Casualties in dry bulk shipping (1963–1996)

In recent years, bulk carriers have been identified with high risks of catastrophic structural failure and foundering, and with heavy loss of human life. This study, based upon Lloyd's of London casualty records, identified four risk factors that had significant, independent effect upon the likelihood of a bulk carrier foundering. The risk of foundering increased with the age of the ship, and was related to the ship's flag of registration. Most importantly, however, increased risks were found for heavy cargoes of iron ore and scrap steel or iron, and for trading routes to the Far East and from Europe to North America. Additional safety measures, in particular regarding ship design and high-risk trades, may well be necessary to reduce the high casualty rates.     

Review of resource analysis and related studies: Working group,Mathematical Geology,freie Universität Berlin

The working group Mathematical Geology of the Freie Universität Berlin was formed in 1971. We review quantitative methods used by the working group since 1983 to treat mineral exploration problems. The methods applied vary from elementary statistical analysis of multivariate exploration data to optimal strategies for selecting favorable targets, and from multiobjective decision-making for additional drill hole locations to expert systems in exploration.The methods applied are directly related to the level of information at each stage of the exploration process. Special emphasis was placed on the relationship between and evaluation of subjective and objective data. Case studies illustrating the various methods are presented for different kinds of mineral deposits and exploration environments.     

Calculating Pollution Indices by Heavy Metals in Ecological Geochemistry Assessment and a Case Study in Parks of Beijing

Pollution index is a powerful tool for ecological geochemistry assessment. The commonly used pollution indices by heavy metals in soils and sediments were classified as two types of single index and integrated index in an algorithm point of view. Four single indices of contamination factor (or concentration factor), ecological risk factor, enrichment factor, and index of geo-accumulation were illustrated, and the reference values for calculating single indices were distinguished into background levels and threshold pollution values. Eight integrated indices were divided into two groups. One group is suitable for the normal distribution single indices including the sum, average, weighted average,vector modulus, and Nemerow pollution indices, and the other for log-normal distribution including the product, root of product, and weighted power product pollution indices. Using background levels as reference values, five contamination classes were divided, and the terminologies are suggested for the single and integrated indices to unify the assessment results. Software of EGAPI was developed in a single document interface to calculate the four single and eight integrated indices by heavy metals to assess the quality of soil and sediment ecological geochemistry. Pollution indices by heavy metals of Cu,Pb, and Zn in soils in parks of Beijing were calculated using EGAPI software, and these five contamination classes and terminologies suggested in this study were evaluated and used. Results ofintegrated indices of Cu, Pb, and Zn in soils indicated that the soil qualities are unpolluted as a whole and varied from low polluted to unpolluted status from the center to the outskirts of Beijing City.     

Accuracy assessment of lidar-derived digital elevation models

Despite the relatively high cost of airborne lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs), such products are usually presented without a satisfactory associated estimate of accuracy. For the most part, DEM accuracy estimates are typically provided by comparing lidar heights against a finite sample of check point coordinates from an independent source of higher accuracy, supposing a normal distribution of the derived height differences or errors. This paper proposes a new methodology to assess the vertical accuracy of lidar DEMs using confidence intervals constructed from a finite sample of errors computed at check points. A non-parametric approach has been tested where no particular error distribution is assumed, making the proposed methodology especially applicable to non-normal error distributions of the type usually found in DEMs derived from lidar. The performance of the proposed model was experimentally validated using Monte Carlo simulation on 18 vertical error data-sets. Fifteen of these data-sets were computed from original lidar data provided by the International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Working Group III/3, using their respective filtered reference data as ground truth. The three remaining data-sets were provided by the Natural Environment Research Council's Airborne Research and Survey Facility lidar system, together with check points acquired using high precision kinematic GPS. The results proved promising, the proposed models reproducing the statistical behaviour of vertical errors of lidar using a favourable number of check points, even in the cases of data-sets with non-normally distributed residuals. This research can therefore be considered as a potentially important step towards improving the quality control of lidar-derived DEMs.     

基于高分辨率遥感数据的城市居住单元交通环境质量评价——以厦门市为例

居住单元是与人们生活密切相关的社区范围,其交通环境的优劣是衡量居住单元环境好坏的重要标准之一。高分辨遥感影像 的高空间分辨率特点为我们提供了研究居住单元交通环境的可能性。本文从区域交通环境、路网可达性出发,对城市居住单元交通 环境质量的遥感评价方法进行了研究,根据高分辨率遥感影像的特点构建了居住单元交通环境的多级指标评价体系,并对厦门市的 50个居住单元进行了评价分析。实验表明,利用高分辨率影像进行城市交通环境质量评价是一种成本较低,简便可行的方法。     

广东省五华县地质灾害形成特征及防治对策

五华县主要地质灾害类型有滑坡、崩塌、地面塌陷、水土流失等。其中以滑坡、崩塌为主,多分布在东南、南部花岗岩区、北部花岗岩风化土区等广大中低山及丘陵区,具有点多面广,灾害点个体规模小,稳定性差,活动频繁,地质灾害发育呈明显的地域性与季节性分布等特点。五华县地质灾害的形成与发生是多种致灾因素相互作用的结果。地层岩性是其形成的内在要素,它在一定程度上决定着地质灾害的发育程度与类型;地形地貌与植被是地质灾害形成的外在条件,它制约着崩、滑、塌等致灾地质作用的形成;大气降雨是地质灾害形成与发生的激发因素,决定着地质灾害发生的速度和时间;人类工程活动是影响地质灾害形成与发生的最主要、最直接的因素。对地质灾害的防治应采用避让、预防、监测及治理措施,做到避让与治理结合,以群测群防为基本手段,点状灾害以工程治理与生物防治为主;面状灾害以生物防治为主;采用点、面结合综合治理的方法。     

基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报思路探讨

文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。     

山区房后边坡安全评价的探讨——以安溪县为例

由于地质灾害的突发性和引发因素的复杂性,在及时和有效地掌握潜在隐患部位上还亟待进一步探索与细化,力求防灾抗灾工作有的放矢,以确保人民群众的生命财产损失降到最低限度。本文就基于山区的基本特征和房后边坡潜在地质安全隐患基本信息调查,简要分析房后边坡孕灾致灾环境,并针对它们的影响程度,采取层次分析（AHP）等方法来确定安全评价因子权重和安全系数,对构造安全评价结构作进一步研究。     

追忆李四光对防震减灾的贡献,以系统整体观指导防震应急

笔者在追忆李四光地震科学和防震减灾指导思想的基础上,提出了以系统整体观指导防震应急的新论点,包括:运用地壳运动整体观研究地震规律;应用地震预测整体观进行地震预测;划分活动性构造体系,研究构造活动性;加强综合监测,研究各种地震前兆和相关的自然变异的发展趋势;圈定地震风险区,制定防震应急预案等.并结合中国的实际情况进行了论述.     

北京市有机氯农药填图与风险评价

采用1个样/km2的密度、1个分析组合样/16km2的方法,对北京市784km2范围内的土壤、大气干湿沉降物、大气颗粒物中HCH、DDT的含量和空间分布特征进行有机氯农药填图.查明2000年北京市地表土壤HCH和DDT的平均含量分别为8.80±11.83ng/g、108.99±301.90ng/g.2006年大气干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT平均含量分别为10.09±9.60ng/g、12.99±13.51ng/g,HCH和DDT的年沉降通量分别为996.57±939.96g/a·km2、1291.53±1342.28g/a·km2.2006年大气颗粒物PM10和PM2.5中的HCH含量分别为0.294±0.205ng/m3和0.217±0.137ng/m3,DDT的平均含量分别为1.037±1.301ng/m3和0.522±0.773ng/m3,显著高于2002-2003年度大气颗粒物中HCH(PM100.01786ng/m3,PM250.01731ng/m3)和DDT(PM100.01672ng/m3,PM2.50.02353ng/m3)的含量,表明北京市或周边地区仍在使用含HCH和DDT化学成分的农药.以2000年北京地表土壤和2006年大气干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT的含量为基础,对2020年土壤中HCH和DDT的时空演变的预测显示,即使干湿沉降物中HCH和DDT的沉降通量每年以5%的速率递减,到2020年土壤中HCH和DDT的环境质量仍不能显著改善,而控制和削减北京及周边地区含HCH和DDT成分农药的使用将是改善北京地表土壤环境质量的关键措施.