广义帕累托分布在广东重现期风速计算中的应用

利用广东省86个国家气象观测站建站以来近70a的逐月最大风速序列和近20a(1999—2018年)的逐月最大风速序列,基于POT抽样法,分别采用三参数广义帕累托分布函数对各站的重现期风速进行了概率计算,计算过程中三参数广义帕累托分布函数分别采用矩估计(MOM)、极大似然估计(MLE)、似然矩估计(LM)和概率权矩估计(PWM)等4种参数估计方法,结合表征参数估计优良性的指标:均方根误差RMSE、拟合相对偏差和显著性水平为0.05的科莫戈洛夫检验拟合适度指标K_f对拟合效果进行检验,结果表明:基于POT抽样的概率权矩估计(PWM)拟合效果最好。     

GM(1,1)模型的遗传算法优化及效果检验

对平稳的数据和非平稳数据两种数据序列建立的GM（1，1）模型，分别用加速遗传算法（AGA）和最小二乘法（LSM）对模型参数求解。结果表明：对平稳变化数据序列，两种方法建立的预测模型的拟合优度和预测精度无显著差异；对变化幅度较大的非平稳数据序列，基于AGA的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度高于基于LSM的GM（1，1）模型的拟合优度和预测精度。     

中强震前形变固体潮汐资料短期信息的提取

分析了各种潮汐观测资料处理方法,针对短期异常提取的要求,提出了适合提取短期异常信息的潮汐资料处理方法,对其计算公式进一步推导和展开。应用这些方法对华北地区和西南地区的重力、倾斜、应变等形变观测量进行了计算。对地震前潮汐因子、时间滞后、响应比等潮汐参数的异常信息进行了提取与分析;突出了震源区附近的短期异常信息,并分析总结其变化特征。     

Structural physical parameter identification based on evolutionary-simplex algorithm and structural dynamic response

Evolutionary computation based on the idea of biologic evolution is one type of global optimization algorithm that uses self-adaptation, self-organization and random searching to solve optimization problems. The evolutionary-simplex algorithm is introduced in this paper. It contains floating encoding which combines the evolutionary computation and the simplex algorithm to ovcrcomc the problems encountered in the genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy methods.Numerical cxpcrimcnts arc performed using seven typical functions to verify the algorithm. An inverse analysis method to identify structural physical parameters based on incomplete dynamic responses obtained from the analysis in the time domain is prcscntcd by using the evolutionary-simplex algorithm. The modal evolutionary-simplex algorithm converted from the time domain to the modal domain is proposed to improve the inverse efficiency. Numerical calculations for a 50-DOF system show that whcn compared with other methods, the evolutionary-simplex algorithm offers advantages of high precision,cfficient searching ability, strong ability to resist noise, independence of initial value, and good adaptation to incomplete information conditions.     

软弱夹层粘粒含量与抗剪强度参数的关系分析

分析表明,赋存环境相同、粘土矿物成分以伊利石为主的软弱夹层,在相同稠度状态下粘粒含量与抗剪强度参数具有很好的相关性。通过现场和大量的室内试验成果,建立了各种稠度状态下粘粒含量和抗剪强度参数之间的相关关系式,揭示了在研究粘粒含量对抗剪强度参数影响时,还应当考虑软弱夹层所处的天然状态。结合《温凝土重力坝设计规范》中提出的用粒度成分定量指标选取软弱结构面抗剪强度参数,对软弱夹层抗剪强度参数取值问题进行了探讨。     

视觉测量中相机外参数近似值的快速求解

提出了利用3个不共线的控制点对相机外参数近似值进行快速求解的一种方法.利用3个控制点与其像坐标间的几何关系求得3个控制点在摄站坐标系下的坐标;由控制点的已知控制坐标与求得的摄站坐标系下的坐标,进一步求得两坐标系的转换参数的初值;通过解析法或光束法对相机外参数用初值进行精确标定.并通过一组模拟数据验证了该方法的正确性.     

电子信息系统雷灾风险评估方法

灾害是一种风险,防治灾害就是管理并降低或者消除风险。需要正确认识和评估风险,对于雷电灾害来说就是开展雷电灾害风险评估,进而实施合理的雷电防护。因此,雷击风险评估是防雷设计工作之前的最重要的环节,为了全面、具体实施全方位的雷电防护提供客观、准确、科学的依据,本文针对电子信息系统雷电灾害的特点,在详细分析各种灾害成因的基础上,通过理论计算,提出了对雷电灾害进行风险评估的方法。     

Multiple Parameter Regularization: Numerical Solutions and Applications to the Determination of Geopotential from Precise Satellite Orbits

Kaula’s rule of thumb has been used in producing geopotential models from space geodetic measurements, including the most recent models from satellite gravity missions CHAMP. Although Xu and Rummel (Manuscr Geod 20 8–20, 1994b) suggested an alternative regularization method by introducing a number of regularization parameters, no numerical tests have ever been conducted. We have compared four methods of regularization for the determination of geopotential from precise orbits of COSMIC satellites through simulations, which include Kaula’s rule of thumb, one parameter regularization and its iterative version, and multiple parameter regularization. The simulation results show that the four methods can indeed produce good gravitational models from the precise orbits of centimetre level. The three regularization methods perform much better than Kaula’s rule of thumb by a factor of 6.4 on average beyond spherical harmonic degree 5 and by a factor of 10.2 for the spherical harmonic degrees from 8 to 14 in terms of degree variations of root mean squared errors. The maximum componentwise improvement in the root mean squared error can be up to a factor of 60. The simplest version of regularization by multiplying a positive scalar with a unit matrix is sufficient to better determine the geopotential model. Although multiple parameter regularization is theoretically attractive and can indeed eliminate unnecessary regularization for some of the harmonic coefficients, we found that it only improved its one parameter version marginally in this COSMIC example in terms of the mean squared error.     

视觉测量中相机外参数近似值的快速求解

提出了利用3个不共线的控制点对相机外参数近似值进行快速求解的一种方法。利用3个控制点与其像坐标间的几何关系求得3个控制点在摄站坐标系下的坐标;由控制点的已知控制坐标与求得的摄站坐标系下的坐标,进一步求得两坐标系的转换参数的初值;通过解析法或光束法对相机外参数用初值进行精确标定。并通过一组模拟数据验证了该方法的正确性。     

Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis

Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …