黄土高原社会-生态系统恢复力时空变化特征与影响因素分析

社会-生态系统恢复力理论为可持续发展研究提供了新视角。从社会、经济、生态三大子系统,脆弱性和适应能力两大要素着手,建立社会-生态系统恢复力评价指标体系,采用集对分析法测度黄土高原2000—2018年各子系统及社会-生态系统恢复力,利用探索性空间数据分析法进行时空演变格局分析,并甄别社会-生态系统恢复力的主要影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2000—2018年社会-生态系统恢复力由0.522增强至0.721。社会恢复力由0.548增强至0.629后减弱至0.525;经济恢复力由0.401持续增强至0.850;生态恢复力由0.725减弱至0.607后增强至0.734,子系统恢复力演化趋势均不协同,经济系统与社会-生态系统恢复力演化趋势协同。经济系统恢复力的增强对于社会-生态系统恢复力增强具有显著促进作用。（2） 社会-生态系统恢复力出现显著空间集聚趋势,较高地区除省会城市和包头等能源富集区外,关中平原地区始终呈现高-高（H-H）集聚格局,其余地区恢复力普遍相对偏低。（3） 2000年以来黄土高原地区社会-生态系统恢复力生态维度障碍度始终高于社会和经济维度,不同地区指标层首要影响因素为人均GDP。     

真实感云的快速渲染算法的研究与实现

云是自然场景最常见的自然现象,然而其不规则的外观和复杂的运动使云的模拟难度很大。在分析和研究了元胞自动机建模方法的基础上,采用元胞自动机生成云的初始模型,通过billboard的自转简化云的运动算法,并将单向散射与多重散射相结合的方式构造云的光照模型。通过该方法提高了云渲染的效率,同时满足了云场景的真实性。实验结果表明,该算法能以较高的帧率实现云的仿真效果同时不失真实性。     

New multifunctional hunting landscapes in Denmark

Between 1992 and 2008 subsidization of mandatory set aside land under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) gave rise to the establishment of a characteristic type of multifunctional hunting landscapes in Denmark, primarily located on fallow land in tilled valley bottoms. A national survey of these landscapes in 2006 has been carried out and 1061 hunting areas have been identified nationwide. Subsidies relating to set aside land acted as a supplementary type of income, which supported the development of multifunctional land use on marginal soils where the income from hunting and subsidies in combination was a viable alternative to monofunctional rotational agriculture. Hunting landscapes developed as the consequence of landscape management strategies designed to comply with the requirements of the CAP while improving habitat conditions for wildlife and increasing income from hunting rental activities. Forty-seven percent of the hunting landscapes in 2006 were in rotational production in 2010 while 19% were used for other agricultural purposes and 34% were taken out of the subsidy regime and removed from the general agricultural register. In 2012, a total of 431 such areas ? 41% of the areas identified in 2006 ? were still used for hunting. The number and geographical distribution of the hunting landscapes seems closely related to the potential average hunting rent, the level of urbanisation and the occurrence of manorial estates with traditions for multifunctional land use as part of their economic strategy. Implications for the ongoing discussion on land use policy concerning land sharing vs. land sparing is discussed.     

福建海岸侵蚀风险评价研究

海岸侵蚀和淤积一直存在于海岸带系统内并塑造着现在的海岸线,近年来不当的人类活动以及全球气候变化加剧了海岸侵蚀,导致沿海土地流失,威胁人类生命财产安全。本文构建了海岸侵蚀风险评价理论体系,阐述了海岸侵蚀风险评价的方法,为海岸侵蚀风险管理提供有效指导。运用层析分析法确定评价指标权重;根据模糊集理论合成海岸侵蚀风险等级。以福建省海岸带为例,进行了海岸侵蚀风险评价,编绘了风险评价图,评价结果与客观情况比较吻合,验证了文中理论方法的适用性。本文构建的海岸侵蚀风险评价理论体系可以推广到其他区域,但应根据实际情况适当调整指标个数以及指标权重。     

卫星油田PI层组基于砂体发育的地震反射模式

卫星油田PI层组为该油田的主力油层组,层组内单砂层厚度较薄、空间连续性差。将PI层组纵向上划分为上、中、下3个组合单元,利用地震波形能够给以较好的反映。测井曲线具备好的沉积微相识别能力,将每个单元里存在河道或河坝砂体定义为砂体发育,不存在的定义为互层发育,考察卫星油田三维地震工区近100口井资料识别的沉积微相与地震波形的对应关系,建立8种地震波砂体反射模式,依据模式可有效推测出卫星油田PI层组勘探空白区的砂体发育状况,为该油田部署有利井位提供技术支撑。     

Joint exploration of regional importance of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainty in stability analysis

Stability analysis generally relies on the estimate of failure probability P. When information is scarce, incomplete, imprecise or vague, this estimate is imprecise. To represent epistemic uncertainty, possibility distributions have shown to be a more flexible tool than probability distributions. The joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic information can rely on more advanced techniques such as the classical random sampling of the cumulative probability distribution F and of the intervals from the possibility distributions π. The imprecise probability P is then associated with a random interval, which can be summarized by a pair of indicators bounding it. In the present paper, we propose a graphical tool to explore the sensitivity on these indicators. This is conducted by means of the contribution to sample probability of failure plot based on the ordering of the randomly generated levels of confidence associated with the quantiles of F and to the α-cuts of π. This presents several advantages: (1) the contribution of both types of uncertainty, aleatoric and epistemic, can be compared in a unique setting; (2) the analysis is conducted in a post-processing step, i.e. at no extra computational cost; (3) it allows highlighting the regions of the quantiles and of the nested intervals which contribute the most to the bounds of P. The method is applied on two case studies (a mine pillar and a steep slope stability analysis) to investigate the necessity for extra data acquisition on parameters whose imprecision can hardly be modelled by probabilities due to the scarcity of the available information (respectively the extraction ratio and the cliff geometry).     

基于集对分析的赣江中上游流域汛、枯水期分期研究

南方红壤丘陵区洪涝和季节性干旱灾害并存,合理划分汛、枯水期可为旱涝灾害防控提供科学依据。本文选取并统计赣江上中游国家气象站、水文站旬最大1日降水量、旬最大3日降水量、旬降水总量和旬平均流量,采用集对分析,将赣江上中游流域汛期划分为2月1~28日为汛前期,3月1~31日为前汛期,4月1日~6月30日为主汛期,7月1日~9月10日为汛后期,9月11日~次年1月31日为枯水期。集对分析汛期分期结果与传统汛期相近,理论基础完善,可用于赣江上中游流域水资源综合管理。     

A prediction model for overlying rock thickness of subsea tunnel: A hybrid intelligent system

Abstract

The overlying rock thickness of a subsea tunnel controls its vertical line. It not only ensures the safety and stability of tunnel construction period and operation period, but also ensures the economy of subsea tunnel. In the current research, few papers give full consideration to the complex indicators of prediction the overlying rock thickness. However, in this study, a hybrid intelligent system was established to predict the overlying rock thickness of a subsea tunnel based on Qingdao Kiaochow Bay Subsea Tunnel, China. The sea depth, basic quality index of rock mass, soft soil layer thickness, permeability coefficient, and construction management level were selected as the main factors influencing the overlying rock thickness. Using the data obtained from project site exploration, objective weight factors were calculated using rough set theory, and subjective weight factors were calculated using the analytic hierarchy process. Furthermore, the combination of weights was obtained for each factor. Finally, the weight of influencing factors was incorporated into the extension model, and the overlying rock thickness of pending section was calculated. The results of overlying rock thickness prediction model are consistent with the actual value, indicating that the model has good engineering applicability and application value.     

基于邻域粗糙集和支持向量机的固结系数预测

采用邻域粗糙集和支持向量机建立滹沱河某地区软土固结系数的预测模型。基于自行改装的渗透固结仪,利用公式法确定不同压力下的固结系数。通过室内试验确定土体的指标参数,采用邻域粗糙集对该指标参数进行属性约简,将约简后的指标参数作为影响因素,分别建立支持向量机和神经网络的固结系数预测模型,预测未知样本的固结系数,并与实测值进行对比。结果表明:公式法可以准确客观地确定固结系数;支持向量机和BP神经网络建立的该地区软土固结系数预测模型均可以预测区域内未知点的固结系数,且支持向量机方法的预测精度比神经网络方法的预测精度提高了约10%。本文提出的方法直接从实验数据出发,通过易获取的影响因素建立特定地区固结系数预测模型,并可预测该区域其余未知点的固结系数。