Loading effect of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide on the gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tides at superconducting gravimeter stations

The gravimetric parameters of the gravity pole tide are the amplitude factor δ, which is the ratio of gravity variations induced by polar motion for a real Earth to variations computed for a rigid one, and the phase difference κ between the observed and the rigid gravity pole tide. They can be estimated from the records of superconducting gravimeters (SGs). However, they are affected by the loading effect of the ocean pole tide. Recent results from TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) altimeter confirm that the ocean pole tide has a self-consistent equilibrium response. Accordingly, we calculate the gravity loading effects as well as their influence on the gravimetric parameters of gravity pole tide at all the 26 SG stations in the world on the assumption of a self-consistent equilibrium ocean pole tide model. The gravity loading effect is evaluated between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2006. Numerical results show that the amplitude of the gravity loading effect reaches 10⁻⁹ m s⁻², which is larger than the accuracy (10⁻¹⁰ m s⁻²) of a SG. The gravimetric factor δ is 1% larger at all SG stations. Then, the contribution of a self-consistent ocean pole tide to the pole tide gravimetric parameters cannot be ignored as it exceeds the current accuracy of the estimation of the pole tide gravity factors. For the nine stations studied in Ducarme et al. [Ducarme, B., Venedikov, A.P., Arnoso, J., et al., 2006. Global analysis of the GGP superconducting gravimeters network for the estimation of the pole tide gravimetric amplitude factor. J. Geodyn. 41, 334–344.], the mean of the modeled tidal factors δ_m = 1.1813 agrees very well with the result of a global analysis δ_CH = 1.1816 ± 0.0047 in that paper. On the other hand, the modeled phase difference κ_m varies from −0.273° to 0.351°. Comparing to the two main periods of the gravity pole tide, annual period and Chandler period, κ_m is too small to be considered. Therefore, The computed time difference κ_L induced by a self-consistent ocean pole tide produces a negligible effect on κ_m. It confirms the results of Ducarme et al., 2006, where no convincing time difference was found in the SG records.     

基于重复地震的地壳介质参数分析软件

随着数字地震学的快速发展,重复地震在地震学的研究中显得越来越重要。本文首先介绍了重复地震的定义和识别方法,然后基于此研制了重复地震识别与分析软件,最后给出了重复地震在地震预测中的一个实际应用例子。结果表明基于该软件工具可充分利用数字地震波形开展相对高精度的地壳介质动态变化分析。     

Bayesian power-law regression with a location parameter,with applications for construction of discharge rating curves

This paper presents a Bayesian approach for fitting the standard power-law rating curve model to a set of stage-discharge measurements. Methods for eliciting both regional and at-site prior information, and issues concerning the determination of prior forms, are discussed. An efficient MCMC algorithm for the specific problem is derived. The appropriateness of the proposed method is demonstrated by applying the model to both simulated and real-life data. However, some problems came to light in the applications, and these are discussed.     

大跨度输水洞穿高速浅埋暗挖方案模拟比选研究

利用非线性有限元程序,对三跨拱涵开挖施工方案进行模拟。通过对两种较为可行的施工方案进行模拟,比较了开挖引起的地表沉降、衬砌的应力变化和洞周土体的塑性区等因素,综合考虑后利用模糊评判选出了优选方案。同时,由模拟的数据还发现了隧洞开挖时容易出现的各种危险情况,建设施工单位在危险区域采取适当的措施,得到很高的实际价值,对今后类似工程有借鉴意义。     

刚-柔性桩复合地基变形特性有限元分析

在现场试验基础上对条形基础下刚-柔性桩复合地基进行有限元模拟分析。着重讨论了褥垫层、承台、刚性桩、柔性桩等的参数变化对刚-柔性桩复合地基沉降特性的影响。结果表明,复合地基沉降随着褥垫层厚度减小而减小,随着褥垫层模量增加而减小,承台厚度增加有利于减少差异沉降,刚性桩是控制沉降的主要构件,柔性桩桩长增加可以减少差异沉降。分析结果为刚-柔性桩复合地基的优化设计提供理论基础。     

基于智能反分析的水布垭电站地下厂房机窝施工方案优化

采用正交设计、三维数值模拟、遗传算法与支持向量机,建立了清江水布垭电站地下厂房的智能反分析流程。按照上述流程,利用前6层开挖的现场监测信息对有关岩层的力学参数进行反分析,根据反分析的参数对后续的机窝施工进行数值模拟计算和方案优化。推荐的机窝施工方案采用槽挖方式,同时应用锚桩、软岩置换、锚喷支护等措施,兼顾了高边墙和机窝岩台的稳定性。优化结果对厂房施工具有重要的指导作用。     

两种智能算法在求解地下水管理模型中的对比

分别将禁忌搜索和遗传算法与地下水流模型MODFLOW和地下水溶质运移模型MT3DMS相耦合,并将其应用于求解地下水资源优化管理模型。在概述两种智能算法基本原理和地下水管理模型组成的基础上,结合两个理想的应用实例,从优化结果和计算效率两个方面对禁忌搜索和遗传算法进行了对比分析。在两个实例中,禁忌搜索分别以高于遗传算法10倍和27倍的计算效率得到了减少抽水流量约160 m³/d和节约治理成本约47万元的治理方案。结果表明,禁忌搜索在求解地下水管理模型中具有较好的应用前景。     

基于灰色线性规划的土地利用结构优化——以云南省澜沧县为例

土地利用结构优化是编制土地利用总体规划的基础和核心。以云南省澜沧县为例,分析该县2000年土地利用结构和社会经济结构状况,以最优化理论为指导思想,运用灰色线性规划方法,结合其未来社会经济发展的需求和有关控制指标,优化该县2015年土地利用结构,为全县土地资源的合理开发利用,获取最佳的社会、经济和生态效益提供“定量”的参考,最终促进区域社会经济又好又快发展。     

干旱区工业共生网络优化研究——以新疆石河子市为例

立足资源和环境约束,对干旱区工业共生过程中链条的设计、水资源的优化利用进行了定性探讨,提出两个观点:干旱区需在确定支柱产业和重点行业的基础上再进行纵向主导产业链与横向耦合共生链的设计;通过促进农业节水用于工业、工业共生反哺农业、提高工业重复用水率来解决工业用水不足的矛盾。继而运用模糊数学建立了多目标模糊优化模型,对共生网络的优化进行了定量研究。所建模型以共生网络经济效益、社会效益、资源效益和环境效益的综合最优作为目标函数,以非线性的相对优属度作为权重系数,将资源瓶颈、环境污染排放总量控制目标等作为约束条件,来求解多目标问题,既科学表达了共生系统的复杂性,又充分体现了工业共生追求经济-环境双赢的内涵。实例应用则表明以上思路、模型与方法具有理论价值和实践意义。     

Ecologically based landscape pattern optimization in northwest of Beijing

Supported by the technologies of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS), we chose northwest of Beijing as a study area and gave priority to understanding of the spatial-temporal characteristics of landscape pattern change through visually interpreted Landsat TM images of 1989, 1996 and 2005. It is believed that there were a series of landscape ecological problems caused by city expansion: landscape ecological connectivity was low; landscape structure was simplified; the fragmentation of green land patch was more obvious on the plain areas, moreover, spatial distribution of green land was unbalanced. For this reason, this study adopted accumulative cost distance model, combined with ecosystem services and spatial interactions of landscape types, analyzed the spatial difference of the ecological function and the compactness of landscape structure in the study area, and further discussed the landscape pattern optimization proposal. We find that it is essential to protect and establish ecological sources, to establish urban ecological corridors, and to establish ecological nodes at the landscape ecological strategic positions so as to intensify spatial relationships among landscape elements and maintain continuity of landscape ecological process and pattern in the course of city expansion. The methods and final results from this study are expected to be useful for landscape ecological planning in Beijing region.