A STUDY OF NEAR SURFACE WIND PROFILES IN THE HEBEI COASTAL AREA BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL EXPERIMENTS

In order to provide wind profiles for the microscale numerical simulation of wind farm with complex terrain,using the 100 m tower atmospheric turbulence observation experiment data in 2010 in Hebei Province offered by National Climate Center, the variation characteristics of wind profile under the different atmospheric stability conditions are analyzed, and the wind profile expression based on the local similarity theory is established. The results show that:(1) In spring, the occurrence probability of unstable stratification in the Hebei coastal area is as high as 28%, and the probability of stable stratification is more than 43% while, in summer, the probability of occurrence of unstable stratification is as high as 80% with a lower probability for stable stratification; and(2) for stable stratification, the characteristics of atmosphere change is dramatic in terms of the vertical direction, which need to be treated layer by layer.According to the atmospheric turbulence observation experiment data above, under stable stratification, the relationship between the dimensionless velocity gradient and the stability ζ can be expressed as 1 +βmζ, with βm changing with the height: βm takes 4.1-4.3 under 30 m, βm takes 4.6-4.7 between 30-50 m, and βm takes 6.3-6.7 over 50 m.     

一次梅雨锋暴雨发生发展机制的诊断与模拟

采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、FY2E卫星资料和加密自动站资料,结合中尺度WRF模式对2013年苏皖地区的一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行诊断与模拟。观测资料分析表明:在有利的环流背景和热动力条件下,此次暴雨发生在梅雨锋前暖区,雨带呈现"先带状后串波状"的分布特征,并随锋面南移。前期降水由地面中尺度辐合线触发,受两个相继发展的中α尺度的线状对流系统直接影响;后期降水受地面暖式切变线触发,有多个中β尺度对流系统沿切变线串状排列,并不断东移发展。模拟结果分析表明:降水过程中,大尺度非地转强迫作用也是强对流的触发机制之一。地面辐合线产生条带状的低层辐合区,从而产生条带状连续分布的上升运动,形成线状对流系统及带状降水。此外地面辐合线能够在暴雨区形成南北两个中尺度垂直次级环流,这是降水的增强机制。暖式切变线上的局部扰动在低层局部地区产生强辐合,由此沿切变线形成强上升弱下沉间隔分布的现象,局部强上升区使得对流系统于该处得到发展,并形成分散的强降水区。     

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model, we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics. Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments: the random perturbation(RP), the bred vector(BV), the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF), and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) methods. Results show that,regardless of the method used, the ensemble ave...     

基于多源探测资料的一次广州局地强对流垂直结构分析

基于X波段相控阵雷达、S波段双偏振雷达、微波辐射计、风廓线雷达、毫米波云雷达等多源高时空分辨率新型遥感探测资料,对广州后汛期一次局地强对流过程的大气热力、动力及云物理结构变化特征进行了综合分析。结果表明：(1)强对流前8小时前,局地LI、CAPE、SI等对流参数就达到并远远超过了短时强降水的阈值;临近降水大气层结仍向不稳定发展,水汽条件向有利的方向发展;(2)午后局地风形成辐合,上升气流加强,近地层出现弱垂直风切变和低空急流脉动,对强对流的发生发展有一定的指示意义;(3) CINRAD/SA-D雷达CR、DBZM HT、TOPS、VIL等变化与强降水和地面大风的发展有很好的对应关系,同时低层风场观测到阵风锋特征;XPAR-D雷达更高时空分辨率的探测可清晰显示对流发展旺盛阶段的Z_DR弧、K_DP柱、Z_DR柱、V型缺口等特征,为判断雷暴云团的发展程度和预警提供重要信息。     

K–Ar ages of granitoids unravel the stages of Neo-Tethyan convergence in the eastern Pontides and central Anatolia,Turkey

K–Ar dating of mineral separates extracted from various granitoid rock units of the eastern Pontides and central Anatolia, Turkey, has provided some new insights unravelling various stages of the Neo-Tethyan convergence system, which evolved with northward subduction between the Eurasian plate (EP) to the north and the Tauride-Anatolide platform (TAP) to the south along the İzmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture (IAES) zone. Arc-related granitoid rocks are only encountered in the eastern Pontides and yield K–Ar cooling ages of both Early Cretaceous (138.5 ± 2.2 Ma) (early arc), and Late Cretaceous, ranging from 75.7 ± 0.0 to 66.5 ± 1.5 Ma (mature arc), respectively. The multi-sourced granitoids of the eastern Pontides, with a predominant mantle component and K–Ar ages between 40 and 50 Ma, are considered to be a part of post-collisional slab break-off magmatism accompanied by tectonic denudation of pre-Late Cretaceous granitoid rocks following juxtaposition of the EP and the TAP around 55–50 Ma in the eastern Pontides. The K–Ar cooling ages of collision-related S-, I- and A-type granitoids in central Anatolia reflect good synchronism between 80 and 65 Ma, suggesting a coeval genesis in a unique geodynamic setting but with derivation from various sources—namely, purely crustal, purely mantle and/or of mixed origin. This sort of simultaneous generation model for these S-I-A-type intrusives seems to be consistent with a post-collisional lithospheric detachment related geodynamic setting. I-type granodioritic to tonalitic intrusives with K–Ar cooling ages ranging from 40 to 48 Ma in east-central Anatolia are interpreted to have been derived from a post-collisional, within-plate, extension-related geodynamic setting following the amalgamation of the EP and the TAP in east-central Anatolia.     

地球化学的空间自相关异常信息提取方法

针对地球化学数据存在的空间分布相关性特征,该文提出了一种基于空间自相关统计的地球化学异常提取方法。以内蒙古浩布高矿床外围的土壤地球化学数据为例,通过对Sn、Cu元素地球化学数据在不同空间间隔上的全局自相关计算,测算其空间聚集的程度,选取聚集程度最高时的间隔距离作为局部空间自相关的参数,通过局部Moran’s I值研究元素的空间分布特征,分析空间聚类和异常值,从而提取地球化学异常。结果表明,局部空间自相关分析可以揭示Sn、Cu地球化学数据的空间分布特征,能够更好地提取地球化学弱缓异常,说明空间自相关是一种有效的地球化学异常识别方法。     

巴丹吉林沙漠北缘拐子湖近地层湍流能谱特征分析

利用2013年6月巴丹吉林沙漠拐子湖地区流沙下垫面的陆气通量观测资料,计算并分析了该研究区不同大气稳定层结条件下的湍流速度各分量谱和温度谱及湍流的局地各向同性特征。结果表明:该研究区风速各分量的湍流强度随平均风速的增加而逐渐减小,当平均风速2 m/s时,风速各分量的湍流强度逐渐稳定且基本限定在0.5以内。在不同大气稳定度下,湍流速度和温度能谱曲线在惯性副区内逐渐有合并趋势且遵循Kolmogorov提出的-2/3定律,速度各分量谱在高频段均满足各向同性且符合低频限制理论。随着稳定度的增加,风速分量的能谱曲线逐渐降低且向高频端移动,风速分量和温度能谱对应的谱峰长度则逐渐减小。该研究区水平湍流尺度范围为9.0~600 m,垂直湍流谱峰波长为10.79~75 m。该结果介于草地和森林下垫面之间,与塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地的试验结果较为接近。     

神农架林区西南坡局地暴雨过程诊断分析

神农架林区西南坡为局地暴雨灾害多发区。利用常规资料、多普勒雷达资料和区域自动站资料,分析了导致神农架林区西南坡2014年8月6日至7日夜间连续两场短时暴雨过程中MCS发生发展的天气背景及结构特征,并探讨了神农架山区复杂地形构造对西南坡暴雨的增幅作用。结果表明:1)中高层天气系统强迫弱时,副高边缘地面暖低压倒槽及850 h Pa气旋性弯曲区与辐合的发生发展可能是造成这类局地强降水天气的触发系统,地面弱冷空气的入侵有利于降水的维持和加强。2)两次局地暴雨过程均是由中β尺度对流系统影响产生的,降水历时短、强度大,雨区移动呈现局地性,具有明显的中尺度强对流系统特征,分别属前导层状云与尾随层状云中尺度对流系统型。3)第一场暴雨过程以对流降水为主,回波较强;第二场暴雨过程回波质心低且层状云特征比较突出,但维持时间相对较长,降水效率更高。4)神农架西南坡坡度大,海拔高度高,地形的动力抬升和辐合作用促使上升运动加强,地形强迫抬升作用显著不仅对局地对流触发、降水增幅有重要作用,而且会影响中尺度对流系统结构,这可能是神农架林区西南坡暴雨高发的重要原因。     

Local Governance for Social Sustainability: equity as a strategic response to neoliberal constraints in food security initiatives

Scholarly literature recognises the importance of social sustainability as part of the wider sustainability agenda. A wide array of concepts such as equity, social justice, democratic government, social inclusion, social capital and quality of life are thought to constitute social sustainability. Local governments are charged with delivering social programs and services to their constituency, but market logics and performance-based institutional cultures, along with limited authority and funding, constrain their capacity to respond to new initiatives. We analyse two case studies in Victoria, Australia, to explore how elements of social sustainability are articulated and operationalised within local government. Each case study involved State-level and local government partnerships in health-promotion initiatives to improve food security. Analysis was conducted on 50 primary policy documents, 22 secondary data documents and 27 interviews. Findings reveal that a systems-based or integrated approach to social sustainability was not workable but not completely ineffective. Equity was prioritised by local government in both case studies, and well acknowledged as interconnected with other social goals. Although constrained in its capacity to deliver new initiatives, local government responded to neoliberalising ideologies, as well as its constituency, by strategically focusing on a particular goal, such as equity.     

Actor-Based Design of a Management System for the Elephant Marsh Fishery in Malawi

In Malawi, fishing community user groups known as beach village committees, traditional chiefs, government officers, and fishers are the key players in fisheries management. Fish catch trends at the Elephant Marsh Fishery in southern Malawi are declining. Based on interviews and participant observation, this article uses an actor-based framework (known as Action-in-Context) to unveil the issues that are crucial in devising a sustainable governance system for the fishery. We establish and propose that the key social variables for the design of a three-pillared (locally based, weak, and amorphous) resilient institution for sustainability of the Elephant Marsh Fishery are (i) the social reputation of the leaders of local fishery institutions (beach village committee leaders), and (ii) the power dynamics between traditional chiefs and these local fishery leaders. We end the article by exploring the implications of the findings on the sustainability of the fishery under rising resource pressure.