基于垂直剖面函数的天顶对流层延迟插值算法

通过分析由ERA-Interim气象再分析资料积分方法得到的天顶对流层总延迟随高程变化的规律,提出一种基于垂直剖面函数的天顶对流层延迟(ZTD)插值算法。该算法以ZTD的垂直分布规律为基础,通过垂直剖面函数实现ZTD在高程方向上的精准投影延拓,可以避免因高差较大造成的空间内插结构畸形。采用IGS站提供的高精度对流层产品进行实验验证表明,该算法相对于传统算法能够有效提高ZTD改正值的精度,尤其在高差超过1 km的情况下,相对于反距离加权法精度提升了96%,相对于空间回归法精度提升了79%。     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A smoothed cap model for variably saturated soils and its robust numerical implementation

This paper deals with the numerical implementation of a cap model for unsaturated soils. It provides a brief review of existing cap model approaches, based on which an improved model formulated in terms of generalised effective stress and matric suction is derived and described in detail. Although the proposed model is a multisurface plasticity model, it can efficiently be implemented using only single‐surface projections because of the smoothness of the model, which is obtained by construction. Numerical algorithms are provided for these single‐surface stress projections, using a single‐equation approach whenever possible. The robustness of the utilised single‐equation approaches is enhanced by proposing problem‐fitted start‐up procedures based on investigations of the nonlinear projection equations. A comparison of the model response with extensive material test data is used to validate the model and to demonstrate the robust application of the approach to silty sands and low to medium plasticity clays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于Google Earth土地承包经营权工作底图的制作

对利用Google Earth影像制作农村土地承包经营权工作底图的方法和技术流程进行了全面探讨。首先在CASS 7.0软件下对集体土地所有权行政界线进行坐标转换,再使用自编程序提取界线拐点的WGS-84大地坐标,通过"地图下载器"下载Google Earth影像并拼接输出TIF影像,利用Arc Map软件的投影变换功能,将墨卡托投影的TIF影像转换为高斯投影影像,最后,在CASS 7.0软件下插入变换后的正射影像,叠加行政界线,形成完整的承包经营权外业调查工作底图。     

移动测量系统宽幅影像的几何拼接与量测

研究了移动测量系统宽幅影像的拼接与量测算法。通过建立三幅影像柱面全景投影的几何关系,能够直接拼接完成宽幅影像。利用宽幅影像和原始影像间反投影变换关系以及三幅原始影像的同、异步立体像对,可建立宽幅影像与物方空间坐标间一一对应关系,从而实现宽幅影像目标的量测算法。宽幅影像的投影拼接和量测实验表明,利用柱面全景投影拼接得到宽幅影像的方法可应用于移动测量平台宽幅影像序列的拼接;在原始影像具备同步立体像对的条件下,宽幅影像量测的绝对精度可达1 m以内,相对精度可达0.2 m以内,满足城市环境实景目标量测的精度需求。     

年最大值抽样估算的暴雨频率设计值的低估问题探讨

由年最大值抽样（AMS）和年超大值抽样（AES）的基本理论及重现期（RP）的定义可知,AMS并不符合以“事件”为基础的重现期的定义.以美国西南半干旱区1438个雨量站和太湖流域96个雨量站的降雨资料为例,通过经验频率与超过概率的比较,发现AMS估算的暴雨频率设计值偏小,尤其是对常遇频率降雨设计值的影响更加显著.美国的降雨量资料站点多、系列长,实际资料验证与理论分析一致.通过对太湖流域AMS资料的分布形态进行分析的结果表明：太湖流域的站点不多,资料长度不够,且大部分站点在雨量大值区数据稀少,使得频率直方图不连续,是造成我国太湖流域的资料验证效果不理想的可能原因.     

IEC的风机选型参数估算方法在中国的适用性研究

国际电工委员会编制的《风力发电机组设计要求》(IEC 61400-1)推荐了针对风电机组安全等级评估的极端风速和湍流强度特征值估算方法,因其简单便捷,在风电领域被广泛采用。利用全国风能资源专业观测网的193座测风塔观测数据,对IEC推荐的极端风速计算方法与我国规范推荐的基于极值I型概率分布方法进行比较,发现两种方法计算的193座塔70 m高度层50年一遇10 min平均最大风速,仅有7座测风塔较为一致,差异在±1%;IEC推荐方法的计算结果多数偏小,其中偏小10%以上的测风塔有121座,偏小30%以上的有44座测风塔,而偏大10%以上的只有9座测风塔;IEC方法计算的极值风速大幅度偏小的测风塔主要分布在台风影响的东南沿海地区,偏差较小的测风塔主要分布在西北和华北地形平缓区域,但同时偏大10%以上的测风塔也多分布在这一地区。以目前行业领域普遍采用的以15 m·s~(-1)风速的平均湍流强度作为风电机组选型指标,与严格按照规范,以15 m·s~(-1)风速段所有样本湍流强度的90%分位数处的值作为指标进行风电机组等级确定作对比,发现193座塔中有46座塔的选型是不安全的,甚至相差两个等级。