国家气象中心数值预报业务的进展

在最近的１５年中，国家气象中心的数值预报业务高速度发展，预报模式从北半球模式发展为全球谱模式，并配套建立了资料同化系统和用于降水预报的有限区预报模式，暴雨和台风预报模式正在研制中。目前数值预报时效已延至７天，Ｔ６３９３丙上时的预报水平已优于的数值预报产品的应用技术在不断改进，最高（低）气温下两天ＭＯＳ预报精度已接近预报员制作的综合预报结果。     

船舶气象导航随船验证

通过横流太平洋往返两个航次随船调查，研究了采用气象导航对减少燃油消耗和保证船舶安全、班期等，不但有定的经济效益，而且是一种非常有效的航运管理方法。     

新疆前兆震群ρ值的研究

研究新疆伊宁——乌鲁木齐和乌什——库尔勒1972年以来发生的49个震群的ρ值表明,ρ<0.55可作为前兆震群的判据指标。分析了ρ<0.55标准下的前兆震群的预测能力,认为,震群序列的ρ值具有一定的预报效能。     

有限区域短期数值预报业务系统简介

简要介绍了空军气象中心投入业务使用的《空军有限区域短期数值预报业务系统》的概况、采用的主要技术，检验评分结果，最后给出了天气学个例检验结果。     

美国长期天气预报业务的新发展──发布气候展望

从１９９５年元月份起，美国天气局正式发布预见期为一年的业务性气候展望，该文简要地介绍了美国天气局作出这些重大变更的科学依据、预报方法、预报制作与预报准确等方面的情况。     

The development of computer networks: First results from a microeconomic model

 Computer networks like the Internet are gaining importance in social and economic life. The accelerating pace of the adoption of network technologies for business purposes is a rather recent phenomenon. Many applications are still in the early, sometimes even experimental, phase. Nevertheless, it seems to be certain that networks will change the socioeconomic structures we know today. This is the background for our special interest in the development of networks, in the role of spatial factors influencing the formation of networks, and consequences of networks on spatial structures, and in the role of externalities. This paper discusses a simple economic model – based on a microeconomic calculus – that incorporates the main factors that generate the growth of computer networks. The paper provides analytic results about the generation of computer networks. The paper discusses (1) under what conditions economic factors will initiate the process of network formation, (2) the relationship between individual and social evaluation, and (3) the efficiency of a network that is generated based on economic mechanisms. Received: 5 July 2000 / Accepted: 28 November 2000     

昭苏县防雹雷达站防雹业务技术规程

在总结昭苏县25年雷达探测冰雹云和指挥防雹作业技术的基础上，研究并编写了昭苏县防雹雷达站防雹业务技术规程，本文扼要介绍雷达观测、雹云识别、作业指挥，效果分析等部分主要技术规程。     

Ozone Production Efficiency in Savanna and Forested Areas during the EXPRESSO Experiment

NO, NO_x, NO_y and O₃ have been measuredduring the airborne EXPRESSO experiment, November 96,which took place near Bangui (Central Africa) at thebeginning of the dry season. This period correspondsto an intense burning activity. Chemical andphotochemical characteristics of the planetaryboundary layer, which corresponds most of the time tothe monsoon layer, and the Harmattan layer, which issituated above the latter, have been studied forsavanna as well as rain forest areas. These two layersare very different when considering the chemicalcomposition (especially for ozone and NO_z) andthe photochemical age.The relationship of photochemical ozone productionversus photochemical NO_x oxidation products hasbeen investigated. Results indicate an ozoneproduction efficiency (OPE) ranging from 6.3 to 14.8in the planetary boundary layer. Thus, this layer ischaracteristic of a photochemically young and activeair mass. In this layer, the ozone potentialproduction increases with the air mass photochemicalage. On the other hand, the Harmattan layer shows anOPE ranging from 4.6 to 7.4. These values arecharacteristic of photochemically well-aged airmasses. In this layer, the ozone potential productionseems to be exhausted with values around 4.0 (i.e., 4ozone molecules produced for each NO_x moleculeemitted).     

一个有限差分大气环流模式的并行效率

适合于大规模并行处理机（ＭＰＰ）的中国科学院大气物理研究所新一代九层大气环流模式（ＩＡＰ ９Ｌ ＡＧＣＭ）被发展成功。本文描述了并行模式的设计原则，给出了该模式的并行版本在我国几种主要的并行机上的并行执行效率数据。采用消息传递方式（ＭＰＩ）的区域分解方法用于实现程序的并行，结果表明，对于该模式，只有一维区域分解方法才能取得较好的并行可扩展性，即随着处理器的增加而能得到相应较好的并行加速比和并行效率。     

测震学多项指标综合预测概率分析

通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研，为进一步提取前兆信息，选择了7项测震学指标：频次、地震蠕变、6值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比，进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系，得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重，按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果（1970年以来）表明，对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的R值评估超过0.5。