长江中下游汛期降水优化多因子组合客观定量化预测研究

针对长江中下游区域汛期降水模式预报误差,利用历史资料的有用信息订正模式预报误差.根据国家气候中心预测室提供的74项环流特征量和美国国家海洋和大气管理局发布的40项气候指数,确定降水预报误差场的相似年份,利用相似年的降水误差场对模式结果进行相似误差订正,有别于传统的模式系统误差订正.研究发现,相似误差订正效果明显优于系统...     

隧道洞内导线加测陀螺方位角最佳位置的研究

根据误差传播定律及条件平差法求得直线型洞内导线加测陀螺方位角后贯通点的横向中误差;并运用多元函数求条件极值的方法,确定加测陀螺方位角的最佳位置;而后在贯通误差满足规范要求的前提下,计算了单向开挖长度分别为6 km和9 km的隧道需加测陀螺方位角的数量。     

油基钻屑现场热解析处理技术现状及展望

深部石油勘探和页岩气、致密气等非常规油气开发过程中会产生大量的油基钻屑,热解析技术被认为是最有效的油基钻屑环保处理技术,也是实现油基钻屑废弃物资源化利用的有效途径。本文重点介绍油基钻屑现场热解析处理典型的先进技术、装置与应用情况;针对油基钻屑成分和组分性质复杂多变、热解化学反应过程复杂,热解析设备能耗高、热解温度不确定、进料物性不稳定、不均匀性等问题,建议开展油基钻屑复杂体系在移动床中动态连续热解的动力学及机理分析,建立动力学模型,明确不同组分油基钻屑的最优热解析工艺参数;建立技术经济效益、环境效益及可持续发展等评价体系和准则,为不同体系油基钻屑的高效低耗安全环保热解析现场随钻处理提供科学可靠依据和理论支撑。     

最佳DEM分辨率的确定及其验证分析

在玛尔挡地区格网DEM的数据上选择实验样区,以不同分辨率情况下DEM数据对地表模拟表达的逼近程度为研究对象,最优逼近时的栅格单元大小的临界值就是所求的最佳分辨率。在分析坡度中误差法和公式法等常见方法的基础上,借鉴坡度中误差的思想,选取区域地形粗糙度K、剖面线长度SL两个定量指标来综合分析确定该地区格网DEM的最佳分辨率。在ArcGIS平台上对方法进行了实验验证,得出分别以2m和8m作为玛尔挡地区1∶10 000和1∶50 000 DEM生产时是最佳分辨率的结论。研究表明这种解决办法不仅可以克服GIS空间分析中DEM分辨率确定的盲目性和随意性,而且能确保基于DEM的各种空间分析的精度,为相关研究提供重要的参考价值。     

遗传算法在城市道路控制点标高优化设计中的应用

建立了进行城市道路控制点标高优化设计的数学模型。从这个数学模型的结构可以看出,这个模型是非线性的和不确定性的,采用传统的搜索方法不大可行,但遗传算法对解决这类问题十分有效。本文提出了遗传算法一种新的应用方面,结果表明,遗传算法或许是进行城市道路控制点标高优化设计中一种比较好的方法。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed is the article: Small-State Security in the Balkans . Aurel Braun. South American Development: A Geographical Introduction . Rosemary D. F. Bromley and Ray Bromley. Interregional Migration, National Policy and Social Justice . Gordon L. Clark. Marketing Architectural and Engineering Services . Weld Coxe. A Geography of the Third World . J. P. Dickenson, C. G. Clarke, W. T. S. Gould, R. M. Prothero, D. J. Siddle, C. T. Smith, E. M. Thomas-Hope, and A. G. Hodgkiss. Wildlife and Man in Texas: Environmental Change and Conservation . Robin W. Doughty. At the Sea's Edge . William T. Fox. Englewood Cliffs Geography and Ecology . I. P. Gerasimov. Urbanization in Contemporary Latin America. Critical Approaches to the Analysis of Urban Issues . Alan Gilbert in association with Jorge E. Hardoy and Ronaldo Ramírez, eds. The Coming of the Transactional City . Jean Gottmann. College Park Visions of City and Country: Prints and Photographs of Nineteenth-Century France . Bonnie L. Grad and Timothy A. Riggs. Worcester Soviet Geography Today: Physical Geography . N. A. Gvozdetskiy, ed. Adaptive Responses of Native Amazonians . Raymond B. Hames and William T. Vickers, eds. Urban and Regional Industrial Research: The Changing UK Data Base . Michael Healey, ed. Cuando se Acaban los Montes . Stanley Heckadon Moreno. A Panama Forest and Shore: Natural History and Amerindian Culture in Bocas del Toro . Burton L. Gordon. Pacific Grove Mozambique: From Colonialism to Revolution, 1900–1982 . Allen Isaacman and Barbara Isaacman. Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy . Robert G. Jensen, Theodore Shabad, and Arthur W. Wright, eds. The Changing Geography of the United Kingdom . R. J. Johnston and J. C. Doornkamp, eds. Pluralism and Political Geography—People, Territory and State . Nurit Kliot and Stanley Waterman, eds. Landmarks Preservation and the Property Tax . David Listokin. Irrigation Horticulture in Highland Guatemala: The Tablón System of Panajachel . Kent Mathewson. Her Space, Her Place: A Geography of Women . Mary Ellen Mazey and David R. Lee. Man, A Geomorphological Agent . Dov Nir. Dordrecht The Book of America: Inside the 50 States Today . Neal R. Peirce and Jerry Hagstrom. Rivers . Geoffrey E. Petts. Proceedings, United States/Australia Workshop on Design and Implementation of Computer-Based Geographic Information Systems . Donna Peuquet and John O'Callaghan, eds. Outdoor Recreational and Resource Management . John Pigram. Remaking the City: Social Science Perspectives on Urban Design . John S. Pipkin, Mark La Gory and Judith R. Blau, eds. The Crust of Our Earth: An Armchair Traveler's Guide to the New Geology . Chet Raymo. Englewood Cliffs Concepts and Themes in the Regional Geography of Canada J. Lewis Robinson. Vancouver Secondary Cities in Developing Countries: Policies for Diffusing Urbanization . Dennis A. Rondinelli. Beverly Hills Legal Foundations of Environmental Planning , Vol 1. J. G. Rose. Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes. Mobilizing Human Resources in the Arab World . R. Paul Shaw. Prairie Mosaic: An Ethnic Atlas of Rural North Dakota . William C. Sherman. The Future of Conflict in the 1980s . William J. Taylor, Jr. and Steven A. Maaranen, eds. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information . Edward R. Tufte. U.S. 40 Today: Thirty Years of landscape Change in America . Thomas R. Vale and Geraldine R. Vale. Madison Silent Violence: Food, Famine and Peasantry in Northern Nigeria . Michael Watts. Readings in Historic Preservation: Why? What? How? Norman Williams Jr., Edmund Kellogg and Frank Gilbert, eds.     

A theoretical inquiry into aspects of the structure and the management of ecological–economic systems

 We use the theory of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) to analyze hitherto unstudied questions about jointly determined ecological–economic systems. Two specific questions are examined. First, on the methodological front, we show how the theory of CTMCs can be used to effectively model dynamic and stochastic ecological–economic systems. Then, given recent concern about the sustainability of desirable states and lock-in into undesirable states, we partition the state space of our stylized ecological–economic system into good and bad states, and demonstrate the formal relationship between these two sets of states. Second, we discuss a way of looking at the task of managing ecological–economic systems that captures this formal link between the good and the bad states, and has other desirable properties.     

利用InSAR技术监测石油开采引起的地表形变

随着人类工业文明的不断发展,石油成为重要的化工资源。然而,石油开采带来的负面影响却日益凸显,如环境污染、资源枯竭、开采安全问题等。由石油开采导致的地面沉降则是这些问题里最不容忽视的,石油开采会导致油层中地下压力的减少,造成油层的紧密压实。当压密的数值达到一定量时,就会引起地表下沉。在城市区域内,地表形变会影响各种生产设施的安全使用。本文以国内某油田为试验对象,利用短基线集技术（SBAS）进行处理,对石油开采时引起的地表沉降进行监测,综合分析其地表形变速率、范围,以及地面变形影响因素,为生产单位和当地政府部门提供决策依据。     

Optimal Precursor Perturbations of El Ni?o in the Zebiak-Cane Model for Different Cost Functions

Optimal precursor perturbations of El Ni?o in the Zebiak-Cane model were explored for three different cost functions. For the different characteristics of the eastern-Pacific(EP) El Ni?o and the central-Pacific(CP) El Ni?o, three cost functions were defined as the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) evolutions at prediction time in the whole tropical Pacific, the Ni?o3 area, and the Ni?o4 area. For all three cost functions, there were two optimal precursors that developed into El Ni?o events, called Precursor I and Precursor Ⅱ. For Precursor Ⅰ, the SSTA component consisted of an east-west(positive-negative) dipole spanning the entire tropical Pacific basin and the thermocline depth anomaly pattern exhibited a tendency of deepening for the whole of the equatorial Pacific. Precursor I can develop into an EP-El Ni?o event, with the warmest SSTA occurring in the eastern tropical Pacific or into a mixed El Ni?o event that has features between EP-El Ni?o and CP-El Ni?o events. For Precursor Ⅱ, the thermocline deepened anomalously in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the amplitude of deepening was obviously larger than that of shoaling in the central and western equatorial Pacific. Precursor Ⅱ developed into a mixed El Ni?o event. Both the thermocline depth and wind anomaly played important roles in the development of Precursor Ⅰ and Precursor Ⅱ.     

多尺度多准则的遥感影像线状地物信息提取

针对传统低层次单个像元纯光谱的信息提取方法存在的不足,以ZY-3高分辨率遥感影像为数据源,依据"种内一致性最大、类间异质性最大"原则,提出了基于多尺度多准则的ZY-3影像线状地物信息提取方法。利用基于最优分割尺度的影像分割、面向对象线状地物目标信息的提取方法,实现了河流、水渠、道路等线状地物信息的提取,并通过实验分析验证了可行性、有效性。结果表明:构建的RMAS指数指标,可以作为多尺度分割中选择最优分割尺度的一种很好的指示器,所提方法不仅有效避免了分割斑块面积对分割结果评价的影响,还能够有效识别ZY-3影像中的线状地物信息,研究结果对高分辨率遥感影像处理尺度依赖的技术难点及线状地物信息提取等研究具有重要的参考价值。