地下水降深的未确知风险分析

地下水资源系统具有未确知性特征。在定义水文地质未确知参数的基础上,运用未确知数学理论建立了地下水位下降量预测的未确知数学模型。根据该模型不仅可以得到地下水位下降量的可能取值区间,也能够得到相应区间的主观可信度分布。通过将地下水位下降量超过某一给定限值定义为未确知事件,又建立了度量这一事件发生可能性的未确知可靠性计算模型。实例研究表明,所建模型对地下水降深风险的可靠性分析具有很好的适用性,研究成果有效地弥补了以往确定性模型的不足。     

基于缓解沙漠高速公路风沙危害的路基参数优化——以榆靖高速公路为例

在沙漠地区修筑高速公路时,风沙对公路路基的危害是公路安全和运营的最大影响因子之一。为了寻求最适合沙漠地区高速公路风沙危害最经济的理论路基断面形式,通过对榆（林）靖（边）沙漠高速公路各种路基实测数据应用数学模型进行定量分析,查明了影响路基沙害程度的主要参数,提出了减少路基沙害程度的设计理念,并对不同路基形式的沙害程度进行了比较,给出了路基沙害程度较小的路基断面形式及参数值。研究成果对今后在沙漠地区修筑高速公路设计及施工具有一定的指导意义。     

气候变暖对甘肃干旱气象灾害的影响

应用甘肃80个地面气象站1960-2005年的降水量和气温序列资料,分析了降水量和气温的变化趋势以及降水量和气温的变化对干旱气象灾害的影响.结果表明:甘肃全省年平均气温总体呈明显升高趋势,年降水量总体呈明显减少趋势;甘肃气候变化总体呈暖干趋势.其中,河西呈微弱的暖湿趋势,河东呈显著的暖干旱趋势.3~10月全省年平均降水量与干旱受灾面积和粮食减产量呈显著负相关,全省平均气温与干旱受灾面积和粮食减产量均呈显著正相关.气候暖干化趋势对农业产生的负面影响,是导致干旱受灾面积扩大、粮食减产量增加的主要原因,同时也影响粮食安全.     

The value of the superstring tension and dark matter

We start from our extended scenario for the formation of astronomical objects from fragmenting macroscopic superstrings, and we combine it with our view of an “orderly” fragmentation applied to the formation of black holes (Brosche, Lentes & Tassie 2003), now to the whole objects: the radial order of the matter should be preserved. Then we have to adapt the value of the superstring tension derived from the observed ratios of κ = (angular momentum)/(mass squared). If we calculate potential energies on the basis of a fragmentation until baryonic elementary particles, it turns out that the changed string tension explains as well the mechanical state of observed astronomical objects (without large energy loss on the way from the parent string parts) as also the fraction of bound to unbound matter (about 1:10). The implied superstring tension is about μ = (1/3000) c ²/G . This corresponds to a string tension of 4 × 10⁴⁰ Newton. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

New observations,photometric study and preliminary elements of the W UMa system DF CVn

CCD (V) light curve of the EW‐type eclipsing variable DF CVn was obtained during seven nights in April–May, 2004. With our data we were able to determine 4 new times of minimum light. The light curve appears to exhibit a typical O'Connell effect, with Maximum I brighter than Maximum II by 0.013 mag. in V. TwoWilson‐Devinney (WD) code working sessions, using the V light curve, were done with and without spots. The analysis of the results shows that the best fit was obtained with the spotted solution and indicates contact geometry. The photometric mass ratio of the system is found to be q = 0.347 and its inclination i = 72°, the primary minimum shows a transit. The star may be classified as an A‐type W Uma system. Assuming a reasonable value for the mass of the primary component an estimate of the absolute elements of DF CVn has been made, with the assumption that the primary has a mass corresponding to its spectral type according to Straizys and Kuriliene (1981). (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Assessment of generation temperatures of crude oils

Biological marker maturity parameters were used to estimate the minimum HC generation temperatures of crude oils from Eastern Hungary. More than 50 oils and oil shows were analysed. Molecular- and homologous-ratios of biological marker compounds (triterpanes, steranes, mono- and triaromatic steroid hydrocarbons) were used as maturation parameters. The oils have at least five maturity stages, i.e. they have been generated under different thermal conditions. The highest reservoir temperature in each group was chosen as the best estimate of the groups' temperature just below the generation temperature, i.e. reservoirs of the group might be expected to be at shallower depths (lower temperatures) than those of the generation zone due to vertical migration into pools. For each maturation level, a threshold temperature range for genesis was inferred from reservoir temperatures; they are from 130–135°C for the least mature oils to 210–215°C for the most mature oils. In the least mature oils cracking was not observed, hence carbon–carbon cracking reactions had not taken place during their genesis. The most mature oils are intensively cracked oils; they are almost condensates. Two major genetic groups (families) of oils were found in the area. Both are present in each maturation level. The effects of migration were checked, and no influence on maturation was found. A number of the oils are in overpressured reservoirs within, or just above, the zone of the present-day active oil generation, hence the present-day temperatures of the pools must have been maximum temperatures. Contrary to the traditionally accepted temperature range for petroleum generation–maturation reactions (50–150°C), there is strong evidence from this study that the onset of oil generation requires temperatures higher than 130°C and is still proceeding above 215°C.     

WGMD—1型高密度电阻率测量系统比值参数软件的开发与应用

高密度电阻率法测量中的比值视参数是近几年发展起来的高密度电阻率处理与解释参数,它们具有更好的横向、纵向分辨率以及抑制干扰等作用,介绍了适合于ＷＧＭＤ－１型高密度电阻率法测量系统的幽会参数软件的编制及其在工程勘测中的应用实例,实践证明,这是一组质量高,误差小,方便实用的组合参数,可广泛的用于工程勘测中。     

石家庄城市供水与气象条件

利用多元回归等统计方法逐月分析了气温、湿度、降水及风等气象因子与供水之间的关系 ,并对闷热指数、焚风等与供水量之间的相互关系和规律进行了分析 ,制作了短期供水预报。     

采油生产设备动力特性试验研究

本文通过脉动试验识别了采油生产设备的模态参数。