Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan

The variation of ground motions at specific stations from events in six narrow areas was inspected by using K-NET and KiK-net records. A source-area factor for individual observation stations was calculated by averaging ratios between observed values for horizontal peak acceleration and velocity, as well as acceleration response spectra for 5% damping, and predicted values using a ground-motion model (usually known as an attenuation relation) by Kanno et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 96:879–897, 2006). Standard deviations between observed and predicted amplitudes after the correction factor are less than 0.2 on the logarithmic scale and decrease down to around 0.15 in the short-period range. Intra-event standard deviation clearly increases with decreasing distance due to differing paths around near source area. Standard deviations may increase with amplitude or decrease with magnitude; however, both amplitude and magnitude of the data are strongly correlated with distance. The standard deviation calculated in this study is obviously much smaller than that of the original ground-motion model, as epistemic uncertainties are minimized by grouping ground motions at specific stations. This result indicates that the accuracy of strong ground motion prediction could be improved if ground-motion models for specified region are determined individually. For this to be possible, it is necessary to have dense strong-motion networks in high-seismicity regions, such as K-NET and KiK-net.     

M5 model tree based modelling of reference evapotranspiration

This paper investigates the potential of M5 model tree based regression approach to model daily reference evapotranspiration using climatic data of Davis station maintained by California irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Four inputs including solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed whereas reference evapotranspiration calculated using a relation provided by the CIMIS was used as output. To compare the performance of M5 model tree in predicting the reference evapotranspiration, FAO–56 Penman–Monteith equation and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relation was used. A comparison of results suggests that M5 model tree approach works well in comparison to both FAO–56 and calibrated Hargreaves–Samani relations. To judge the generalization capability of M5 model tree approach, model created by using the Davis data set was tested with the datasets of four different sites. Results from this part of the study suggest that M5 model tree could successfully be employed in modeling the reference evapotranspiration. Further, sensitivity analysis with M5 model tree approach suggests the suitability of solar radiation, average air temperature, average relative humidity, and average wind speed as input parameters to model the reference evapotranspiration Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground motion attenuation relations of small and moderate earthquakes in Sichuan region

On the basis of 10 935 broadband velocity records of 135 earthquakes (ML3.0-6.4 and epicentral distance of 26-623 km) occurred from May 12 to June 10 in 2008, which are collected from 27 bedrock stations included in Sichuan Earthquake Monitoring Network, the corresponding acceleration records are obtained by a real-time simulation method. Then by regression analysis on the data, the relation between the peak ground acceleration and velocity attenuation of small and moderate bedrock earthquakes occurred in S...     

西宁市区土层剪切波速随深度变化特征

通过对西宁市区67个钻孔剪切波速资料整理,采用最小二乘法进行统计回归分析,得到西宁市土层剪切波速Vs随土层埋深H的经验关系式,西宁市典型土类Vs与H的经验关系。并且通过实测剪切波速与预测剪切波速的对比,验证所得经验关系式的适用性。     

沈阳市活断层深地震反射勘探研究

本文通过深地震反射探测,获得了沈阳市区北部Moho面以上的地壳深部结构和剖面,上地壳复杂的断裂组合关系和下地壳高角度的深断裂共同构成了该区的深、浅构造关系,其结果为沈阳市活断层的地震危险性评价奠定了基础。     

螺旋桩基础抗拔试验研究

异型的桩体几何形式增加了抗拔螺旋桩的桩土相互作用复杂性,抗拔试验研究有利于了解螺旋桩基础的承载机制和影响因素。通过16次原型桩抗拔试验,实测了单桩上拔荷载-位移曲线（U-Z曲线）,该曲线表现出多拐点、渐进型特点,采用单位荷载的桩顶位移变化率、桩顶位移增量以及结合地基变形特征的方法判定了3种桩型的抗拔极限荷载。用U-Z曲线、lgU-Z曲线和P/Pu-Z曲线初步分析了桩体埋深、深宽比、首层叶片埋置深度以及叶片距宽比等参数对螺旋桩基础抗拔承载性状的影响。试验表明,抗拔螺旋桩的埋深、首层叶片埋置深度和叶片距宽比存在临界点,影响桩土的工作性状和破坏模式。     

垃圾土力学性质的室内试验研究

对室内配制的不同成份的垃圾土分别进行了固结不排水和固结排水三轴压缩试验。结果表明,垃圾土的本构关系基本符合邓肯-张双曲线模型。垃圾土中有机质及土粒的含量是影响垃圾土强度参数c,φ值的重要因素。对于有机质含量较高而土粒含量较低的垃圾土,c宜取低值,φ宜取高值。给出了c,φ值的取值范围及其变化规律。随着时间的变化,c值会有所增加,而φ值会有所降低。观察到垃圾土的轴向应变超过30 %而其主应力差仍然在增长。垃圾土在固结过程中,存在滞留孔隙水压力,其渗透系数k值的变化与应力、时间、垃圾土的成分等因素有关。在固结排水三轴压缩试验的剪切过程中,孔隙水压力会随轴向应力的增加而增加,试验所得到的总应力强度参数并不就是有效应力强度参数。     

我国海洋产业结构分析及产业优化对策

利用海洋统计数据分析我国海洋产业结构的现状与变化趋势,采用相关分析、灰色相关分析等计量经济学方法,确定影响海洋产业发展的相关因素,根据《海洋经济发展规划纲要》的要求,应用产业经济理论、产业关联理论、区域经济和海陆经济一体化理论系统分析目前我国海洋产业结构中存在的问题并提出海洋产业的优化对策。     

不确定性理论集对分析在沙尘暴预报中的应用研究

应用集对分析（SPA）这一关于不确定性问题的数学理论和方法,基于概率统计分析,从SPA的同、异、反分析出发,用联系度公式导出解决预报中合理地使用预报因子的方法,实现预报模型因子结构的动态优化,增强模型预报机制的合理性,达到提高模型预报能力的目的。在以往对沙尘暴研究成果的基础上,以强风、热力和沙源三大影响因子为着眼点,结合2001\_2003年的沙尘暴天气个例,对沙尘暴天气进行了分类,分别选取预报因子,建立基于SPA的沙尘暴预报模型。根据数值预报产品输出结果,于2004年春季进行了短期（24 h）预报试用,结果表明,这一方法具有较好的效果。     

湿陷性黄土结构性变形特性分析

基于结构性黄土应力应变特性认识和大量试验结果的分析,揭示了黄土结构性参数与应变、含水率、固结压力之间的关系,并给出了结构性参数的数学表达式。将该式引入结构性黄土应力应变特性分析,提出了考虑结构性参数的应力-应变关系。分析计算所得的应力-应变关系与试验结果有较好的一致性,说明了原状黄土结构性参数描述的合理性和基于结构性参数应力-应变关系的合理性。