Stochastic management of pump-and-treat strategies using surrogate functions

Typical pump-and-treat (PAT) optimization problems involve design of pumping schemes, while minimizing cost and meeting a set of constraints. Due to scarcity of information about the hydrogeological system, stochastic modeling approaches can be used to assess tradeoffs between optimality and reliability. Using a stochastic approach, the constrained, single-objective problem may be turned into a multiobjective problem by substituting constraint inequalities with an additional objective function (OF) that accounts for the reliability of the PAT process. In this work, two approaches are analyzed: in one case, the additional OF consists of the probability of failure of a given remediation policy; in another, the OF additional is represented by the recourse, namely the penalty cost induced by the violation of constraints. In order to overcome the overwhelming computational cost required by stochastic simulation, surrogate forms of the OFs are introduced. In the test case under investigation, such functions are estimated by a kriging interpolation of the OF over a series of data points obtained from stochastic simulations of flow and transport, and calibrated against stochastic optimization solutions. The analysis of the two approaches for addressing the tradeoff of cost vs. reliability indicates that recourse accounts not only for the frequency of constraint violations, as the probability of failure does, but also for the intensity with which these occur. Ultimately, the recourse method allows considering less restrictive policies, although these may be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty functions.     

Variability in sediment supply,transfer and deposition in an upland torrent system: Iron Crag,northern England

Research into torrent erosion has focused on bedload transport dynamics, debris flow propagation during flood events, and fan sedimentation. Studies have frequently been biased towards specific events and have not considered sediment delivery in the catchment as a whole. The aim of this study is to examine spatial variations and process controls on sediment transfer in an upland torrent system (hillslopes, channel and fan). The study site is Iron Crag, a small torrent system (catchment area 2·4 ha) situated in the northern Lake District, UK. Particle size analysis of hillslope sediments trapped during transport suggests sediment calibre is controlled primarily by sediment source. Freeze–thaw and rainfall processes impart a weak but recognizable size sorting signature on the trapped sediments. However, these variations are less significant in determining sediment supply to the basal fan, than those operating in the channel system. Channel sediment movement is strongly influenced by storm events, the type of flow process (debris flow or fluvial flow), the sediment characteristics, and the local channel topography. The importance of the channel–fan coupling is clearly demonstrated in that more than 90 per cent of fan sedimentation is derived from channel sediment sources. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多父体杂交演化算法求解约束优化问题

提出了一种求解约束函数优化问题的新算法。设计了3种新的多父体杂交算子。这3种算子都使用了统计信息来决定搜索方向，使算法具有较高的收敛速度，同时又具有互补的特性，使得种群在演化过程中能保持较好的多样性，不容易陷入局部最优。对常见测试函数的数值实验证实了新方法的有效性、通用性和稳健性，其性能优于现有的一些演化算法。     

多卫星区域观测任务的侧摆方案优化方法研究

提出了多颗成像卫星对某一区域目标进行观测的侧摆方案优化方法。该方法主要包括调度预处理与优化两个步骤。在调度预处理阶段，集成STK软件解决了航天观测中时间窗口难以量化计算等问题；在优化阶段，建立数学优化模型，并基于遗传算法实现了模型的求解。     

New aerosol particle formation via certain ion driven processes

Ions can speed up the formation of aerosol particles. The former studies have mainly concerned on the role of the ion charge itself. We have studied the possible (additional) role of the actual small air ion spectrum shape, and the quantitative role of ion–ion recombination pathway. By means of our ion evolution model, formation of new species (H₂SO₄)_n(NH₃)_m(HNO₃)_k via ion–ion recombination was investigated. The model shows how the generation rate of the new species depends on the concentrations of H₂SO₄ and NH₃, and how it depends on the tropospheric background aerosol situation. The rate can be up to a few new neutral complexes per cubic centimeter and per second. New particle generation via ion–ion recombination provides an extra channel, especially for the clean atmosphere. Former results have shown that such situations are often present in Antarctica. Our aerosol spectrum measurements reveal a number of similar non-Antarctic results. Sometimes, such situations are followed by aerosol bursts, which may be (partly) due to an ion–ion recombination channel.     

Temporal development of the 1999 intrusive episode in the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland, derived from InSAR images

Eyjafjallajökull volcano, located in southern Iceland, is characterized by its quiet nature. Only about a handful of earthquakes associated with the volcanic system had been detected prior to the 1990s. Earthquake swarms did, however, occur in 1994 and 1999. Here we investigate the spatio-temporal evolution of a magmatic intrusion associated with the 1999 earthquake swarm via analysis of produced surface deformation. A series of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, spanning various periods of the intrusion, show that in 1999 surface deformation occurred mainly on the southern flanks of the volcano. The deformation amounts to more than 20 cm of range change. Inverse modeling resolves the deformation source to be a sill intrusion at 6.3 km depth. Sill opening was up to 1 m and the total intruded volume amounts to ～0.03 km³. The InSAR data display a migration of the center of deformation through time, enabling us to create time-dependant sill-opening models. Furthermore, we investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes and find that the distribution supports the InSAR derived model and additionally provides indications for a possible site of a feeder channel. Magmatic flow-rate estimates indicate an initial intrusion rate of 4–6 m³/s, declining over a few weeks.     

500 m口径球面大射电望远镜台址BP神经网络优选

从贵州众多的喀斯特洼地中优选出适宜的大射电望远镜候选台址是一个复杂的系统分析过程,需综合考虑洼地几何条件、工程条件、地质条件、气象条件和无线电波环境等因素.由于各因素具有复杂性、模糊性和难以量化等特点,因此在洼地评价和台址优选中采用最能有效反映各评价指标复杂关系的多层人工神经网络BP模型,并以最小挖填方率来量化洼地拟合望远镜球冠时土石方工程量、以洼地最适宜口径来量化大射电望远镜口径规模.优选结果表明,在集中分布于黔南和黔西南的82个喀斯特洼地中,评价等级为"较好"的有30个,"好"的有6个.优选出的36个洼地均具备作为望远镜候选台址的条件,且集中分布于以下三大区域内:①以平塘、紫云、惠水、罗甸、荔波为中心的区域;②以普定、安顺、镇宁为中心的区域;③以安龙、兴义和关岭为中心的区域.     

伊利石单元粒子及其研究意义

单元粒子是单晶体构成的细小的粘土颗粒,是由一种或多种层状结构的硅酸盐构成的混层粘土的基本单元。多数伊利石单元粒子以混层晶体的"建筑砌块"的形式产出,"砌块"与"砌块"之间,在 a、b方向通过"砌块"的边缘界面相"砌合"而连接,在 c轴方向通过平面界面相"砌合"而连接。还对伊利石单元粒子的生长机理及形成过程中的形态变化、利用伊利石单元粒子的厚度划分成岩作用阶段等方面的研究成果进行了综述。伊利石单元粒子的形成过程有三个阶段：蒙脱石伊利石化过程中2nm厚的伊利石粒子的成核作用阶段、成核作用与生长作用阶段和表面控制生长阶段。伊利石单元粒子生长过程中,伊利石单元粒子呈现从板状体到条状体的生长,而板状颗粒又呈现各种螺旋生长图案,有圆形、残缺的圆形、多边螺旋、平行阶梯状螺旋、交错螺旋等。伊利石单元粒子的厚度分布服从对数正态型,其峰值为10.5nm。单元粒子与纳米科技两者的主要研究内容和所采用的方法基本一致,建议今后将研究单元粒子与研究纳米粘土矿物学有机地结合起来。     

On the current-voltage relationship in fluid theory

The kinetic theory of precipitating electrons with Maxwellian source plasma yields the well-known current-voltage relationship (CV-relationship; Knight formula), which can in most cases be accurately approximated by a reduced linear formula. Our question is whether it is possible to obtain this CV-relationship from fluid theory, and if so, to what extent it is physically equivalent with the more accurate kinetic counterpart. An answer to this question is necessary before trying to understand how one could combine time-dependent and transient phenomena such as Alfvnic waves with a slowly evolving background described by the CV-relationship. We first compute the fluid quantity profiles (density, pressure etc.) along a flux tube based on kinetic theory solution. A parallel potential drop accumulates plasma (and pressure) below it, which explains why the current is linearly proportional to the potential drop in the kinetic theory even though the velocity of the accelerated particles is only proportional to the square root of the accelerating voltage. Electron fluid theory reveals that the kinetic theory results can be reproduced, except for different numerical constants, if and only if the polytropic index γ is equal to three, corresponding to one-dimensional motion. The convective derivative term v∇v provides the equivalent of the “mirror force” and is therefore important to include in a fluid theory trying to describe a CV-relationship. In one-fluid equations the parallel electric field, at least in its functional form, emerges self-consistently. We find that the electron density enhancement below the potential drop disappears because the magnetospheric ions would be unable to neutralize it, and a square root CV-relationship results, in disagreement with kinetic theory and observations. Also, the potential drop concentrates just above the ionosphere, which is at odds with observations as well. To resolve this puzzle, we show that considering outflowing ionospheric ions restores the possibility of having the acceleration region well above the ionosphere, and thus the electron kinetic (and fluid, if γ=3) theory results are reproduced in a self-consistent manner. Thus the inclusion of ionospheric ions is crucial for a feasible CV-relationship in fluid theory. Constructing a quantitative fluid model (possibly one-fluid) which reproduces this property would be an interesting task for a future study.     

Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)

In a special opportunity, detailed measurements of the flow in an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford were used in conjunction with tracer test data to assess the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT). Ten different RPT models based on different assumptions and levels of information about the nature of the Lagrangian velocity field were investigated. Multiple simulations were used to calibrate variable parameters controlling the average magnitude of the perturbations for each model by comparison with observed concentrations at one cross-section. The calibrated models were then used to predict concentration distributions further downstream. Several of the calibrated models showed close agreement between observed and predicted concentration distributions. The most complex models using the most information about the velocity distributions were no better (and in some cases worse) in prediction than the simplest models investigated. It would appear that our knowledge of the system, despite the quality of the experiments, is too uncertain to infer a precise model structure.