增长曲线模型中线性估计类所有可容许估计

对增长曲线模型中回归矩阵的函数的线性估计进行了研究。在矩阵损失下 ,作者得到了线性估计在一切线性估计类中可容许的充要条件     

Inverse reconstructions of ecosystem flows in investigating regime shifts: impact of the choice of objective function

Inverse analysis is increasingly used in ecosystem modelling to objectively reconstruct a large number of unknown flows or interactions from a small number of observations. This type of analysis may be useful in relating observed regime shifts in ecosystem structure to underlying processes. Inversions of ecosystem flow networks currently use a constrained least-squares solution which at the same time minimizes the squared norm (the sum of squares) of the reconstructed flows. This minimum norm (MN) inversion is thought to be a parsimonious solution to the ecosystem flow inverse problem, but it may well not reflect how ecosystems are organised. It has been proposed instead that ecosystems evolve to maximize energy/mass flows or that they maximize the information content of the network weighted by ecosystem flows (ascendancy). We used simulated inverse experiments, where inverse analyses are applied to simulations of flow networks, to explore objective functions different than the MN generally used. We could not compute inverse solutions that maximize ascendancy because the objective function is unbounded. We could calculate inversions that maximize flows; however, these generally overestimated the simulated flows, even though the simulations were designed to maximize flows. It appears that the ecosystem flow inverse problem is too under-determined (too few data relative to the number of unknowns) to allow the use of these maximizing goal functions. We introduce a new minimization that simultaneously minimizes the squared flows and the squared differences between flows. This smoothing minimization makes the inverse flows as even as possible and it helps with some technical issues with MN inversions. The simulated inverse experiments indicated that this smoothed norm (SM) is the most robust in comparative analyses of contrasting ecosystem states, such as those that can be associated with regime shifts. Like the MN inversion, the SM inversion has no ecological basis. However, it is a conservative norm that is less likely to produce false differences between the dynamics of regimes.     

千里岩的气温变化特征及其与西北太平洋副热带高压的关系

本文根据１９６０～１９９４年千里岩和青岛月平均气温资料，分析了千里岩与青岛３５年来气温的年、季变化特征及差别，发现３５年来，千里岩和青岛的年、季平均气温均呈变暖趋势，但千里岩增温幅度较青岛小。从分析中发现，与气温变暖趋势相对应，西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）面积、强度指数的年、季变化也呈明显的增强、增大趋势。且年平均气温与冬季副高面积指数相关最显著。最后依此关系建立回归方程，并预测了１９９６年千里岩年平均气温的变化趋势。     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

受扰线性系统的前馈-反馈最优控制

针对具有外部持续扰动的线性系统，研究前馈-反馈最优控制律的设计问题。给出了最优控制律的存在唯一性条件。并提出了最优控制律的设计算法。利用滤波器解决了前馈控制的物理不可实现问题。仿真结果表明，此算法易于实现，与传统的反馈最优控制相比对抑制外部扰动具有较强的鲁棒性。     

青岛—石臼所沿岸潮流特征分析

本文对青岛—石臼所沿岸潮流特征进行了分析。实际观测资料表明,这一带潮流具有典型的往复流性质,并有较明显的不对称性和较大的垂直变化。文中指出涨落潮流不对称性是由于余流和分潮流影响的结果。讨论了不对称性随余流和分潮流的变化和潮流垂直梯度的特征。不对称和垂直梯度对泥沙运动和污染扩散的影响在文中也作了阐述。     

McCreary和Fickian湍扩散形式差异的分析

用矩阵方法,求解McCreary和Fickian铅垂向湍扩散形式下,无界海洋条件时在风应力和深层浮力作用下的线性解。得出不同的湍扩散系数A情况下McCreary与Fickian湍扩散形式的流场结构。指出随湍扩散系数的增加,McCreary和Fickian湍扩散形式下u分量结构及其量值差异增大。在Fickian湍扩散形式下,能量穿越密度跃层的传递能力较强。当A=0.1cm~2s~(-3)时,在风应力和深层浮力作用下两种湍扩散形式造成流场的差异很小。提出在小湍扩散系数下,用McCreary湍扩散形式研究热带海洋环流,其结果和Fickian形式应相当一致。     

Numerical study of the meridional overturning circulation with “mixing hotspots” in the Pacific Ocean

Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys.