全文获取类型
收费全文 | 3550篇 |
免费 | 482篇 |
国内免费 | 499篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 954篇 |
大气科学 | 551篇 |
地球物理 | 877篇 |
地质学 | 977篇 |
海洋学 | 456篇 |
天文学 | 37篇 |
综合类 | 296篇 |
自然地理 | 383篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 14篇 |
2023年 | 30篇 |
2022年 | 77篇 |
2021年 | 97篇 |
2020年 | 122篇 |
2019年 | 175篇 |
2018年 | 135篇 |
2017年 | 167篇 |
2016年 | 190篇 |
2015年 | 176篇 |
2014年 | 206篇 |
2013年 | 266篇 |
2012年 | 192篇 |
2011年 | 227篇 |
2010年 | 172篇 |
2009年 | 204篇 |
2008年 | 212篇 |
2007年 | 199篇 |
2006年 | 188篇 |
2005年 | 167篇 |
2004年 | 168篇 |
2003年 | 144篇 |
2002年 | 99篇 |
2001年 | 90篇 |
2000年 | 94篇 |
1999年 | 93篇 |
1998年 | 96篇 |
1997年 | 71篇 |
1996年 | 70篇 |
1995年 | 63篇 |
1994年 | 56篇 |
1993年 | 57篇 |
1992年 | 29篇 |
1991年 | 28篇 |
1990年 | 29篇 |
1989年 | 22篇 |
1988年 | 17篇 |
1987年 | 19篇 |
1986年 | 17篇 |
1985年 | 11篇 |
1984年 | 9篇 |
1983年 | 2篇 |
1982年 | 11篇 |
1981年 | 6篇 |
1980年 | 7篇 |
1979年 | 2篇 |
1978年 | 1篇 |
1976年 | 2篇 |
1973年 | 1篇 |
1954年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有4531条查询结果,搜索用时 78 毫秒
81.
D. J. Dupuis 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):295-306
In Smith (1986, J. Hydrol. 86, 27–43), a family of statistical distributions and estimators for extreme values based on a fixed number r > = 1 of the largest annual events are presented. The method of estimation was numerical maximum likelihood. In this paper, we consider the robust estimation of parameters in such families of distributions. The estimation technique, which is based on optimal B-robust estimates, will assign weights to each observation and give estimates of the parameters based on the data which are well modeled by the distribution. Thus, observations which are not consistent with the proposed distribution can be identified and the validity of the model can be assessed. The method is illustrated on Venice sea level data. 相似文献
82.
A bivariate meta-Gaussian density for use in hydrology 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
K. S. Kelly R. Krzysztofowicz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):17-31
Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either
constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian
density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent
a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation
can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure.
Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities
in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model. 相似文献
83.
K. -C. Yeh J. -C. Yang Y. -K. Tung 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(2):173-192
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献
84.
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献
85.
国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践 总被引:8,自引:3,他引:8
对20世纪80年代以来PMP/PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP/PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点,以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。 相似文献
86.
建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考 总被引:7,自引:3,他引:7
金德山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):101-103
结合工作实践,就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则,评估区环境条件分析深度的把握,现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点,土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准,提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。 相似文献
87.
A. Douaik M. van Meirvenne T. Tóth M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227
The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (ECa) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to ECa, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas. 相似文献
88.
A processing strategy and the corresponding software architecture for the processing of GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) observables is presented and described, with the major objective to compute a high-accuracy, high-resolution spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravity field. The combination of two numerical solution strategies, i.e. the rigorous solution of the corresponding large normal equation systems applying parallel processing (on a PC cluster) as the core solver, and the fast semianalytic approach as a quick-look gravity field analysis (QL-GFA) tool, is proposed. Such a method fusion benefits from the advantages of the individual components: the rigorous inversion of the system providing also the full variance-covariance information, and the quickness enabling the consecutive production of intermediate gravity field solutions, for the purpose to analyse partial and incomplete data sets and to derive a diagnosis of the performance of the GOCE measurement system. The functionality and operability of the individual components are demonstrated in the framework of a closed loop simulation, which is based on a realistic mission scenario both in terms of the orbit configuration and the coloured measuring noise. Special concern is given to the accuracy of the recovered coefficients, the numerical behaviour, the required computing time, and the particular role of the individual modules within the processing chain. In the case of the core solver, it is demonstrated that the assembling and rigorous solution of large normal equation systems can be handled by using Beowulf clusters within a reasonable computing time. The application of the quick-look tool to partial data sets with short-term data gaps is demonstrated on the basis of several case studies. Additionally, the spectral analysis of the residuals of the adjustment is presented as a valuable tool for the verification of the noise characteristics of the GOCE gradiometer. 相似文献
89.
This article has two purposes. Firstly, a validation exercise of the modal summation technique for the computation of synthetic
strong-motion records is performed for two regions of Europe (Umbria-Marche and south Iceland), using a variety of region
specific crustal structure models, by comparing the predicted ground motion amplitudes with observed motions. It is found
that the rate of decay of ground motions is well predicted by the theoretical decay curves but that the absolute size of the
ground motions is underpredicted by the synthetic time-histories. This is thought to be due to the presence of low-velocity
surface layers that amplify the ground motions but are not included in the crustal structure models used to compute the synthetic
time-histories.
Secondly, a new distance metric based on the computed theoretical decay curves is introduced which should have the ability
to model the complex decay of strong ground motions. The ability of this new distance metric to reduce the associated scatter
in empirically derived equations for the estimation of strong ground motions is tested. It is found that it does not lead
to a reduction in the scatter but this is thought to be due to the use of crustal structure models that are not accurate or
detailed enough for the regions studied.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
90.
IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio… 相似文献