数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。     

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.     

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.     

Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的探讨

本文在文献[3]的基础上,进一步探讨了工程测量中原始数据误差对放样点精度影响的问题。首先,讨论了施工控制网中原始数据误差存在的形式、特点以及它们对放样点精度影响的传播规律,并建立了关于相对放样点位精度的矩阵公式。在此基础上,对现有的几种常用放样方法中原始数据误差的影响进行了分析和计算。结果表明,在施工放样测量工作中,应该密切注视原始数据误差的影响,并对此问题提出一些合理的建议。     

用相关系数估计导线点误差椭圆参数

用比例误差k和导线边数n所表示的坐标相关系数r,当导线走向α=45°时,误差椭圆大小、形状与相关系数之间存在一个简单的数学关系式,在导线设计时可用作精度估算。     

南极地区小象幅航测内业成图

本文阐述了用１２０型非量测相机对南极中山站地区所摄制的１４００００小象幅航片制作１５０００地形图、正射像片图及１１００００地形图的原理、方法和精度。在外定向中适当增加控制点及考虑到加入适当的权的情况下，其外定向最大对点误差平面为２．２ｍ，高程为１．２ｍ。所制作的正射像片图和相应的地形图套合中误差为０．１４ｍｍ。其结果完全可满足南极科研、考察的要求