长江中游城陵矶河段2016-2020年汛期水位非正常波动:影响因子及滤波修正

长江经济带的人口和经济总量均超过全国的40％,长江中游城市群受地理位置与水文条件的综合影响更易遭受洪涝灾害的威胁.莲花塘水位站作为长江中游城陵矶河段蓄滞洪区启用指标控制站,当三峡水库水位达155.0 m后,如莲花塘站水位达到34.40 m并继续上涨,则城陵矶附近区蓄滞洪区需采取分洪措施.然而受河流形态和江湖关系(长江与...     

西藏色齐拉山地区立体气候特征初步分析

利用西藏色齐拉山地区不同海拔高度的8个自动站和3个实测气象站1年的近地面观测资料,分析了该地区气温、地温、降水量、湿度和风速等气象要素的季节变化特征,探讨了东、西坡局地气候特征差异形成的原因。结果表明：色齐拉山地区1月为最冷月、7月为最暖月;月平均最高气温、最低气温与平均气温的季节变化一致。气温日较差大年较差小。年平均气温直减率东、西坡分别为0．54℃／100m和0．73℃／100m,西坡大于东坡。地气温差冬季西坡大于东坡,夏季东坡大于西坡。年、月平均地温直减率西坡仍大于东坡;东坡除夏季7、8月份外,地温直减率小于气温直减率;西坡除冬季（12月和1月）,地温直减率大于气温直减率。降水量东坡比西坡多,海拔2500m以上地区4～10月降水总量随着海拔高度的升高呈增加趋势,增加率为20．9mm／100m。空气相对湿度冬季低夏季高,年变化呈单峰型。东、西坡冬季风速较强夏季相对较弱,初春风速最大。东、西坡气候差异与海拔高度、坡向、下垫面性质有关。     

华南暖区暴雨研究进展

华南前汛期暴雨预报一直是我国大气科学界的一个研究热点,特别是发生在锋前的暖区暴雨,由于其天气尺度斜压性强迫不明显,环境大气水汽含量丰富,热动力不稳定性强,边界层触发机制复杂,以及特殊的地形和海陆热力差异的外强迫作用,导致暴雨突发性强,地域性特征显著,也是困扰预报业务人员的难点问题。目前我国预报业务中使用的全球数值预报模式对暖区暴雨的预报能力十分有限,高分辨率中尺度数值模式的预报效果也不尽人意。该文回顾了近40年华南前汛期暴雨大部分研究成果,针对华南暖区暴雨的提出及典型背景场、暖区暴雨与低空急流的关系、暖区中尺度对流系统的形成及传播、暖区暴雨触发机制等独特的天气动力学特征进行了系统梳理与分析,并依据前人研究成果及中央气象台预报实践经验,总结提炼了3类华南暖区暴雨类型——边界层辐合线型、偏南风风速辐合型,以及强西南急流型的天气系统配置及触发因子。最后提出针对华南暖区暴雨需要进一步研究的科学问题。     

多重网格法在MM5自适应模式中的应用

将多重网格法应用于MM5中来加速自适应网格的生成,并用这种方法来模拟2002年6月17-18日发生在江南和华南的暴雨过程。试验表明：在收敛精度要求高的情况下自适应模式模拟结果的精度高于均匀网格模式,且多重网格法有助于提高运算效率。     

高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征,地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退,东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持,低层冷平流下传西输,地面辐合维持增强为涡旋,地面东路弱冷空气侵入,能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应,低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置,中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。     

Spatial crime distribution and prediction for sporting events using social media

ABSTRACT

Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement.     

The many faces of local community: Exploring lay conceptualizations of the Norwegian lokalsamfunn

ABSTRACT

Despite much attention paid to the topic of community in academic literature and policy documents, there is a relative lack of knowledge about what laypersons perceive as a local community. Based on data from a national survey, the authors examine how c.1400 Norwegians conceptualized local community – lokalsamfunn in Norwegian. They reveal some of the linguistic and conceptual aspects of local community as a term, in addition to tendencies and patterns among the survey responses. The respondents’ conceptualizations contained references to lokalsamfunn variously as a geographical area, people and relations, activities and involvement, attachment to place and people, and provider of local goods and services. Their main emphasis was on lokalsamfunn as a spatial unit. However, the responses contained relatively few references to the relational aspects of lokalsamfunn. The authors conclude that a common, lay understanding may be that lokalsamfunn is a vaguely defined but limited geographical unit filled with people who to varying degrees know each other and interact. Concerning policymaking aimed at fostering communal well-being, the authors hold that any community-based programming requires intricate knowledge of the people who form the community, since without community interaction and a degree of social cohesion any envisioned programmes may not succeed.     

Identifying the source of atmospheric moisture over arid deserts using stable isotopes (2H and 18O) in precipitation

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle in arid desert areas. To date, however, few studies have been conducted on investigating the isotope characteristics and moisture sources of precipitation in arid desert environments. The Alxa Desert Plateau is a critical arid desert area in North China. This study is the first to analyse the stable isotopic composition of precipitation to identify the sources of atmospheric moisture over this plateau. Our results show that the δD and δ¹⁸O values of precipitation across the plateau change greatly at both daily and monthly timescales, and exhibit seasonal variations. Among the main meteorological parameters, atmospheric temperature is the most predominant factor controlling the isotopic composition and the δD–δ¹⁸O relationship of local precipitation. Analyses of the precipitation isotopes with the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model reveal that (a) the westerly and polar moisture sources are the dominant controls on summer and winter precipitation and (b) the evaporation of local lake water significantly affects winter precipitation even though it only represents a small amount. Based on the isotope data of 2013–2016 precipitation, a local meteoric water line (LMWL) is derived: δD = (8.20 ± 0.22)·δ¹⁸O + (8.15 ± 2.16)‰ for the study site. Compared to the global meteoric water line, the LMWL has a greater slope and lower d‐excess. This can be explained by admixing of atmospheric moisture resulting from the evaporation of local lake water. Based on this LMWL, we are able to trace that groundwater of the Badain Jaran Desert originates from the surrounding mountains with altitudes of <4,000 m. The newly derived LMWL shows that the recharge altitudes of desert groundwater are overestimated on the basis of the previous LMWLs. This study not only provides insights into the hydrological cycle but also offers guidance for water resource management in arid desert areas of China. Additionally, this study provides techniques that can be applied to the analyses of precipitation isotopes in similar arid regions of the world.     

Relation between mean stress,thermodynamic, and lithostatic pressure

Pressure is one of the most important parameters to be quantified in geological problems. However, in metamorphic systems the pressure is usually calculated with two different approaches. One pressure calculation is based on petrological phase equilibria and this pressure is often termed thermodynamic pressure. The other calculation is based on continuum mechanics, which provides a mean stress that is commonly used to estimate the thermodynamic pressure. Both thermodynamic pressure calculations can be justified by the accuracy and applicability of the results. Here, we consider systems with low‐differential stress (<1 kbar) and no irreversible volumetric deformation, and refer to them as conventional systems. We investigate the relationship between mean stress and thermodynamic pressure. We discuss the meaning of thermodynamic pressure and its calculation for irreversible processes such as viscous deformation and heat conduction, which exhibit entropy production. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the mean stress for incompressible viscous deformation is essentially equal to the mean stress for the corresponding viscous deformation with elastic compressibility, if the characteristic time of deformation is five times longer than the Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation time that is equal to the ratio of shear viscosity to bulk modulus. For typical lithospheric rocks, this Maxwell time is smaller than c. 10,000 years. Therefore, numerical simulations of long‐term (>10 kyr) geodynamic processes, employing incompressible deformation, provide mean stress values that are close to the mean‐stress value associated with elastic compressibility. Finally, we show that for conventional systems the mean stress is essentially equal to the thermodynamic pressure. However, mean stress and, hence, thermodynamic pressure can be significantly different from the lithostatic pressure.     

北京地区局地环流观测分析

应用2008—2015年逐时自动气象站观测资料,分析了北京地区局地风场的分布特点及季节性变化。结果表明:(1)北京地区局地风场受山谷风和城市热岛环流的共同影响,风速主要沿地形梯度分布。西部、北部高海拔山地风速较大,平原地带风速相对较小。平均而言,东西方向的局地风强度约为0.16m·s~(-1),南北方向的局地风强度约为0.07m·s~(-1)。(2)局地风速在季节分布上以夏季为最大,冬季为最小。其日变化为双峰型结构,于每日09及16时左右达到峰值区。(3)局地风速的u、v分量在正(负)距平的维持时长、日振幅值上存在较明显的差异。低层风场在午后到前半夜以东南风为主,后半夜开始到正午前则以西北风为主。