同位素信息确定Philip入渗模型稳定入渗率

通过流域水循环中各要素同位素含量的测定,扩大建模信息利用量,增加确定模型参数所需信息,提高参数可识别性,可在一定程度上减少参数的不确定性.以仅有两个参数且物理意义明确的Philip入渗模型为例,利用同位素信息确定Philip入渗模型参数稳定入渗率,并通过室内降雨入渗实验来检验同位素信息确定模型参数结果.结果表明,利用同位素信息确定的Philip入渗模型稳定入渗率与实测值接近.氢氧稳定同位素的分析精度对利用同位素信息确定模型参数结果有一定影响.     

民勤绿洲生态重建目标下土地利用和农业结构调整的政策选择

水资源过度利用引起的土地退化日益威胁着绿洲地区的经济社会可持续发展.为恢复绿洲生态环境,压缩农业用水势在必行.然而压缩用水后如何保障农民收入成为实现可持续发展的关键问题之一.应用Bio-economic模型,定量模拟了压缩农业用水后农户对土地利用和农业结构调整、推广节水技术、增加非农就业机会等政策措施的行为响应.结果显示,压缩农业用水后农民收入将下降到压缩前的53%;调整农业结构、推广闸管灌等节水灌溉技术和增加非农就业机会,可以在不同程度上缓解压缩农业用水造成的农民收入损失.不同区域农户响应行为有所差异,应因地制宜地采取配套措施.劳动力相对紧张、人均收入较高的泉山区,可提供一次性补贴鼓励闸管灌的采用;人多地少、集约化程度较高的坝区,应在加强推广闸管灌技术的同时,增加非农就业机会;生态脆弱的湖区,政策重点应放在劳动力转移上.上述措施最终只能使农民收入恢复到压缩用水前的75%,因此应该考虑给农民提供生态补偿,并积极探索增加农民收入的新途径.     

Relationships between Tourist Experiential Value and Ice-Snow Tourism Loyalty in Zhangjiakou City,and the Moderating Effects of Travel Companions

The successful bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics has provided a new opportunity for the popularization of ice-snow sports and making improvements in the efficiency of ice-snow tourism in China. Taking Zhangjiakou City in Hebei Province as the research object and using questionnaire analysis and the structural equation model (SEM), this paper examined several hypotheses of the relationship between tourist experiential value and tourist loyalty in the context of ice-snow tourism, and a mediation analysis was conducted to explore the moderating role of travel companions. The results show that: (1) The functional value, emotional value and social value have significant positive effects on tourist loyalty; (2) Tourist satisfaction is a partial mediator between functional value, emotional value, social value and tourist loyalty, and a full mediator between cognitive value and tourist loyalty; and (3) Travel companions play a significant moderating role in the influence of emotional value on tourist loyalty. Based on these findings, several suggestions are put forward for the high-quality development of ice-snow tourism in China, including developing ice-snow family tourism products, building an ice-snow brand with winter Olympics characteristics, constructing the ice-snow industrial system, and cultivating ice-snow culture.     

城市景观对住宅价格的影响——以杭州市为例

优美的城市景观是人们日常生活休闲、娱乐的场所, 给人们带来心理上的愉悦和舒适感, 对城市的品质内涵也有重要影响。由于大多数景观效益是隐性的, 其舒适性价值难以用货币价格直接测量, 国内外学者广泛采用特征价格法进行实证研究。本文以杭州市为例, 从建筑、邻里、区位、景观四个维度选择25个解释变量构建特征价格模型, 定量评估了城市内部各类景观对住宅价格的影响。实证结果表明:住宅价格与到西湖和公园的距离呈负相关关系, 而与公园的面积呈正相关关系:其中, 到西湖和最近公园的距离每增加1%,住宅价格将分别下降0.240%和0.036%;公园的面积每增大1%,附近的住宅价格则提高0.012%;广场、山景、钱塘江等景观也对周边一定范围内房价具有显着的提升作用。     

Input data selection for solar radiation estimation

Model input data selection is a complicated process, especially for non‐linear dynamic systems. The questions on which inputs should be used and how long the training data should be for model development have been hard to solve in practice. Despite the importance of this subject, there have been insufficient reports in the published literature about inter‐comparison between different model input data selection techniques. In this study, several methods (i.e. the Gamma test, entropy theory, AIC (Akaike's information criterion)/BIC (Bayesian information criterion) have been explored with the aid of non‐linear models of LLR (local linear regression) and ANN (artificial neural networks). The methodology is tested in estimation of solar radiation in the Brue Catchment of England. It has been found that the conventional model selection tools such as AIC/BIC failed to demonstrate their functionality. Although the entropy theory is quite powerful and efficient to compute, it failed to pick up the best input combinations. On the other hand, it is very encouraging to find that the new Gamma test was able to choose the best input selection. However, it is surprising to note that the Gamma test significantly underestimated the required training data while the entropy theory did a better job in this aspect. This is the first study to compare the performance of those techniques for model input selections and still there are many unsolved puzzles. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

五河—凤阳地区金多金属矿成矿模式探讨

五河-凤阳地区具有较好的成矿地质条件,目前已知该地区有多种金铅锌多金属矿床类型,但对于该地区的成矿模式的探讨,迄今为止没有一个统一的成矿模式可以较好地解释该地区已知的多种不同类型的成矿模型。本文依托安徽省基金项目,对该地区的成矿模式进行了探讨。     

双锚固段新型锚索锚固性能研究及工程应用

为探究高路堤、深路堑边坡锚固系统耐久性以及锚固效果,研制了一种内外双锚固段新型锚索,从其结构设计、结构特点及锚固机理入手,分析其受力模式与计算方法,并通过室内足尺模型试验分析双锚固段新型锚索锚固效果,试验结果表明,（1）外锚固段有效的起到了双重锚固作用;（2）双锚固段锚索系统能有效避免因锚索失效导致的预应力损失;（3）整个锚固系统能实现反向自锁功能,与传统的锚索比,安全可靠性更高,能有效避免因锚索破坏突发灾难性的安全事故,长期性价比高;（4）工程实例验证石炭系岩关组砂岩、泥岩及深灰色灰岩呈互层地层外固段长度不少于8 m,才能有效地避免外锚头失效自由段预应力不损失。试验结果对正确分析双锚固段新型锚索加固作用机制和工程设计应用具有一定的参考价值。     

斑岩铜矿成矿构造背景研究进展

斑岩铜矿是指与具斑状结构的中酸性侵入岩伴生,蚀变与矿化受流体、构造控制且分带明显,矿石以细脉浸染状为主,低品位、大储量的铜矿床,是最重要的铜矿床类型。大地构造背景对斑岩铜矿的形成具有重要意义,经典的斑岩铜矿主要产于岛弧、陆缘弧环境。然而,近年来国内矿床学家发现,国内形成于大陆环境的斑岩铜矿与大洋板块俯冲、板块消减作用无关,斑岩铜矿还可产于碰撞造山带,甚至是在陆内环境。相比之下,不同构造背景下形成的斑岩铜矿床含矿岩浆、成矿物质来源、矿床成因等方面存在一定差异与共性。综述了目前斑岩铜矿研究内容中的关于构造背景的一些重要观点和几个重要进展,对比了不同构造背景下形成的斑岩铜矿床的含矿岩浆、蚀变矿化、成矿流体等方面的共性与差异,以期对斑岩型矿床的成因与找矿提供一定的线索。     

地震作用下堆积体边坡的坡面变形与失稳机制

地震作用下堆积体边坡的动力响应特性十分复杂,单一抗震安全系数不足以评价其动力稳定性。通过大型振动台试验,研究了连续多级地震荷载作用下,地震波的类型、卓越频率及峰值加速度对堆积体边坡坡面永久位移的影响,并初步分析其失稳机制。试验结果表明,相同峰值加速度下振动型地震波比冲击型地震波更容易产生坡面永久位移,地震波卓越频率对坡面永久位移也有重要影响;堆积体边坡在峰值加速度apeak=0.2g时开始有大颗粒石砾滚落,对应的坡面永久位移在apeak=0.2g～0.3g之间开始产生并显著增大,另外利用考虑坡面几何形态变化的改进Newmark法对坡顶的永久位移进行了估算。通过坡面永久位移评价堆积体边坡的动力稳定性有一定合理性。     

Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.