Kinetic shear resistance,fluid pressures and radiation efficiency during seismic faulting

Summary During earthquake faulting, radiation efficiency and the degree stress relief are critically dependent on the kinetic shear resistance. This is often assumed to stay constant during slip, but geological evidence suggests that for moderate or large shallow earthquakes it may decrease dramatically to near-zero values once slip is initiated, either by melt formation or by transient increases in fluid pressure on the fault plane. The latter, probably more common process may arise partly through an interaction between temperature and water pressure, and partly through dilatancy recovery as shear stress is relieved. If the fault remains undrained, stress relief should be absolute with seismic efficiency reaching high values, so that stress drops give a measure of the level of tectonic shear stress in fault zones. Supporting evidence comes from the observation that apparent stress is generally about half the stress drop.     

利用双因素实验和单藻培养方法研究温度和盐度对短节硬毛藻(Chaetomorpha brachygona Harvey)生长发育的影响

提要 利用双因素实验和单藻培养等方法,对采自广东南澳岛的短节硬毛藻Chaetomorpha brachygona Harvey进行了研究。在不同温度和盐度条件下,对该硬毛藻的生长、活力以及形态进行了观察与测定。结果表明,温度和盐度对短节硬毛藻的生长均有一定影响,当温度为20℃时,藻体培养第3、6和12天活力分别为0.70—0.75Y、0.60—0.70Y和0.55—0.65Y,培养12天时藻体有生殖细胞形成,此温度有利于藻体维持活力;温度为25—30℃时,培养第3天时会大量形成生殖细胞;在盐度10、20、40和50时,藻体的生长与温度相关,即30℃>25℃>20℃;在盐度20—30时,藻体长度最大达4.55 cm;在盐度10—30时,更有利于藻体生长,整体趋势为20>30>10>40>50。因此,实验条件下,温度25—30℃、盐度10—30更利于短节硬毛藻的生长和形成生殖细胞。本实验表明,短节硬毛藻为暖水、广盐性种,有可能在我国南方海区大量生长并扩散,具有引发绿潮的潜力。     

A laboratory study on capillary sealing efficiency of Iranian shale and anhydrite caprocks

Caprock has the most important role in the long term safety of formation gas storage. The caprocks trap fluid accumulated beneath, contribute to lateral migration of this fluid and impede its upward migration. The rapid upward passage of invasive plumes due to buoyancy pressure is prevented by capillary pressure within these seal rocks. In the present study, two main seal rocks, from the Zagros basin in the southwest of Iran, a shale core sample of Asmari formation and an anhydrite core sample of Gachsaran formation, were provided. Absolute permeabilities of shale and anhydrite cores, considering the Klinkenberg effect, were measured as 6.09 × 10⁻¹⁸ and 0.89 × 10⁻¹⁸ m², respectively. Capillary sealing efficiency of the cores was investigated using gas breakthrough experiments. To do so, two distinct techniques including step by step and residual capillary pressure approaches were performed, using carbon dioxide, nitrogen and methane gases at temperatures of 70 and 90 °C, under confining pressures in the range 24.13–37.92 MPa. In the first technique, it was found that capillary breakthrough pressure of the cores varies in the range from 2.76 to 34.34 MPa. Moreover, the measurements indicated that after capillary breakthrough, gas effective permeabilities lie in range 1.85 × 10⁻²¹ – 1.66 × 10⁻¹⁹ m². In the second technique, the minimum capillary displacement pressure of shale varied from 0.66 to 1.45 MPa with the maximum effective permeability around 7.76 × 10⁻²¹ – 6.69 × 10⁻²⁰ m². The results indicate that anhydrite caprock of the Gachsaran formation provides proper capillary sealing efficacy, suitable for long term storage of the injected CO₂ plumes, due to its higher capillary breakthrough pressure and lower gas effective permeability.     

An Experimental Study on A Trapezoidal Pendulum Wave Energy Converter in Regular Waves

Experimental studies were conducted on a trapezoidal pendulum wave energy converter in regular waves. To obtain the incident wave height, the analytical method (AM) was used to separate the incident and reflected waves propagating in a wave flume by analysing wave records measured at two locations. The response amplitude operator (RAO), primary conversion efficiency and the total conversion efficiency of the wave energy converter were studied; furthermore, the power take-off damping coefficients corresponding to the load resistances in the experiment were also obtained. The findings demonstrate that the natural period for a pendulum wave energy converter is relatively large. A lower load resistance gives rise to a larger damping coefficient. The model shows relatively higher wave energy conversion efficiency in the range of 1.0?1.2 s for the incident wave period. The maximum primary conversion efficiency achieved was 55.5%, and the maximum overall conversion efficiency was 39.4%.     

北京一次积层混合云系结构和水分收支的数值模拟分析

本文利用中国气象科学研究院(CAMS)中尺度云分辨模式对2007年10月的一次积层混合云降水过程进行了数值模拟。利用模拟结果结合实测资料, 研究了积层混合云系的宏微观结构和降水特征, 并分析了云系的水分收支及降水效率。结果表明:积层混合云是导致此次北京降水的主要云型;积层混合云降水分布不均匀, 云系中微物理量的水平和垂直分布都不均匀, 具有混合相云的云物理结构。冷云降水过程占主导地位, 雪的融化对雨水的形成贡献最大。北京区域降水过程的主要水汽源地为黄海海面及蒙古国, 两支气流在陕西北部汇合后的西南气流将水汽输送到华北地区, 北京区域以外, 水汽和水凝物主要从西边界和南边界输送到域内。北京区域降水主要时段内, 水物质通量在水平方向上为净流入。对北京区域水汽、水凝物和总水物质的水分收支各项的估算表明, 水物质基本达到平衡。北京区域从2007年10月5日20时至6日14时, 总水成物降水效率、凝结率、凝华率及总水凝物降水效率分别为5.6%、4.77%、4.19%、44.9%。     

面向业务保障的省级气象广域网络优化升级

针对省级气象部门骨干网络存在一些普遍问题,如不同线路没有实现负载分担,备用线路往往带宽闲置;省市间"不对称路由"对远程视频会议等业务的效果有影响;没有针对不同的业务做带宽控制,不同业务间存在相互影响等,采取了一些技术手段。引入策略路由对数据传输进行分流,同时发挥出多条线路的效益,实现了负载分担,并克服了"不对称路由"的现象,保证视频会议的效果。引入一系列QoS(服务质量)策略,对线路上不同业务占用带宽进行管理,既保证实时数据传输和视频会议`等关键业务的带宽,同时又为其他业务提供了动态的带宽资源,充分利用现有的网络带宽。经过测试,整个网络的优化升级,达到了设计的预期目标,可以为其他部门网络设计提供较好的借鉴。     

农作物长势遥感监测业务化应用与研究进展

农作物长势监测可为田间管理提供及时的决策支持信息和早期估产提供依据。为了更好地研究作物生长过程中不同遥感监测作物长势方法的适用性,从多光谱遥感数据、高光谱遥感数据和微波遥感数据的应用及遥感监测指标与模型模拟方面综述了国内外农作物长势遥感监测研究及业务化应用的最新进展,指出了未来拟重点加强的研究任务,包括高时空分辨率和高光谱分辨率遥感数据的业务化技术、多遥感反演参数协同监测作物长势技术研发、基于遥感信息与作物过程模型的集合预报技术研究、全球尺度作物长势监测业务运行系统研发。     

MJO预报研究进展

热带大气季节内振荡 (Madden-Julian oscillation,MJO) 是次季节-季节时间尺度气候变率的支配模态。它不仅对低纬度地区天气气候产生重要影响,还能够通过经向传播和激发大气遥相关波列对中高纬度地区产生影响,是延伸期尺度最重要的可预报性来源。因此,MJO预报是次季节-季节气候预测中极为重要的部分,近年来受到国际学术界广泛关注。该文回顾了MJO预报发展历史,概述了当前国际上主要科研业务机构的MJO预报发展现状。目前基于统计方法和气候模式的MJO预报研究取得了较大进展,特别是多个耦合气候模式和一种基于时空投影方法的统计模型均能够显著提升MJO预报技巧 (有效预报可达20 d以上)。该文还介绍了中国气象局国家气候中心在MJO预报技术发展和业务系统研制方面的新进展,当前基于第2代大气环流模式的MJO业务预报填补了国内空白,技巧为16~17 d,而耦合气候模式试验的技巧已达到约20 d。总体来看,利用耦合模式预报MJO是未来发展的主要方向,其中,面向MJO的模式初始化和集合预报新方法研究将是关注重点。     

基于MICAPS 3核心的人影业务平台设计与开发

文章主要介绍了基于MICAPS 3.2系统框架的人工影响天气业务平台的设计与开发.首先介绍了MICAPS 3.2的主要功能、模块设计特点以及主要的系统接口情况.其次介绍了人工影响天气的工作流程、工作内容以及主要产品并指出不同类型的数据在该系统中的交互方法.最后,针对人影工作特点设计菜单和界面布局,完成系统开发设计,并展示了开发完成后人影业务主要产品的例子.     

Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system

A standard skill assessment(SA) tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of operational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system.The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations,and involved the computation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills.User-and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system.To achieve this,the tool produced a time series comparison plot,a skill score table,and an advanced summarized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores.Moreover,the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables.For the atmospheric variables,acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales,since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance.Conversely,for the hydrodynamic variables,acceptable root mean square percentage error(e.g.,p erms) criteria were preferable to acceptable error(e.g.,erms) criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula.Furthermore,the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency(fc) for which errors fell within the specified limits(i.e.,the fc equals 70%).