Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

阜新矿区地面塌陷灾害对土地生产力的影响

在研究地面塌陷对一个地区的影响时，一般只侧重于其对建筑物、铁路的影响，而对土地生产力影响的探讨和研究还不够深入。对于阜新矿区来说，地面塌陷对该区土地生产力的影响更是空白，前期的工作仅仅侧重于地面塌陷的调查，如果就地面塌陷对土地生产力的影响做一决的概括和分析，无疑会给今后治理由地面塌陷带来的灾害提供借鉴作用。本文结合大量实测、实算数据，应用土地复理论与方法对地面塌陷引起的土地侵蚀、土壤盐碱化、土壤湿度、土壤质量水平等四个方面做了较为系统的阐述，并对灾害的治理提出了见解。     

台湾地面沉降现状与防治对策

台湾地面沉降始于20世纪50年代初期的台北地区。随着地下水开发利用的普及与养殖渔业和相关耗水产业的移入，西部沿海平原区地面沉降现象普遍，尤以彰化、云林、嘉义、屏东等地显著，总沉降面积达1165km^2。约占台湾平原区的1／100其中屏东地区1970—2001年的累积沉降量达3．20m，最大沉降速率曾超过40cm／a(1979-1981年)。目前彰化地区的沉降速率最大，2000—2001年达17．6cm/a。其它绝大部分地区沉降速率在5cm/a以下。台湾地面沉降的主要原因系开采地下水引起的。仅屏东地区就有4000余口深井，地下水年均开采量1．65亿m^3，最高达3．2亿m^3以上。该岛第四纪地层厚800—1000m，沉降主要发生在60-300m土层内。目前沉降发展态势可分为暂时稳定、渐趋稳定、显著沉降和潜在沉降4类。台湾目前采用一等水准测量、GPS及一孔多标感应分层监测技术进行地面沉降监测。在主要沉降区均设有多处GPS固定站实行自动化监测，一孔多标土层分层监测共有19组。采用数值模拟对地面沉降进行分析与预测。通过用水规划的制定、督导和实施地面沉降的控制与管理。1995—2000年实施第一期地面沉降防治执行方案，2001-2004年实施第二期，针对不同地区沉降发展的不同态势采取相应对策，已取得良好的社会成效。     

灰色系统在地面沉降分析中的应用

该文将灰色系统理论引入地面沉降的研究之中。根据上海地面沉降的历史数据建立了上海地面沉降发展的GM(1,1)模型以及地面沉降与地下水位变化的映射GM(1,2)模型,最后运用所建立的模型对地面沉降的发展态势进行了预测。     

上海现阶段主要沉降层及其变形特征分析

以上海地质条件为基础，根据最近十几年分层标和含水层水位观测资料分析了上海地面沉降的主要沉降层，分析结果表明目前上海的主要沉降层是第五砂层。从第五砂层水位与时间的关系、变形与时间的关系和水位与变形的关系出发，结合室内实验的结果，指出第五砂层的变形特征是地下水位在一定范围内反复上升-下降时，变形以弹性为主、一般情况下则以塑性变形为主、应力应变关系为非线性以及存在蠕变变形。在建立地面沉降模型时必须考虑含水砂层的这些变形特点。     

Scaling effects on modeled surface energy-balance components using the NOAH-OSU land surface model

As surface exchange processes are highly non-linear and heterogeneous in space and time, it is important to know the appropriate scale for the reasonable prediction of these exchange processes. For example, the explicit representation of surface variability has been vital in predicting mesoscale weather events such as late-afternoon thunderstorms initiated by latent heat exchanges in mid-latitude regions of the continental United States. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of different spatial scales of input data on modeled fluxes, so as to better understand the resolution needed for accurate modeling. A statistical procedure was followed to select two cells from the Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment region, each 20 km×20 km, representing the most homogeneous and the most heterogeneous surface conditions (based on soil and vegetation) within the study region. The NOAH-OSU (Oregon State University) Land Surface Model (LSM) was employed to estimate surface energy fluxes. Three scales of study (200 m, 2 and 20 km) were considered in order to investigate the impacts of the aggregation of input data, especially soil and vegetation inputs, on the model output. Model results of net radiation and latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were compared for the three scales. For the heterogeneous area, the model output at the 20-km resolution showed some differences when compared with the 200-m and 2-km resolutions. This was more pronounced in latent heat (12% decrease), sensible heat (22% increase), and ground heat flux (44% increase) estimation than in net radiation. The scaling effects were much less for the relatively homogeneous land area with 5% increase in sensible heat and 4% decrease in ground heat flux estimation. All of the model outputs for the 2- and 20-km resolutions were in close agreement. The results suggested that, for this study region, soils and vegetation input resolution of about 2 km should be chosen for realistic modeling of surface exchange processes. This resolution was sufficient to capture the effects of sub-grid scale heterogeneity, while avoiding the data and computational difficulties associated with higher spatial resolutions.     

关联度分析法在确定土地定级因素权重中的应用

从关联度分析法的基本原理入手，介绍了应用关联度分析法确定土地定级因素权重的具体方法，探讨了关联度分析法运用于土地定级因素权重确定的可行性。     

数字土地信息系统的集成模式探讨

简述土地管理的特点,分析土地信息系统的组成,具体介绍如何实现数字土地信息系统的集成。     

土地管理办公自动化系统的设计与实现

深入分析了土地管理的工作流程、建立了土地办公自动管理的数据库子系统，在此基础上研制出各种业务系统，并努力实现第三代OA——知识管理的层次和目标。     

模拟退火算法在动态建立基准地价模型中的应用

阐述了传统基准地价评估模型建立流程将地价样本检验与模型建立分离的不足，引入了模拟退火算法思想，对目标函数、初始状态、新状态产生、新状态接受、初温、温度更新函数以及抽样准则、算法终止准则等关键问题进行设计，将地价样本检验、优化组合与模型建立有机结合，并设计了基于模拟退火算法的动态建立基准地价模型的流程，最后应用实例验证了方法的可行性。