顾及板块内部形变的抗差估计异常测站筛选方法及应用

采用块体运动的整体旋转与线性应变模型（RELSM）描述块体内部形变，利用具有高崩溃污染率的抗差估计方法，对中国大陆构造环境监测网络在环渤海区域的GPS观测速度场数据进行测站筛选及拟合分析。结果表明，本文方法不仅能较好地兼顾块体整体运动的平滑性和局部构造运动的差异性，还能抑制粗差的影响，可获得较好的速度场拟合结果。     

Numerical modeling and neural networks to identify model parameters from piezocone tests: II. Multi‐parameter identification from piezocone data

This paper completes the study presented in the accompanying paper, and demonstrates a numerical algorithm for parameter prediction from the piezocone test (CPTU) data. This part deals with a development of neural network (NN) models which are able to map multi‐variable input data onto typical geotechnical characteristics and constitutive parameters of the modified Cam clay model, which has been applied in this study. The identification procedure is designed for the coupled hydro‐mechanical boundary value problem in normally‐and lightly overconsolidated clayey soils including partially drained conditions that may appear during cone penetration. The NN models are trained with pseudo‐experimental measurements derived with the aid of the numerical model of the piezocone test, presented in the accompanying paper. Different input configurations containing CPTU measurements and some complementary data are studied with respect to the accuracy of predicted parameter values. Finally, the performance of the developed NN predictors is tested with field CPTU data which are derived from three well‐documented characterization sites, and the obtained predictions are compared with benchmark laboratory results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bianchi type-II space-times with constant deceleration parameter in self creation cosmology

The properties of locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type-II perfect fluid space-times are analyzed in Barber’s second self-creation theory by using a special law of variation for Hubble’s parameter that yields a constant value of deceleration parameter. By assuming the equation of state p=γ ρ, many new solutions are obtained for different era—Zel’dovich, radiation, vacuum and vacuum energy dominated. The solutions with power-law and exponential expansion are discussed. A detailed study of geometrical and physical parameters is carried out. The nature of singularity is also clarified in each case.     

Hydrological modelling using data from monthly GCMs in a regional catchment

This study demonstrates the use of spatially downscaled, monthly general circulation model (GCM) rainfall and temperature data to drive the established HyMOD hydrological model to evaluate the prospective effects of climate change on the fluvial run‐off of the River Derwent basin in the UK. The evaluation results of this monthly hydrological model using readily available, monthly GCM data are consistent with studies on nearby catchments employing high‐temporal resolution data, indicating that useful hydro‐climatic planning studies may be possible using standard datasets and modest computational resources. HyMOD was calibrated against 5 km² gridded UK Climate Projections dataset data and then driven using monthly spatially interpolated (~5 km²) outputs from Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) A2a and B2a covering the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Results for both GCMs project a decrease in annual run‐off in both GCM models and scenarios with higher values in the summer/autumn months, whereas an increase in the later winter months. Both Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis show higher ranges of uncertainty during the winter season with higher values of run‐off associated with December in all three simulation periods and two scenarios. A seasonal comparison of run‐off simulations shows that both GCMs give similar results in summer and autumn, whereas disparities due to GCM uncertainties are more conspicuous in winter and spring. In this study, both the GCMs under A2a scenario have demonstrated the high possibility of time shift in monthly average peak run‐offs in the Derwent River by 2080s in comparison with the early 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood hydrograph reconstruction from the peak flow value in ephemeral streams using a simplified robust single‐parameter model

Flood hydrographs from ephemeral streams in arid areas provide valuable information for assessing run‐off and groundwater recharge. However, such data are often scarce or incomplete, especially in hyper‐arid regions. The hypothesis of this study was that it is possible to reconstruct a hydrograph of a specific point along an ephemeral stream with the knowledge of only the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point and that this can be done at almost every point along the stream. The feasibility of this approach lies in the shape of the recession stage of the flood hydrograph, which is known to be a repeating phenomenon. The recession stage comes immediately after the peak flow rate, when it begins its decline, and lasts until the flood is extinguished. A general shape of the flood recession stage can be provided. Because the recession stage represents ~80% of the duration of a flood event, it can provide a general idea of the flood hydrograph's shape. A simple model based on geometric progression is suggested to describe the repeating recession stage of a flood. The advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only one parameter: the recession characteristic at a fixed point along the ephemeral stream, termed recession coefficient q. By knowing the recession coefficient of a fixed point and the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point, one can plot the flood hydrograph. A good agreement is shown between the observed and computed values of the recession stage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivation of Parametric Tropical Cyclone Models for Storm Surge Modeling

In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analytical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone (typhoon 199417) is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.     

Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment

Despite their acknowledged limitations, lumped conceptual models continue to be used widely for climate‐change impact assessments. Therefore, it is important to understand the relative magnitude of uncertainties in water resource projections arising from the choice of model calibration period, model structure, and non‐uniqueness of model parameter sets. In addition, external sources of uncertainty linked to choice of emission scenario, climate model ensemble member, downscaling technique(s), and so on, should be acknowledged. To this end, the CATCHMOD conceptual water balance model was used to project changes in daily flows for the River Thames at Kingston using parameter sets derived from different subsets of training data, including the full record. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to explore parameter stability and identifiability in the context of historic climate variability. Parameters reflecting rainfall acceptance at the soil surface in simpler model structures were found to be highly sensitive to the training period, implying that climatic variability does lead to variability in the hydrologic behaviour of the Thames basin. Non‐uniqueness of parameters for more complex model structures results in relatively small variations in projected annual mean flow quantiles for different training periods compared with the choice of emission scenario. However, this was not the case for subannual flow statistics, where uncertainty in flow changes due to equifinality was higher in winter than summer, and comparable in magnitude to the uncertainty of the emission scenario. Therefore, it is recommended that climate‐change impact assessments using conceptual water balance models should routinely undertake sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainties due to parameter instability, identifiability and non‐uniqueness. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimate of the alpha parameter in an oat crop under rain‐fed conditions

In this article, we estimated the alpha parameter of the Priestley–Taylor model under rain‐fed conditions. This study was conducted in an oat crop, from 7 September to 22 October 2009, in a region of subhumid plains (Tandil, Argentina). An energy balance station was installed within the experimental field to monitor its development. The alpha parameter value obtained was 1.41 ± 0.01, which led to an overestimation of the evapotranspiration of just 2% and a relative error in estimating evapotranspiration of 8%. The results suggest that the alpha parameter obtained is adequate in estimating the evapotranspiration of oat crops or similar crops in subhumid plains of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浮式风机一体化模拟的计算参数设置影响研究

随着海上浮式风机的大型化发展，针对漂浮式风机的一体化耦合分析越来越重要。本文利用Simo-Riflex-Aerodyn 仿真工具建立OC4-Deepcwind 漂浮式风机一体化耦合模型，分析计算时间步长、初始截断时间、弹性结构单元离散数等计算参数对模拟结果的影响，包括浮式基础运动、系缆张力、叶片受力等。结果表明：当计算时间步长为0.005 s、0.01 s、0.02 s 时，浮式风机的响应结果差别较小，而计算消耗时间相差较大，0.01 s、0.02 s 的计算时间分别是0.005 s的70%、37%。相同工况下，不同参量响应达到稳定所需时间不同，纵荡需要的时间较长，最长达200 s；不同工况下，同一参量达到稳定所需时间也不相同，切出工况需要的时间最短，较额定工况快约60 s。结构单元离散数对塔柱受力影响较小，对叶片变形影响相对明显，当叶片离散数目减小时，响应值增大12%。实际中应根据具体工况选择合理的计算时间步长、初始截断时间和弹性结构单元离散数量。