Selection of optimal intensity measures in probabilistic seismic demand models of highway bridge portfolios

Probabilistic seismic demand models are a common and often essential step in generating analytical fragility curves for highway bridges. With these probabilistic models being traditionally conditioned on a single seismic intensity measure (IM), the degree of uncertainty in the models is dependent on the IM used. Selection of an optimal IM for conditioning these demand models is not a trivial matter and has been the focus of numerous studies. Unlike previous studies that consider a single structure for IM selection, this study evaluates optimal IMs for use when generating probabilistic seismic demand models for bridge portfolios such as would be found in HAZUS‐MH. Selection criteria such as efficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and hazard computability are considered in the selection process. A case study is performed considering the multi‐span simply supported steel girder bridge class. Probabilistic seismic demand models are generated considering variability in the geometric configurations and material properties, using two suites of ground motions—one synthetic and one recorded motion suite. Results show that of the 10 IMs considered, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at the fundamental period are the most optimal for the synthetic motions, and that cumulative absolute velocity is also a close contender when using recorded motions. However, when hazard computability is considered, PGA is selected as the IM of choice. Previous studies have shown that spectrally based quantities perform better than PGA for a given structure, but the findings of this study indicate that when a portfolio of bridges is considered, PGA should be used. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊测度在黄土湿陷性评判中的应用

针对黄土湿陷程度划分的复杂性和模糊性,将模糊数学中的测度理论引入到黄土湿陷性等极评判中,建立了湿陷性评判模型。选用天然重度、干重度、含水率、孔隙比和塑性指数5项指标作为评判因子,以湿陷系数为评判指标,通过训练学习样本,可以得到评判指标的点估计值和测度函数,进而可以对待判样本进行分类。通过具体的工程实践应用表明,模糊测度评判模型能较好地对黄土湿陷性进行分级,为黄土湿陷性评判提供了一条新的思路。     

基于二阶预测有效度IOWGA算子的变形组合预测研究

针对一阶预测有效度未能考虑预测精度的方差以及权数不变的问题,提出一种基于二阶预测有效度IOWGA算子的变权组合预测方法。该方法以二阶预测有效度作为目标函数,根据预测精度赋权,然后将其运用于变形数据分析中。实验结果表明,该模型预测精度高,适用于变形预测与分析。     

基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的滑坡危险性评价

危险性评价与预测是滑坡灾害预防与减灾工作首要解决的重要内容。以西藏隆子县研究区内发育的滑坡为例,据其特有的地质环境条件,选取滑坡发育高程、坡度等13项影响因素作为滑坡危险性评价的指标,并建立分级标准将滑坡危险性划分为高度、中度和低度三级。采用组合赋权-未确知测度理论耦合评价模型,构建了评价指标未确知测度函数、评价指标组合赋权值、置信度判别准则,对研究区内20个滑坡进行了危险性评价,获得了每个滑坡危险性等级,并与模糊物元和突变理论评价结果及实测结果对比,评价结果基本符合实际情况,证明该方法科学合理,可为滑坡危险性预测提供新思路。     

复杂地形条件下高面板堆石坝动力反应分析

面板堆石坝具有良好的抗震能力的特性已被数次强震证明,但其动力反应依然是一个值得关心的问题,尤其是在坝高跨入300 m级、河谷地形条件较复杂等情况下。采用等价黏弹性模型,对复杂地形（河谷呈不规则“W”形）条件下高面板堆石坝的动力反应进行分析,得出复杂地形条件下混凝土面板堆石坝（CFRD）坝体、面板的动力反应分布较单一地形条件下复杂,但规律基本相同;最大的动力反应加速度发生在坝体最大断面坝顶位置,最大竖向动位移约为坝高的0.3%;受右岸古河床和左岸陡边坡的影响,右岸的轴向和顺河向动力加速度放大倍数大于左岸,垂直向动力加速度放大倍数反之;古河床位置有一个明显的沉降区域。根据分析结果,复杂地形条件下高面板堆石坝的破坏形式主要有下游坝坡失稳破坏、面板拉裂和震陷超标等。最后提出可采取的抗震措施以供讨论。     

Stormwater pollutant runoff: A stochastic approach

Since stormwater wash-off of pollutants in urban areas is largely affected by environmental variability, it is very difficult to predict the amount of pollutants transported by stormwater runoff during and after individual rainfall events. We investigated the addition of a random component into an exponential wash-off equation of total suspended solids (TSS) and total nitrogen (TN) to model the variability of runoff pollutant concentrations. The model can be analytically solved to describe the probability distributions of TSS and TN concentrations as a function of increasing runoff depths. TSS data from six Australian catchments and TN data from three of these catchments were used to calibrate the model and evaluate its applicability. Using the results of the model, its potential use to determine the appropriate size of stormwater treatment systems is discussed, stressing how probabilistic considerations should be included in the design of such systems. Specifically, stormwater depths retained by a treatment system should result from a compromise between the recurrence of specific runoff depths and the probability to discharge a target pollutant concentration when such a runoff depth is exceeded.     

强震动观测台站防雷措施探讨

雷电危害是影响地震台站稳定运行的重要因素之一,对台站进行雷电防护具有重要意义。分析雷电对地震台站的危害,结合强震动观测台站的建设要求与建设情况,介绍可行的防雷系统,并从台站选址建设、供电系统、接地系统、仪器防雷、通信防雷等方面对台站防雷措施进行探讨。     

青藏高原地表温度的比较分析

利用青藏高原改则、甘孜、拉萨和那曲气象站的地面水银温度计观测的地面0 cm温度和地面向上、大气向下长波辐射观测资料,计算和比较分析了地面水银表温度与地表辐射温度的差异.分析表明,由于地面水银温度计接触式测温方法的局限性,使得气象台站观测场地的地面水银表温度存在较大的误差：在裸露地表,夏季白天的正偏差可达4℃以上,夜间的负偏差在-2℃左右;在稠密植被地表,白天正偏差最高可达16℃以上,夜间的负偏差可达-3℃.由于偏差的不均衡性和离散性,即使对地面水银表温度作简单平均或积分平均处理,其代表性仍然很差.在对地表温度准确性要求较高的定量化研究与应用中,应避免直接采用地面水银表温度资料,即使由于资料缺乏而以其代之,也应对其采取适当的订正补偿等处理措施.随着科学研究对地表温度准确性的更高要求,推广使用地表辐射测温的观测方法是必要的.     

观测数据中系统误差的消除问题

观测数据中的系统误差,有的可用数据处理方法加以消除。为此,要在调查研究产生系统误差的原因、系统误差分布范围及分布特点的基础上,制定一个处理方案,然后是灵活地应用一些新的数据处理方法,才能取得预想的效果。     

长春市地下水开发环境问题研究

根据近期地下水动态监测资料 ,结合地下水赋存的环境水文地质条件 ,分析论述长春市由于不合理开发地下水资源而产生地下水水位下降、水量削减、水质污染、地面沉降等环境地质问题 ,提出了防治对策建议。