Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

新疆罗布泊超大型卤水钾矿发现20年

"罗布泊超大型卤水鉀矿"的发现,是中国众多地学科学家40年探寻预测的。王弭力研究员及其团队,于1995年秋首次踏进罗布泊"罗北凹地",当年找到4356万t优质卤水鉀矿;经五年科研和勘探,查明儲量达2.5亿t、为超大型卤水鉀矿。理论创新,成为完成科硏和勘探的关键,加速了百万吨级"罗钾公司"硫酸钾肥生产成功投产。古丝绸之路上生命回归、一颗新星"罗布泊"镇诞生,"百年罗钾"资源保障科研探钾即将启动,中国几代"钾盐人"的梦想成真。     

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.     

Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions

Coalbed methane (CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin (SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure (RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.     

新型同径分层止水工艺在地热探采深井的应用

原平大营地热探采结合深井完钻井深3088 m,为探明494~3088 m变质岩地层的水文地质参数和水源补给情况,基于岩心和测井资料划分4个抽水试验段,且试验后需要恢复目的含水层。根据“一孔同径分层止水”原则,设计了管内止水托盘止水、管外止水伞止水的新型同径分层止水工艺。该工艺简化了井身结构,避免了管外投粘土球、注水泥等堵塞含水层的情况。现场实施表明,该工艺止水效果完全满足水文地质抽水试验要求,可为同类工程提供经验和借鉴。     

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.     

The role of two sediment-dwelling invertebrates on the mercury transfer from sediments to the estuarine trophic web

The annual total and organic mercury bioaccumulation pattern of Scrobicularia plana and Hediste diversicolor was assessed to evaluate the potential mercury transfer from contaminated sediments to estuarine food webs. S. plana was found to accumulate more total and organic mercury than H. diversicolor, up to 0.79 mg kg⁻¹ and 0.15 mg kg⁻¹ (wet weight) respectively, with a maximum annual uptake of 0.21 mg kg⁻¹ y⁻¹, while for methylmercury the annual accumulation was similar between species and never exceeded 0.045 mg kg⁻¹ y⁻¹. The higher organic mercury fraction in H. diversicolor is related to the omnivorous diet of this species. Both species increase methylmercury exposure by burrowing activities and uptake in anoxic, methylmercury rich sediment layers. Integration with the annual biological production of each species revealed mercury incorporation rates that reached 28 μg m⁻² y⁻¹, and to extract as much as 11.5 g Hg y⁻¹ (of which 95% associated with S. plana) in the 0.4 km² of the most contaminated area, that can be transferred to higher trophic levels. S. plana is therefore an essential vector in the mercury biomagnification processes, through uptake from contaminated sediments and, by predation, to transfer it to economically important and exploited estuarine species.     

Photochemical production of molecular hydrogen in lake water and coastal seawater

Samples of lake water and coastal seawater from Nova Scotia, Canada, were irradiated with natural or artificial sunlight to investigate the potential for photochemical hydrogen production. Hydrogen photo-production was observed in all natural water samples. Rates of hydrogen formation were highest in coloured lake water (range: 98–163 pmol L^− 1h^− 1) and lower in seawater (range: 19–45 pmol L^− 1 h ^− 1). Dilutions of the most highly coloured lake sample (Kejimkujik Lake) showed a positive linear relationship between H₂ production rates and CDOM concentration. Photo-production rates normalised to UV absorption coefficients at 350 nm indicated that the photochemical efficiency of hydrogen formation varied between samples, perhaps due to differences in the CDOM composition. Photochemical hydrogen formation was also seen in solutions of syringic acid and acetaldehyde: two low-molecular-weight carbonyl compounds found in natural waters. Photochemistry may therefore offer least a partial explanation for the persistently high levels of hydrogen observed in the low-latitude surface ocean.     

Nutrient flux into an intense deep chlorophyll layer in a mode-water eddy

An intense deep chlorophyll layer in the Sargasso Sea was reported near the center of an anticyclonic mode-water eddy by McGillicuddy et al. [2007. Eddy–wind interactions stimulate extraordinary mid-ocean plankton blooms, Science, accepted]. The high chlorophyll was associated with anomalously high concentrations of diatoms and with a maximum in the vertical profile of ¹⁴C primary productivity. Here we report tracer measurements of the vertical advection and turbulent diffusion of deep-water nutrients into this chlorophyll layer. Tracer released in the chlorophyll layer revealed upward motion relative to isopycnal surfaces of about 0.4 m/d, due to solar heating and mixing. The density surfaces themselves shoaled by about 0.1 m/d. The upward flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, averaged over 36 days, was approximately 0.6 mmol/m²/d due to both upwelling and mixing. This flux is about 40% of the basin wide, annually averaged, nitrogen flux required to drive the annual new production in the Sargasso Sea, estimated from the oxygen cycle in the euphotic zone, the oxygen demand below the euphotic zone, and from the ³He excess in the mixed layer. The observed upwelling of the fluid was consistent with theoretical models [Dewar, W.K., Flierl, G.R., 1987. Some effects of wind on rings. Journal of Physical Oceanography 17, 1653–1667; Martin, A.P., Richards, K.J., 2001. Mechanisms for vertical nutrient transport within a North Atlantic mesoscale eddy. Deep-Sea Research II 48, 757–773] in which eddy surface currents cause spatial variations in surface stress. The diapycnal diffusivity at the base of the euphotic zone was 3.5±0.5×10⁻⁵ m²/s. Diapycnal mixing was probably enhanced over more typical values by the series of storms passing over the eddy during the experiment and may have been enhanced further by the trapping of near-inertial waves generated within the eddy.