Unsiting Nuclear Power Plants: Decommissioning Risks and Their Land Use Context*

Nuclear power plant siting provided the first significant public opportunity to examine nuclear safety and to affect nuclear policy. These discussions were prompted and fueled by perceptions of nuclear risk. Now, as we begin the process of nuclear decommissioning, we are finding that power plant removal—unsiting–is also likely to attract public interest. This paper presents a preliminary survey of how we are likely to react to this emerging theme, applying these findings within a land use context to see if it is likely to produce issues salient to the public. In so doing it also examines how these issues could affect decommissioning timing and type. It suggests that the most likely prospect is that power plants will remain on the landscape long after they are closed.     

全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。     

自然灾害研究中几个观念问题的讨论

本文从人类生活环境系统的整体观角度讨论了自然灾害的两重性、关连性及人类圈之形成和生态环境保护问题。认为自然灾害从短时间尺度和小范围看是灾变, 从长时间尺度和大范围看是一种自调节、自平衡过程；自然灾害与人类社会存在着双向效应关系；自然灾害的关联性(群发共生现象)是由其同源性、链发性和韵律性决定的；人类圈是地球演化进入新阶段的产物, 它具有进行层次深、作用强度高、活动领域宽和通过信息实现调控的特点。建立上述观念, 对灾害研究、减轻灾害损失, 走可持续发展的道路, 都具有重要意义。     

中国西部地区全新世自然环境演变序列与特征

根据湖泊、山地冰川、黄土与古土壤序列、泥炭及沙漠演变等多种地质记录的综合对比分析，重建和恢复了我国酉部地区全新世以来的自然环境演变序列及特征。全新世期间我国西部地区环境演变存在着以水热配置关系不同为突出特征的两种不同的演变模式：即以新疆北部地区为代表的西风型和以青海湖及青藏高原为代表的季风型模式。其成因同区域性特征及大气环流形势密切相关。并划分出我国西部地区全新世自然环境演变过程中的几个重要时间界线，即距今１２ｋａ或１０ｋａ、９ｋａ、３ｋａ和０．５ｋａ。众多地质记录间良好的对比关系对于深入理解我国西部全新世气候环境的演变过程，预测其变化趋向具有十分重要的意义。     

The Best Natural Boundary:a New Concept Developed by Combining the Sequence Boundary with the GSSP

Through a detailed study of sequence boundaries, it is concluded that sequence stratigraphy is an independent regional and transitional stratigraphic system between local lithostratigraphy and global chronostratigraphy. Therefore, a new tripartite stratigraphic classification scheme has been proposed. By combining organically the concept of sequence boundaries with the GSSP, it is suggested that the GSSP should be chosen in a conformale portion of a related sequence boundary, and the boundary established in light of this concept is defined as the Best Natural Boundary (BNB). The definition of the BNB points out the working area and stratigraphic level for the GSSP. By referring to a case study of the Permian Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary, the concept of the BNB has been elaborated in detail, and it is proposed that the BNB of the Guadalupian and the Lopingian lies between the Mesogondolella granti Zone and the Ctarkina postbitteri Zone, which is also the sequence chronostratigraphic boundary between th     

极谱催化波测定天然水中微量锗的研究

系统研究了Ｇｅ－ＡＲＳ－Ｈ２Ｃ２Ｏ４－Ｖ体系报道极谱催化波的影响因素，测定了Ｇｅ－ＡＲＳ－Ｈ２Ｃ２Ｏ４三元配合物的配合比为１：２：１。实验初步证明了该体系催化波为具有吸附性质的平行催化波。本法检出限为０．１４ｍｇ．ｍＬ＾－１，相对标准偏差小于９．８９％，标准回收率为９３．７０％－１０９．０％，０－５０ｍｇ．ｍＬ＾－１的锗具有良好的线性关系。     

瞬变电磁场的奇点展开法

在分析电磁系统自然谐振现象的基础上,简述了瞬变电磁场奇点展开法的物理基础、基本理论、极点提取方法,并考查了奇点展开法在地球物理中的应用可能性。     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996     

甘肃省东南部未来地震危险区的模式识别

在综合分析甘肃省东南部地震地质特征的基础上，利用模式识别方法判定未来地震危险区的可能位置．结果表明，本区易发生地震的地点与全新世断裂强烈活动段相吻合，从而提高了对未来地震危险区判定的可信度     

我国抗灾建设与防灾对策之研究

本文根据我年来研究国内外防灾经验，分析了我国自然灾害的基本现状，总结了建国以来的减灾工作状况，提出了经济发展听防灾之对策，为下世纪我国抗灾策略提供了基本思路。