Barotropic local instability and severe storm process

By means of barotropic model, the characteristic and initial value problems are investigated to reveal the local two-dimensional barotropic instability of the nonuniform current to the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the Yangtze-Huaihe River severe storm in July 1991. Analytical theory and numerical experiment show that (i) the unstable developing modes are chiefly the two periods of about 44 d and 10 d, which are fundamentally consistent with that of the precipitation change of the Yangtze-Huaihe River. (ii) The growth rate of the local perturbation is dominated by the meridional wave numbern = 1–5 and zonal wave numberk = 1–12, i.e. the severe storm over the Yangtze-Huaihe River results from the interaction of the systems at different latitudes and waves of different scales, (iii) The perturbation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River possesses the property of local intensification, which slowly migrates westward over the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze-Huaihe River. (iv) The growth rate of the instability, especially the propagation velocity of the perturbation, is sensitive to the external parameters ū and α. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

提高地方地震台网地震速报水平初探

总结了西昌遥测地震台网地震速报处理技术经验，针对地方台网地震速报中常出现的地震参数误差提出了改进思路。     

内蒙古地区地震活动度S值特征分析

采用定量描述地震活动强弱程度的地震活动度方法，研究了内蒙古地区1970年以来中强地震的分布特征和活动规律，发现内蒙古地区S值存在5年周期的起伏活动规律。在分区研究区的基础上，内蒙古地区从西到东，地震活动度S值呈现有规律的强一弱交替特征。     

O(T2)精度下椭球界面Dirichlet边值问题的积分解

研究了边界是参考椭球面的Laplace方程Dirichlet边值问题的求解，在O(ε4·T)精 度下给出了参考椭球界面上扰动重力位Dirichlet外问题的积分解式. 该结果理论上优于目 前常用的球近似下的积分解式，从而为研究物理大地测量中边值问题的求解提供了新的依据     

基于生态经济理论的生态需水计算方法研究

在简述生态需水研究现状的基础上,结合以可持续发展为基础的生态经济理论,提出了基于生态经济思想的生态需水概念,并进行了理论分析.根据生态经济领域中的生态价值理论,确定不同生态需水量条件下的生态价值,进而通过水资源的生态价值与经济价值之间的相互关系确定合适的生态需水量,并通过实例对该方法的具体步骤进行了说明,认为由该法所确定的生态需水量符合客观实际,可以作为生态建设过程中生态需水研究的方法之一.该法通过水资源将生态系统和经济系统联系在一起,对于研究可持续发展条件下的水资源利用有一定的现实意义.     

第二松花江流域水电厂综合中长期水文预报的分析研究

基于对第二松花江流域上游小山、松山、两江水电站中长期水文预报研究成果，论述了综合中长期水文预报的研究思路和定性预报、定量预报的分析研究方法。该研究通过2002年实践检验，具有较高的预报精度。     

月壤的物理和机械性质

月壤是在O2、水、风和生命活动都不存在的情况下，由陨石和微陨石撞击、宇宙射线和太阳风轰击、月表温差导致岩石热胀冷缩破碎等因素的共同作用下形成的。月壤独特的形成过程，加上独特的月表环境，使月壤在粒度分布、颗粒形态、颗粒比重、孔隙比和孔隙率、电性和电磁性质、压缩性、抗剪性、承载力等方面均与地球土壤存在较大差异，这些参数的平均值和最佳估计值，可以作为月表机械设计和操作、宇航员装备设计、月球着陆场选址的主要依据，对月球资源开发和利用以及月球基地建设具有极其重要的意义。     

某滑坡软弱夹层抗剪强度取值方法的研究

文章主要针对软弱夹层抗剪强度取值所存在的争议，通过对贵州新街子滑坡的软弱夹层分别选择比例极限、屈服极限及峰值作为剪应力值，采用最小二乘法获得比例抗剪强度、屈服抗剪强度和峰值抗剪强度。以参数选取中应用较为成熟的反分析方法推求力学性质参数c、φ值作为判据对以上3种参数进行比较。计算结果表明：本滑坡软弱夹层中由于含泥量较大，而且粘塑性较强，屈服抗剪强度和反分析得到的抗剪强度偏差最小，比例抗剪强度偏差最大，峰值抗剪强度居中。并以此3种抗剪强度进行天然状态下滑坡稳定性验算，结果表明选用比例极限抗剪强度与当前滑坡的地质现象不符，选用峰值极限抗剪强度安全储备较低，而选取屈服极限抗剪强度最为合理。用此参数进行设计，滑坡已经得到了良好的治理。在取值研究中认为采用试验与反分析相结合的方法确定滑坡稳定性计算参数是比较合理的。以上结论为滑坡中软弱夹层抗剪强度取值的选择提供了重要的依据。     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青海省祁漫塔格地区1∶5万水系沉积物测量衬值异常圈定实例

青海省祁漫塔格地区位于柴达木盆地西南缘,是青海省重要的铁多金属成矿基地之一。利用88442个野外采样点1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据,采用Geo Expl软件圈定了该地区的衬值异常。衬值是指各元素0.5 km×0.5 km网格化数据与其园域搜索半径5km、移动步长0.5km移动平均值的比值。选用自定义累频"90、95、98、100"确定了异常的外、中、内带。通过常规方法和衬值圈定的异常的对比,表明衬值异常能够削弱不同地质背景差异,使异常形态更为规整,浓集中心更为明显,并且可能发现新异常。