GNSS流动观测水平速度精度评估

利用GNSS连续观测数据评估了GNSS流动观测水平速度精度,并分析了相邻两期观测时间差、每期观测时长、观测周期对水平速度精度的影响。结果表明：按照目前的观测模式,流动观测与连续观测得到的水平速度值之差的绝对值在3 mm/a以内;相邻两期观测时间不一致会影响流动观测水平速度的精度,如果绝对值在3 mm/a以内的速度差为可接受值,那么建议相邻两期观测时期差应控制在25天之内;延长每期观测时间和缩短观测周期能提高流动观测水平速度精度。     

海潮误差对GRACE时变重力场解算的影响研究

海潮误差是GRACE时变重力场反演中重要的误差源,目前发布的海潮模型中主要包含振幅较大的主潮波分量模型,在时变重力场反演中次潮波的影响也是不可忽略的,因此,GRACE时变重力场反演中的海潮误差主要包括受限于海潮模型误差和次潮波影响.本文利用轨道模拟方法检测了短周期潮波的混频周期以及次潮波对ΔC20,ΔC30的时序特征,并进一步通过轨道模拟结果分析了海潮误差对时变重力场反演的影响,然后通过实测数据解算分析了海潮误差对当前GRACE时变重力场解算的影响,研究发现:(1)利用轨道模拟能够有效地检测短周期潮波的混频周期;(2)时变重力场解算过程中,次潮波的影响大于海潮模型误差的影响;(3)海潮模型误差以及次潮波影响是当前GRACE没有达到基准精度的重要因素之一.     

前兆观测资料与地震活动时间序列的Morlet小波变换及相关性分析

Morlet小波在时、频两域都具有良好的局部性,是对时间序列进行多尺度分析和局部特性研究常用的小波变换方法。本文运用Morlet小波变换分析了云南省大理市下关水化站1990~2013年期间水氡、水汞、流量、气压和固体CO2月均值时间序列的变化特征,并与同时期大理市附近50km以内ML2.0~2.9、100km以内ML3.0~3.9、200km以内ML4.0~4.9和600km以内MS≥5.0地震活动月频度的Morlet小波变换特征进行了对比研究,分别计算了5项前兆资料月均值与4个震级范围地震活动月频度的小波平方模之间的相关系数,并对其相关性进行了探讨。     

Northern Aegean Earthquake (Mw=6.9): Observations at three seismic downhole arrays in Istanbul

The Northern Aegean Earthquake (M_w=6.9\M_L=6.5) took place on May 24, 2014 between the islands of Gokceada, Turkey and Samothraki, Greece. The tremors were felt as far as in Istanbul, about 300 km on the East – Northeast (ENE) side of the epicenter. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) of Bogazici University, Turkey operate three downhole arrays in Istanbul, namely Atakoy (ATK), Fatih (FTH) and Zeytinburnu (ZYT) arrays. In this study, waveforms and site response observed at the KOERI operated seismic downhole arrays during the May 2014 Northern Aegean Earthquake (NAE2014) are analyzed in detail and presented. Evaluation of the acceleration records have shown low amplitude but long period and long duration motions at Istanbul. Furthermore, the analyses of the recordings suggest that V_s30 alone may not be a sufficient parameter for the characterization of site amplification.     

Seasonal changes in runoff generation in a small forested mountain catchment

This study aimed to investigate the seasonal variability of runoff generation processes, the sources of stream water, and the controls on the contribution of event water to streamflow for a small forested catchment in the Italian pre‐Alps. Hydrometric, isotopic, and electrical conductivity data collected between August 2012 and August 2013 revealed a marked seasonal variability in runoff responses. Noticeable differences in runoff coefficients and hydrological dynamics between summer and fall/spring rainfall events were related to antecedent moisture conditions and event size. Two‐component and three‐component hydrograph separation and end‐member mixing analysis showed an increase in event water contributions to streamflow with event size and average rainfall intensity. Event water fractions were larger during dry conditions in the summer, suggesting that stormflow generation in the summer consisted predominantly of direct channel precipitation and some saturated overland flow from the riparian zone. On the contrary, groundwater and hillslope soil water contributions dominated the streamflow response during wet conditions in fall. Seasonal differences were also noted between event water fractions computed based on isotopic and electrical conductivity data, likely because of the dilution effect during the wetter months. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

综合石油地质、历史地震等资料评估吉林孤店隐伏断裂的地震危险性

在对松原地区开展的活断裂探测工作中发现了一条晚更新世活动断裂,称之为孤店断裂。本文通过三维地震资料获得了孤店隐伏活动断裂的地下细部结构,在对其地质构造、第四纪活动性、历史地震记录及地震活动性等进行综合研究的基础上,采用石油物探三维地震资料获得的基岩破裂长度进行经验关系拟合,对其潜在地震最大震级进行了评估,评估结果认为其约为M_W7。此外,采用地震矩方法获得复发周期、年发生率等定量参数,利用中国大陆古地震复发概率模型估算出孤店断裂未来50~200a的大地震发生概率。     

不同的地震动输入面对地震反应分析结果的影响

利用目前工程抗震设防上广泛应用的土层地震反应计算分析软件,对成都某典型卵石场地剖面进行了计算,得到了不同输入地震强度下的地震反应分析结果随不同地震动输入面的变化规律。结果表明,无论是地表加速度峰值,还是反应谱特征周期,在相同的地震动强度输入下,均是随着地震动输入面的变深而增大,其中加速度峰值最大增加20%以上,反应谱特征周期最大增加10%以上。此结论可为工程抗震设计人员获得科学合理的结构设计提供参考。     

气候变化对藏东北牧业生产关键期的影响

利用藏东北10个气象站1961-2013年逐日平均气温资料,采用反距离权重插值法、线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了牧草生长季(PGS)、牧草青草期(GGD)、牲畜抓膘期(FD)和牲畜掉膘期(FLD)等牧业生产关键期的时空变化,预估了未来50 a和100 a牧业生产关键期的变化.结果表明:近53 a PGS因结束日推迟而延长1.70 d·(10a)^-1,GGD平均每10 a延长1.53 d,牲畜抓膘开始期线性趋势不明显,结束期趋于推迟,FD平均每10 a延长1.84 d;牲畜掉膘开始日期显著推迟,结束日明显提前,FLD以-4.33 d·(10a)^-1的速度显著缩短.PGS的变化趋势与经度呈正相关,与海拔高度为负相关.PGS突变发生较早,出现在1998年;2005年是GGD明显变长的突变点,而FD和FLD的突变时间均发生在2003年.在10 a年际变化尺度上,近30 a PGS、GGD和FD呈逐年代增加趋势,而FLD趋于减少.如果气候按升温率0.044℃·a^-1变化,50 a后PGS、GGD和FD分别延长20.2、18.4和21.6 d,FLD缩短23.2 d;未来100 a PGS、GGD和FD可能分别延长40.3、36.9和43.2 d,FLD缩短46.5 d.这种变化趋势十分有利于藏东北牧草生产.     

分散可溶有机质的气源意义

广泛分布在烃源岩及输导通道中的分散可溶有机质作为一种新的气源逐渐受到重视。分散可溶有机质成气不仅关系到原油的消耗, 还关系到天然气的资源评价结果, 因而定量评价这一过程对油气勘探有着重要意义。笔者总结对比了传统成烃模式与考虑分散可溶有机质成气模式的异同, 建立了分散可溶有机质成气的地质模型, 初步计算了塔里木盆地分散可溶有机质的成气量。指出分散可溶有机质这一气源使得地层成气区域突破了烃源岩的分布范围, 成气中心向构造高部位偏移, 成气期推迟。计算得到塔里木盆地分散可溶有机质成气模式中源内分散可溶有机质裂解成气与源外的比例为1:2.88, 在成气晚期白垩纪末至现今这一阶段油裂解成气量为799 千亿m³, 是传统油成气模式的4.23倍。     

The hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake during the initial period of Three Gorges Project operation

Based on the measured hydrological data from 1951 to 2008, the chain hydrological effect between Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake is analyzed by comparative method after the Three Gorges Project operation. The result indicates that 1) the scouring amount in Jingjiang River made up 78.9% of the total from Yichang to Chenglingji, and its average scouring intensity was higher than the latter; 2) the water and sand diversion rates at the three outlets of the Jingjiang River were reduced by 2.33% and 2.78% separately; 3) the proportion of multi-year average runoff and sediment through the three outlets in the total into the Dongting Lake decreased by 7.7% and 24.4% respectively; 4) in Dongting Lake, the speed of sediment accumulation was lowered by 26.7%, in flood season, the runoff amount was 20.2% less than the multi-year average value, leading to seasonal scarcity of water year by year. The former prolonged the lake life, while the latter induced droughts in summer and fall in successive years, shortage of drinking and industrial water, shipping insecurity, as well as ecological problems such as decrease of birds and quick increase of Microtus fortis; 5) The multi-year average values of sediment and flood transporting capacity at the lake outlet were respectively increased by 26.6% and 3.7%, the embankments were protected effectively. Then, to adapt to the new change of the river-lake relation, some suggestions were put forward, such as optimizing further operation program of the Three Gorges Reservoir, reexamining the idea of river and lake regulation, and maintaining connection of the river and the lake.