自调节趋势分析法

自调节趋势分析法的特点是:能自动消除局部成分对计算拟合区域成分的多项式的系数的影响,并能确定多项式的阶次,因而在地学数据处理及预测中有广泛的应用。     

Local government, local economic development and quality of life in Poland

The establishment of local self-government was a key part of the post-1989 transformation in East and Central Europe. Local government in both Western and East and Central Europe has increasingly been expected to play a role in local economic development (LED). Local government is one important agent in the complex processes of building 'institutional thickness' to ensure the development of local economies and the quality of life of inhabitants. This paper presents the results of a national postal questionnaire survey of the LED role of the lowest level of local self-government in Poland, the gmina or commune. The paper establishes a baseline of knowledge regarding: the local economic problems faced by communes; their attitudinal, strategic and organisational responses; and the main factors which are hindering the communes' LED role. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Seismic recognition of local inhomogeneities

A simple method to contour local inhomogeneities using seismic data is proposed. It formalizes an approximate inversion method which is based on the interpretation of local inhomogeneities as making the differences between an actual seismic data set and a previous reference model. It uses the optimal statistical criteria of parameter estimation and recognition and the ray representation of the waves spreading. Any combination of direct, reflected and/or other types of waves may be used as the database. Inhomogeneities, having a size two times above the wavelength of the seismic waves, can be resolved. Laboratory experiments, using ultrasonic waves and analysis of data from field experiments, confirmed the theoretical results. The method can be used to search for ore bodies, kimberlite cubes, oiltraps, etc.     

竖向质量分布对框架结构动力特性影响的研究

在框架结构动力分析中,往往是把填充墙质量集中在楼层处进行求解.文中考虑填充墙实际分布对结构自振特性的影响,通过传递矩阵法求解结构自振频率和振型,并进一步分析了高阶频率的分布规律.结果表明,与采用集中质量模型的振型叠加法相比,填充墙的竖向质量分布会对框架结构高阶频率产生很大影响;框架结构的高阶模态具有局部性和密集分组的特...     

全球季风系统的稳定性与年代际变化

采用1948～2004年共57年NCEP再分析逐日风场资料,分3个气候时段对全球季风系统的稳定性与年代际变化作了初步研究.发现全球季风系统的地理分布和斜压结构具有很好的稳定性,但强度存在明显的年代际变化.季风的年代际变化以强度的局域振荡和持续加强或减弱为主要形式,不具有传播性.不同高度季风年代际变化的敏感区不同,在对流层低层主要的年代际变化位于北半球中的东半球;而在对流层高层则位于西半球热带地区;在平流层则在环球的两个纬带(20～40°N和赤道带).     

局地温度变化中各项因子的定量估算

基于安徽沿江地区高温、降水两类天气过程,利用逐时实测气温、NCAR/NCEP再分析资料提供的风、气温、垂直速度等资料,从天气学基本原理出发,由天气学原理和ω与w的换算关系式等估算局地气温的平流项、垂直项大小,并由实测气温经过计算获得非绝热项的估算值。结果表明,各项对于局地温度的升温作用为：平流项的变化相对比较复杂,就高温天气而言平流项的作用往往使得局地温度降低,但是两类天气平流项的作用非常弱;两类天气过程中的垂直项都导致局地温度升高,比例占1％～5％;可以说,安徽沿江地区局地温度的增温主要来自于非绝热项,增温比例常常超过95％,它对局地温度的升高具有举足轻重的作用。     

大连市气象局网络安全系统的设计与实现

根据安全网络的要求,利用先进的网络安全技术与设备,针对大连市气象局局域网在网络结构、网络安全方面存在的问题及隐患,提出网络系统改造方案及加强网络安全的措施:网络改造方案中采用子网划分技术重新规划网络结构,实现子网划分;针对可能存在的内、外部网络攻击,部署了多层次防线,对边界防毒和应用服务器防毒及客户端防毒均作了相应的部署。采用虚拟专用网络(virtual private network,VPN)技术、虚拟局域网(virtual local area network,VLAN)技术、网络版病毒防护软件、网关防毒产品、防火墙技术和物理隔离等多种专业网络安全产品,构建整体安全网络系统。实施后表明:网络安全得到保障,网络通信质量显著提高,达到了建设安全、畅通、高速局域网络的目的。     

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.