天然气水合物储层岩心保压转移与测试进展

掌握天然气水合物储层基础物性演化特征对提升天然气水合物资源勘查与试采综合实力具有重要意义。目前,天然气水合物储层基础物性模拟实验和测试仍然以人工制备的天然气水合物岩心样品为主,导致测试结果和模拟实验认识与天然气水合物资源勘查试采工程需求仍有一定的差距,亟需原位准原位物性测试数据进行对比校正。天然气水合物储层保压取心及其后续岩心保压转移与测试是积累准原位物性测试数据的有力手段。聚焦天然气水合物储层保压取心之后的岩心保压转移与测试,全面综述了国内外现有的天然气水合物储层岩心保压转移与测试系统的优缺点,深入分析了天然气水合物储层岩心保压转移与测试获得的基础性认识;综述国内天然气水合物储层保压取心系统研发现状,梳理与之配套的岩心保压转移与测试系统研发现状及其面临的挑战;针对面临的挑战,为发展中国海域天然气水合物储层保压转移与测试技术装备研发自主能力提出了建议。     

我国核电厂设计中考虑的自然灾害综述与建议

我国是目前世界在建核电机组最多的国家,总装机容量世界第三,是名副其实的核大国,核安全是国家安全的重要内容,被提到了前所未有的高度。同时,我国也是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,包括核电厂在内的重大工程建设高度重视自然灾害防御设计。日本311地震海啸引起福岛核事故后,核电厂设计中增强了对超设计基准自然灾害的考虑。本文对核电厂防御自然灾害的必要性、核电厂设计中需考虑的自然灾害及国内外核电厂关于防御自然灾害存在的问题进行研究,提出我国核电厂防御自然灾害的建议。     

菲律宾自然灾害研究及抗灾能力脆弱原因分析

菲律宾长期遭受各类自然灾害的侵袭,损失惨重。2010年菲政府颁布政令致力于发展国家自然灾害响应体系,建立了一套自上而下的自然灾害响应机制。本文从政策与规范、响应计划和响应流程3个方面对菲律宾国家自然灾害响应机制开展研究,结合菲政府应对超级台风“海马”的案例,总结分析菲政府在应对自然灾害中的经验与教训。     

Material selection for the gas containment system of a compressed natural gas carrier fleet

In this work, the possible exploitation of fiber-reinforced composites in the context of maritime transportation of compressed natural gas (CNG) is investigated. In addition to a more conventional steel configuration, two different fiber materials, carbon and glass, are considered as construction materials for pressure vessels (PVs) to be stored on board ships, with thickness optimized by FEM analysis.The considered scenario is represented by the transportation of CNG from an offshore well to a terminal on shore. Fleets of ships carrying CNG in pressure vessels manufactured with the investigated materials are generated by means of a ship synthesis model (SSM) software and compared on the basis of technical and economical indicators.The choice of the construction material influences considerably the weight of the PVs, which represent a major item of total ship weight and reflects directly on the general transport performances in terms of resistance, seakeeping and reliability in the service. On the other hand, capital as well as operating expenditures are considerably affected by the choice. When exploring the design space, the ship synthesis model is able, at a preliminary stage of the design, to account for the various technical and economical aspects, their implications and relationships. Results are presented of computations carried out in a specific case, identified by the annual gas production and other characteristics of the well terminal and a cruising route for the ships. The comparison is carried out on the basis of the cost per transported unit of gas and of the percentage of success in the transportation process. The computations show that the choice of the PV material has a key influence on the results in terms of optimal number, dimensions and speed of the ships.     

A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.     

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large‐scale poroelastic fractured reservoirs modeling using the fast multipole displacement discontinuity method

An effective approach to modeling the geomechanical behavior of the network and its permeability variation is to use a poroelastic displacement discontinuity method (DDM). However, the approach becomes rather computationally intensive for an extensive system of cracks, particularly when considering coupled diffusion/deformation processes. This is because of additional unknowns and the need for time‐marching schemes for the numerical integration. The Fast Multipole Method (FMM) is a technique that can accelerate the solution of large fracture problems with linear complexity with the number of unknowns both in memory and CPU time. Previous works combining DDM and FMM for large‐scale problems have accounted only for elastic rocks, neglecting the fluid leak‐off from the fractures into the matrix and its influence on pore pressure and stress field. In this work we develop an efficient geomechanical model for large‐scale natural fracture networks in poroelastic reservoirs with fracture flow in response to injection and production operations. Accuracy and computational performance of the proposed method with those of conventional poroelastic DDM are compared through several case studies involving up to several tens of thousands of boundary elements. The results show the effectiveness of the FMM approach to successfully evaluate field‐scale problems for the design of exploitation strategies in unconventional geothermal and petroleum reservoirs. An example considering faults reveals the impact of reservoir compartmentalization because of sealing faults for both geomechanical and flow variables under elastic and poroelastic rocks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

齐齐哈尔市地理国情分析与表达

以齐齐哈尔市为例,利用地理国情普查数据与统计年鉴数据,构建自然地表指数、地理区位指数、生态覆被指数,对齐齐哈尔市各县、区的地理国情进行综合分析和地图表达。结果表明,齐齐哈尔市的总体条件较好,但区域差异较大,自然地表条件与地理区位条件均以中部的齐齐哈尔市辖区为优,而生态覆被条件则以北部和西部地区为优。     

雅安芦山4.20震后县级单元生态系统风险评价

区域生态风险评价是对各种生态风险及环境问题进行评价和管理的重要手段。针对雅安地震灾区特殊的自然地理及生态环境特征,选取芦山县为研究对象,采用遥感、GIS及SPSS统计分析的方法,通过风险源、风险受体、暴露和易损性分析,建立生态风险综合评价模型,划分生态风险区类型,进而提出生态风险管理对策。结果表明:1)微度和低度生态风险区集中分布在高海拔的森林及草地生态系统,该区生物多样性丰富,抗干扰能力较强,地质灾害及人类活动影响较小;2)中度和高度生态风险区具有沿农田及建设用地生态系统集聚分布的特征,该区地质灾害频繁,地壳活动性较强,生态系统抵抗灾害的能力较差。研究结果可为地震灾区防御、规避风险及安全选址提供科学依据。