatments. Field campaigns were conducted at least once a month from October until April, resulting in nine time steps of data acquisition. Structure from motion photogrammetry was used to derive high-resolution point clouds with an average ground sampling distance of 2.7 mm and a mean ground control point accuracy of 1.8 mm. A comprehensive workflow was developed to process the point clouds, including the detection of vegetation and the removal of vegetation-induced point cloud noise. Rasterized and filtered point clouds were then used to determine SSR geostatistically as the standard deviation of height, applying different kernel sizes and using semivariograms. The results showed an influence of kernel size on roughness, with a value range of 0.2–1 cm of average height deviation during the monitoring period. Semivariograms showed a measurable decrease in sill variance and an increase in range over time. This research demonstrated multiple challenges to measuring SSR with UAV under natural conditions with increasing vegetation cover. The proposed workflow represents a step forward in tackling those challenges and provides a knowledge base for future research. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

整点气温缺测的插补方法研究及其初步应用

长期连续完整的历史气温资料是震前气温异常判别研究的重要数据基础。本文考虑了参考站与缺测站之间的距离,建立改进的线性回归模型。利用该模型插补缺测和错误的气温整点值数据,在一定程度上解决了长期连续观测数据缺测的情况。通过对收集的唐山观测站气温整点值数据进行插补,并应用插补完整的数据分析研究了2012年5月28日唐山4.8级地震前兆异常。结果表明:①插补值与其前后观测值衔接吻合,插补后完整连续数据符合夏高冬低的年变规律;②插补误差在±0.5℃范围内的比例为60.2%,在±0.8℃范围内的比例为80.3%,其误差绝对值大于1.0℃的比例为9.6%,平均绝对误差为0.84℃,插补值与观测值的相关系数大部分在0.9以上;③从3月27日起出现增温异常,特别是震前2天增温幅度约8℃。     

2013年岷县-漳县6.6级地震震前地磁异常分析

区域地磁在一定范围内,在排除空间环境、仪器本身故障等因素的前提下,各地磁台所观测到的地磁曲线是具一定相关性的,但强震孕震过程中会引起电导率等电磁性质发生改变,从而改变台站间地磁本应呈现出来的相关性,因此地磁异常可以为震前地震预报提供有用信息。以2013年7月22日岷县-漳县6.6级地震为研究对象,对其震前地磁前兆异常进行研究。分析表明：震前有明显的低点位移异常现象,且在此次异常后36天发生了6.6级地震;地磁Z值的每日一值空间相关分析也出现了明显异常,从空间上看,相关系数与地震震中有很好的对应关系,震中刚好处在相关系数最低的位置;且地磁台的密集程度对计算区域相关系数具有较大影响。     

地下点坝砂体内部构型分析--以孤岛油田为例

用Miall层次界面分析法对孤岛油田52井组馆陶组Ng4^4砂层点坝砂体内部3,4级界面进行详细研究,并与Miall的6级层次界面相对应,定义4级界面为单一河道的顶底界面,构型要素为单一的点坝砂体;3级界面为点坝内部侧积体分界面,实际上是点坝砂体的侧积面,其限定的构型要素为点坝侧积体。还对单井进行了泥质界面划分及成因砂体分析,建立了点坝成因砂体单井模型,根据研究区开发动态特征,推论点坝砂体内部存在倾斜的泥质侧积层,并借助储层地质学基本理论,对侧积体规模、倾角进行了限定。在上述研究基础上建立了点坝侧积体的三维地质模型,数值模拟结果研究表明,点坝侧积层对剩余油分布具明显控制作用。     

蓖齿眼子菜的光合速率及影响因素

本文研究了蓖齿眼子菜(Potamogeon pectinatus L)在滇池的光合速率、体内叶绿素季节变化及光和水温对其光合速率影响,并根据实验,计算出了蓖齿眼子菜生长的光补偿点,研究结果表明,蓖齿眼子菜1～3月份的净光合产氧量最大,为1.82～1.83mg/(g·h),6月份最低,为0.63 mg/(g·h);植物体内Chl.a和Chl.b平均含量分别为0.25～1.15mg/(g·h)和0.28～0.85mg/(g·h),蓖齿眼子菜可以通过调节体内Chl.a/Chl.b值来适应不同季节生长;蓖齿眼子菜有较宽的水温适应范围,10℃时的净光合产氧量可达0.88mg/(g·h),最高值出现在水温25℃,为1.16mg/(g·h),而30℃以上的水温已表现出对其生长的不利影响;蓖齿跟子菜生长的光补偿点为358～1256Lx,并随温度上升而逐渐增加.     

Bench development along the regulated,lower River Dee,UK

Channel change to regulated flows along large lowland rivers with cohesive bank materials has been investigated on the lower Welsh Dee, including the tidally influenced reach. Reduction of channel width has involved the formation of a 5–40m wide discontinuous bench, often linking ‘point’ and ‘concave’ locations. Map evidence shows that wide benches occur where historically the channel had migrated laterally; narrow benches were found at stable channel locations. Auger cores of the bench deposits clearly differentiated the two contrasting depositional environments within meandering rivers: ‘point bench’ and ‘concave bench’. Around an individual bend a morphologically continuous bench showed a gradient in sediment characteristics from coarser sediments (point locations) to finer organic deposits (concave locations); it also showed a topographic gradient, gaining 0.5m in elevation around the bend suggesting that bench accretion at concave locations is faster than at point locations in fluvially dominated reaches. Such patterns are suggested to have important implications for riparian ecosystems. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of geomembrane response to settlement in landfills by using the material point method

Because of the multiple layers of dissimilar materials and large deformations involved in the subsidence of a landfill system, large-scale computer simulation of the geomechanical response to subsidence with the use of conventional numerical methods are problematic. The Material Point (MPM), which was recently developed for dynamic problems such as penetration and perforation, is a newly emerging numerical method. The MPM is modified in this paper to simulate the geomechanical response of a landfill cover system that includes a geomembrane under quasi-static loading conditions. Sample problems, for which an analytical solution is available with certain assumptions, are considered to demonstrate the proposed solution procedure. Future work is discussed based on current research results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attributes and uncertainty of dissolved zinc data from a mined catchment

This study evaluated the attributes and uncertainty of non‐point source pollution data derived from synoptic surveys in a catchment affected by inactive metal mines in order to help to identify and select appropriate methods for data analysis/reporting and information use. Dissolved zinc data from the Upper Animas River Basin, Colorado, USA, were the focus of the study. Zinc was evaluated because concentrations were highest relative to national water quality criteria for brown trout, and zinc had the greatest frequency of criteria exceedances compared with other metals. Data attributes evaluated included measurement and model error, sample size, non‐normality, seasonality and uncertainty. The average measurement errors for discharges, concentrations and loadings were 0·15, 0·1 and 0·18, respectively. The 90 and 95% coefficients of confidence intervals for mean concentrations based on a sample size of four were 0·48 and 0·65, respectively, and ranged between 0·15 and 0·23 for sample sizes greater than 40. Aggregation of data from multiple stations decreased the confidence intervals significantly, but additional aggregation of all data increased them as a result of increasing spatial variability. Unit area loading data were approximately log‐normal. Concentration data were right‐skewed but not log‐normal. Differences in median concentrations were appreciable between snowmelt and both storm flow and baseflow, but not between storm flow and baseflow. Differences in unit area loadings between all flow events were large. It was determined that the average concentration and unit area loading values should be estimated for each flow event because of significant seasonality. Time weighted values generally should be computed if annual information is required. The confidence in average concentrations and unit area loadings is dependent on the computation method used. Both concentrations and loadings can be significantly underestimated on an annual basis when using data from synoptic surveys if the first flush of contaminants during the initial snowmelt runoff period is not sampled. The ambient standard for dissolved zinc for all events was estimated as 1600 μg l⁻¹ using the 85th percentile of observed concentration data, with a 90% confidence interval width of 200 μg l⁻¹. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

陕西省飞机增雨作业典型天气个例分析

在2002～2003年春秋季陕西省14次飞机增雨作业天气分析的基础上,对2002年9月13日飞机增雨作业典型天气个例的环流背景、影响系统以及500 hPaθse、温度、垂直速度、水汽通量散度等物理量场进行了分析,并结合飞机和雷达探测资料,得出飞机增雨作业需要的有利于层状云向降水转化的条件：有稳定的层状云,云系有一定冷层厚度和过冷云水量,供自然冰相降水元和人工催化形成的降水元增长;云系还应有一定厚度的暖层,供下落的自然和人工形成降水元融化再经碰并云水增长成雨滴形成降水.陕西省春秋季具有进行有效飞机增雨作业的天气系统和天气条件.