中国地震历史资料的信息开发与利用

本文对全国历史地震资料的有用信息作了进一步的开发和利用，按统一方法处理了大量有感以上地震的文字记载，确字每个独立地震的时间与地点；分区求得地震的有感区长半径与震级的关系式；确定了历史有感地震的最低震级为４；取得了８０００余次有感地震垢基本参数；用等震线测定了巨大地震的参数；将有感强震目录统编成全国与几个大区Ｍ≥４．０地震目录，按《地震学地震预报实用程序系统》（ＥＰＳＥＩＳ）的格式要求建库；同时编制     

多物理参量检验防雹效果的研究

除使用地面冰雹资料（即冰雹动能、质量、降雹强度等）外，还选用了反映雹云变化的雷达回波参量等１０个物理参量，作为作业效果的检验量，检验防雹效果。结果表明：高炮作业后雷达回波顶高、强度及３０ｄｂｚ强回波顶高显著地比作业前小；作业区比未作业区冰雹动能、冰雹质量、冰雹动能通量、质量通量、最大冰雹直径、数密度以及降雹持续时间也有明显减小。     

黑龙江省1986年德都中强地震震源参数

本文应用体波频谱估算地震矩、应力降、震源尺度、破裂传播速度、断层平均位错等震源参数。并讨论现代构造运动、震源机及地震与火山活动关系。     

Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.     

滇东-黔西地区晚二叠世煤岩及煤层气储层物性分析

本文以丰富的地质资料对滇东－黔西地区晚二叠世煤岩分布的割理（裂隙）,吸附、孔隙溶积、镜质组含量、含气性、灰分产率等进行了较为系统的研究,初步建立了煤炭与煤层气储层物性的关系,提出了镜质组含量的煤炭类型有较好的煤层气储集物性条件。     

中国遥感卫星辐射校正场气溶胶光学特性观测研究

1999年6月28日~7月19日在敦煌场, 7月25日~7月31日在青海湖水面场进行了一次大规模综合野外测量试验, 其中采用3台先进的法国CIMEL太阳辐射计对两个场地大气光学特性进行了系统全面测量, 获得大量晴空天气条件下的大气光学数据。利用Langley法处理气溶胶通道数据得到气溶胶光学厚度及其光谱变化。测量结果显示550 nm波长平均气溶胶光学厚度分别为0.12、0.18, 由气溶胶光学厚度的波长变化得到气溶胶Junge参数分别为2.6、3.0, 并与几种典型气溶胶类型比较。结果表明两地在晴空天气里, 气溶胶含量较小, 符合遥感卫星传感器辐射定标的大气条件。     

千岛岛弧大震前哈佛大学矩心矩张量（CMT）解一致性的预测意义s

千岛岛弧地区属于全球地震活动最为活跃的地区之一. 本文利用哈佛大学测定的千岛岛弧地区地震的矩心矩张量（CMT）解， 分析该地区震源机制的一致性特征， 提出利用震源机制和构造应力场的一致性参数a进行地震预测的思路. 研究结果表明，MＷge;7.5地震之前， 都有一致性参数a降低的现象，a的低值起始的时间在发生大震之前的10多天至110多天， a的低值截止的日期距大震在30多天至2天. 相互之间虽然并不完全一致， 但是差别不大. 这种现象的稳定性， 尚需时间的检验， 但是设想在长达数百公里的地区， 连续发生MＷge;5.3的地震的震源机制都与构造应力场一致， 应当不是随机的现象， 而是一种具有预测意义的现象. 当积累的震例足够多时， 则有可能确定统一的评判标准和预测准则.      

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Source mechanism and source parameters of May 28, 1998 earthquake,Egypt

On May 28, 1998, a moderate size earthquake of mb 5.5 occurred offshore the northwestern part of Egypt (latitude 31.45°N and longitude 27.64°E). It was widely felt in the northern part of Egypt. Being the largest well-recorded event in the area for which seismic data from the global digital network are available, it provides an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic process and present day stress field occurring along the offshore Egyptian coast. The source parameters of this event are determined using three different techniques: modeling of surface wave spectral amplitudes, regional waveform inversion, and teleseismic body waveform inversion. The results show a high-angle reverse fault mechanism generally trending NNW–SSE. The P-axis trends ENE–WSW consistently with the prevailed compression stress along the southeastern Hellenic arc and southwestern part of the Cyprean arc. This unexpected mechanism is most probably related to a positive inversion of the NW trending offshore normal faults and confirms an extension of the back thrusting effects towards the African margin. The estimated focal depth ranges from 22 to 25 km, indicating a lower crustal origin earthquake owing to deep-seated tectonics. The source time function indicates a single source with rise time and total rupture duration of 2 and 5 s, respectively. The seismic moment (M _o) and the moment magnitude (M _w) determined by the three techniques are 1.03 × 10¹⁷ Nm, 5.28; 1.24 × 10¹⁷ Nm, 5.33; and 1.68 × 10¹⁷ Nm, 5.42; respectively. The calculated fault radius, stress drop, and the average dislocation assuming a circular fault model are 7.2 km, 0.63 Mpa, and 0.11 m, respectively.