一种洪涝灾害事件信息建模方法

我国洪涝灾害频发且危害巨大,为有效防灾、减灾和救灾,需建立洪涝灾害事件信息模型,表示和共享洪涝灾害信息。然而,目前事件信息模型主要是表示静态信息,缺乏对洪涝灾害事件动态过程的表示。本文从观测角度出发,建立顾及洪涝灾害事件阶段和动态过程的洪涝灾害事件信息模型。围绕洪涝灾害事件信息模型,提出了10类需建模的元素,并以MOF（Meta Object Facility）建模框架构建了十元组模型,通过映射方法实现模型编码方案与事件模式语言的映射。最后,以2010年梁子湖洪涝灾害模拟为例,开展了模型分阶段建立过程实验。结果表明,本文提出的模型能表示洪涝灾害事件的动态信息和实现洪涝灾害事件的动态建模。     

Numerical modelling of the potential effects of a dam on a coastal aquifer in S. Spain

This study presents the results of a three‐dimensional variable‐density numerical modelling of the Motril‐Salobreña coastal aquifer and the possible effects of the entry into service in May 2005 of the Rules Dam, located just 17 km from the coast. Present parameters of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer show that the system's conditions are very similar to a natural regime. The dam will substantially alter aquifer recharge, as the entry flow through the alluvial sediments of the Guadalfeo River will be entirely cut off or drastically reduced. Different scenarios reproducing the possible evolution of the aquifer under operation of the Rules Dam have been modelled. In most cases, results indicate that the conditions of the aquifer would worsen, with a general advance of the freshwater–saltwater interface. The area with most risk of saltwater intrusion is the old mouth of the Guadalfeo River, where the mixing zone could advance 1200 m inland. It is proposed that maintaining a 5–6 Mm³ year^?1 ‘ecological flow’ in the Guadalfeo River could prevent this saline advance. This application demonstrates that variable‐density models are potentially useful tools for estimating the effects of dams on the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical conditions of a coastal aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exhumation during oblique transpression: The Feiran–Solaf region, Egypt

The Feiran–Solaf metamorphic complex of Sinai, Egypt, is one of the highest grade metamorphic complexes of a series of basement domes that crop out throughout the Arabian-Nubian Shield. In the Eastern Desert of Egypt these basement domes have been interpreted as metamorphic core complexes exhumed in extensional settings. For the Feiran–Solaf complex an interpretation of the exhumation mechanism is difficult to obtain with structural arguments as all of its margins are obliterated by post-tectonic granites. Here, metamorphic methods are used to investigate its tectonic history and show that the complex was characterized by a single metamorphic cycle experiencing peak metamorphism at ∼700–750 °C and 7–8 kbar and subsequent isothermal decompression to ∼4–5 kbar, followed by near isobaric cooling to 450 °C. Correlation of this metamorphic evolution with the deformation history shows that peak metamorphism occurred prior to the compressive deformation phase D ₂, while the compressive D ₂ and D ₃ deformation occurred during the near isothermal decompression phase of the P–T loop. We interpret the concurrence of decompression of the P–T path and compression by structural shortening as evidence for the Najd fault system exhuming the complex in an oblique transpressive regime. However, final exhumation from ∼15 km depth must have occurred due to an unrelated mechanism.     

An elastoplastic strainhardening model for soil allowing for hydraulic bonding–debonding effects

The paper presents a strainhardening constitutive model for unsaturated soil behaviour based on energy conjugated stress variables in the framework of superposed continua. The proposed constitutive law deals with hydro‐mechanical coupling phenomena. The main purpose is to develop within a consistent framework a model that can deal with possible mechanical instabilities occurring in partially saturated materials. The loss of capillary effects during wetting processes can, in fact, play a central role in unstable processes. Therefore, it will be shown that the bonding effects due to surface tensions can be described in a mathematical framework similar to that employed for bonded geomaterials to model weathering or diagenesis effects, either mechanically or chemically induced. The results of several simulations of common laboratory tests on partially saturated soil specimens are shown. The calculated behaviour appears to be in good qualitative agreement with that observed in the laboratory. In particular it is shown that volumetric collapse phenomena due to hydraulic debonding effects can be successfully described by the model. Finally, it will be highlighted the ability of the model to naturally capture the transition to a fully saturated condition and to deal with possible mechanical instabilities in the unsaturated regime. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the advance–retreat cycle of a tidewater glacier with simple sediment dynamics

We present a simple coupled glacier-sediment model to simulate the evolution of a tidewater glacier. The model is based on a consideration of the total mass budget of a glacier, whereas ice mechanics are fully parameterized. The calving rate at the glacier terminus is assumed to be proportional to the water depth. We show that the formation of a morainic shoal has a profound influence on the response of a tidewater glacier to climatic forcing. For a slow periodic forcing of the equilibrium-line altitude, the model glacier advances steadily into the estuary, builds up a submarine terminal moraine, and then retreats rapidly when a critical point is hit. For a slowly increasing equilibrium-line altitude, at a rate as low as 1 m per 5 years, we find terminus retreat rates of up to 10 km in 50 years. Our model suggests that, although the response of tidewater glaciers to external forcing is strongly nonlinear, the onset of retreat is controlled by climate change.     

The Venusian induced magnetosphere: A case study of plasma and magnetic field measurements on the Venus Express mission

Plasma and magnetic field measurements made onboard the Venus Express on June 1, 2006, are analyzed and compared with predictions of a global model. It is shown that in the orbit studied, the plasma and magnetic field observations obtained near the North Pole under solar minimum conditions were qualitatively and, in many cases also, quantitatively in agreement with the general picture obtained using a global numerical quasi-neutral hybrid model of the solar wind interaction (HYB-Venus). In instances where the orbit of Venus Express crossed a boundary referred to as the magnetic pileup boundary (MPB), field line tracing supports the suggestion that the MPB separates the region that is magnetically connected to the fluctuating magnetosheath field from a region that is magnetically connected to the induced magnetotail lobes.     

The Late Miocene climate response to a modern Sahara desert

The climate cooling and vegetation changes in the Miocene/Pliocene are generally well documented by various proxy data. Some important ecosystem changes occurred at that time. Palaeobotanical evidence suggests that the Sahara desert first appeared in the Pliocene, whereas in the Miocene North Africa was green. In the present study, we investigate the Late Miocene climate response to the appearance of the Sahara desert from a climate modelling sensitivity experiment. We compare a model experiment, which includes a full set of Late Miocene boundary conditions, with another one using the same boundary conditions except that the North African vegetation refers to the present-day situation. Our sensitivity study demonstrates that the introduction of the Sahara desert leads to a cooling and an aridification in Africa. In addition, we observe teleconnection patterns related to the North African desertification at around the Miocene/Pliocene boundary. From our sensitivity experiment, we observe that the Sahara contributes to a cooling in Central Asia and in North America. As compared to hypsodonty data for Central Asia, an increased aridity is underestimated in the Sahara experiment. Finally, we observe that the introduction of the Sahara leads to a cooling in the northern high latitudes. Hence, our sensitivity experiment indicates that the appearance of the Sahara desert is one piece to better understand Late Cenozoic climate cooling being most pronounced in the high latitudes.     

Annual cycle and budgets of nutrients in the Bohai sea

The environmental problems in the Bohai Sea have become more serious in the last decade. High nutrient concentration contributes much to it. A Sino-German cooperation program has been carried out to improve the understanding of the ecosystem by observations and modelling. A three-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with a physical transport model, is adopted in this study. The simulation for the year 1982 is validated by the data collected in 1982/1983. The simulated annual mean nutrient concentrations are in good agreement with observations. The nutrient concentrations in the bohai Sea, which are crucial to the algal growth, are high in winter and low in summer. There are depletion from spring to summer and elevation from autumn to winter for nutrients. The nutrients’ depletion is a response to the consumption of the phytoplankton bloom in spring. Internal recycle and external compensation affect the nutrient cycle. Their contributions to the nutrient budgets are discussed based on the simulated results. Production and respiration are the most important sink and source of nutrients. The process of photosynthesis consumes 152 kilotons-P and 831.1 kilotons-N while respiration releases 94.5 kilotons-P and 516.6 kilotons-N in the same period. The remineralization of the detritus pool is an important source of nutrient regeneration, It can compensate 23 percent of the nutrient consumed by the production process. The inputs of phosphates and nitrogen from rivers are 0.55 and 52.7 kilotons respectively. The net nutrient budget is −3.05 kilotons-P and 31.6 kilotons-N.     

Grampian migmatites in the Buchan Block,NE Scotland

Rocks exposed along the Scottish coast between Fraserburgh and Inzie Head contain information critical to understanding the evolution of the Buchan Block, the type locality for low‐P, high‐T regional metamorphism, and its relationship with the rest of the Grampian terrane, one of the major tectonostratigraphic components of the Scottish Caledonides. The ~8 km long section traverses a regional network of shear zones and, at the highest grades around Inzie Head, passes into the core of the Buchan Anticline, a large‐scale open fold that is commonly regarded as a late structure, post‐dating metamorphism. The metasedimentary rocks increase in grade from upper amphibolite to granulite facies and preserve unequivocal evidence for partial melting. The diatexite migmatites around Inzie Head, along with other gneissose units within the Buchan Block, have been regarded as allochthonous Precambrian basement rocks that were thrust into their current position during the Grampian orogenesis. However, field observations show that the onset of in situ partial melting in metapelitic rocks, which was associated with the formation of garnet‐bearing aplites and associated pegmatites, occurred around Fraserburgh, where shear fabrics are absent. Thus, the rocks preserve a continuous metamorphic field gradient that straddles the shear zone network. This observation supports an alternative interpretation that anatexis was the result of mid‐Ordovician (Grampian) metamorphism, rather than an older tectonothermal event, and that the Inzie Head gneisses are autochthonous. Using an average mid‐Dalradian pelite as a plausible representative protolith, phase equilibria modelling satisfactorily reproduces the observed appearance and disappearance of key minerals providing that peritectic garnet produced with the first formed melts (represented by the garnet‐bearing aplites) depleted the source rocks in Mn. The modelled metamorphic field gradient records a temperature increase of at least 150 °C (from ~650 °C near Fraserburgh to in excess of 800 °C at Inzie Head) but is isobaric at pressures of 2.7–2.8 kbar, suggesting the Buchan Anticline developed synchronous with partial melting. The Buchan Anticline is likely an expression of crustal thinning and asthenospheric upwelling, which produced voluminous gabbroic intrusions that supplied the heat for Buchan metamorphism.     

Validation of a soil water balance model using soil water content and pressure head data

The validation of soil water balance models and the evaluation of the quality of the model predictions at field‐scale require time‐series of in situ measured model outputs. In our study, we have validated such a model using a 6‐year period with time‐series of automatically recorded, daily volumetric soil water contents measured with the time‐domain reflectometry with intelligent microelements (TRIME) method and daily pressure heads measured with tensiometers. The comparisons of simulated with measured soil water contents and pressure heads were analysed using the modelling efficiency index (IA) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) in order to evaluate the prediction quality of the model. In our study, IA and RMSE, obtained either from the comparison of simulated with measured soil water contents or the comparison of calculated with observed pressure heads, in some cases lead to different results regarding the evaluation of the simulation quality of the soil water balance model. For example, a good fit between simulated and observed soil water contents does not necessarily result in a comparably good fit between the corresponding calculated and measured pressure heads. Therefore, a combined use of both measurement techniques, which takes into account their respective advantages and disadvantages, gives a more complete overview on the simulation quality of the soil water balance model than the single use of one of those techniques. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.