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91.
提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据,比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似,通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度,从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程,预测未来l~10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。 相似文献
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93.
荒漠戈壁下垫面表面动量和感热湍流通量参数化研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
用合理筛选以后的野外观测资料,研究了荒漠戈壁地表湍流通量参数化的问题。首先,分析了Monin-obukhov相似函数的特征,并拟台出了其经验公式。结果表明,风速和温度相似性函数随稳定度参数的变化曲线与典型经验曲线差异较小,并且在经验曲线分布范围以内,但中性时的值有所不同。同时,还用该资料给出了动量和标量粗糙度(感热粗糙度)长度的平均值及其标量粗糙度随摩擦速度的变化关系。发现标量粗糙度的平均值大约比动量粗糙度的小一个量级,并且随摩擦速度的增大而减小,但明显比其理论预测值要大。 相似文献
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地震能量空间分布局域标度特性中短期预报方法及效能评价——实际震例的回顾性检验 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
利用中国大陆丰富的地震记录,对表征地震能量空间分布局域标度特性的各参量〔1〕及其组合进行系统研究,提炼具有可操作性、能够用于日常地震监测预报的实用方法,特别着重于“异常”划分方式及划分标准的研究。这一划分方式及划分标准对不同地区或不同时段均是“动态”可变的,对所研究的10个区域内发生的中强地震进行回顾性的预报检验,发现对于较短时期(0.5-1.5年),其最大预报评分的平均值介于0.3—0.6之间,明显高于随机应答的概率评分,表明多参数综合使用具有相对强的预报能力 相似文献
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98.
AN EVALUATION OF SEVERAL TURBULENCE SCHEMES FOR THE PREDICTION OF MEAN AND TURBULENT FIELDS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
PETER J. HURLEY 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,83(1):43-73
A prognostic three-dimensional mesoscale model has been developed andused in one- and two-dimensional modes to evaluate ten local turbulenceclosure schemes. The schemes ranged from first-order to the two-equationprognostic schemes. Predictions by the models were compared for aone-dimensional convective boundary layer using mixed layer scaling andmeasurements to interpret the results. Two-dimensional simulations were alsoperformed for a sea-breeze flow and for flow over a hill. The results showedthat for all of the models considered, minor differences were produced in themean meteorological fields and in the vertical scalar fluxes, but majordifferences were apparent in the velocity variances and dissipation rate.Predicted tracer concentrations were very sensitive to the turbulence modelformulation for dispersion from a point source in the convective boundarylayer, particularly for the prediction of maximum concentrations. Predictedtracer concentrations from a surface volume source for the two-dimensionalsimulations were similar for all models, although the degree of mixing in themorning growth period produced some differences. Generally, good results forthe mean meteorological fields can be obtained with first-order schemes, evenif they underpredict the magnitude of turbulence in the convective boundarylayer, and reasonable tracer concentrations can also be obtained with thesemodels provided near-source effects are not important. The two-equationprognostic models performed best for the prediction of turbulence in theconvective boundary layer. 相似文献
99.
J. A. M. JANSSEN 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1997,83(3):479-503
There have been several claims, either explicit or by implication, either based on experimental evidence or on theoretical reasoning, that the wind stress is modified by the stage of development of the wind sea. However, the overall evidence is weak, because theories are still incomplete and because it is questionable whether the sea-state effect, which is of the order of 10%, can be separated from experimental noise, which is of the order of 20%. In this paper a rigorous statistical analysis of HEXMAX data is pursued in order to establish the significance of sea-state effects. It appears that the enhanced drag, especially at high winds, which has already been established by previous analyses, cannot be attributed to the effect of young waves. The analysis provides no clues for the actual mechanism, which could be related to breaking or shoaling waves. As the effect of sea-state on wind stress is much smaller than the experimental noise level, it is hard to detect. Nevertheless, HEXMAX seems to contain a wave effect that is at the edge of statistical significance. It is, however, not the wave age itself that influences the drag, but a parameter involving wave height.Because the HEXMAX evidence is only indicative, we conclude that the issue set out in this paper cannot be answered on the basis of the HEXMAX data alone. It is recommended that error analyses are also carried out for other relevant observational data sets and that new measurements with suppressed noise will be taken up. 相似文献
100.
场论理论在经济客体地位评价中的应用:以河南省城市地位为例 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7
一个 经济客体地位的评价不能单从该经济客体本身来考虑,它还与评价区域周围其它观察经济客体有关,会受到其它经济客体的衬托作用。经济客全的地位应包括评价经济客体在其它经济客体的“势”和其它经济客体在评价经济客体处的“势”两部分。 相似文献