洞庭湖吞吐调蓄数学模型及调洪功能评估

洞庭湖是一个吞吐调节型湖泊,是我国第二大淡水湖。近年来,洪涝灾害十分频繁,人们的生命财产安全受到严重威胁。为满足洞庭湖减灾防灾综合治理的需要,本文通过对8个不同时相的TM图像计算机解译和面积计算,查明了洞庭湖的面积和容积,建立了湖水面积与水位及湖水体积与水位的相关数学模型,并对其蓄洪调节能力进行评价,获得了满意的效果。该成果对洞庭湖区防洪减灾及综合治理具有十分重要的意义。     

湖泊记录中的古气候和古环境指标及其地质灾害信息

笔者在简略论述反映古气候、古环境的多种代用指标的基础上，讨论其在揭示地质灾害信息方面的意义，并分析从中提取地质灾害信息的方法和思路。认为在沉积物粒度判别基础上， 沉积物表现出的较低δ^18O值，较低δ13C值和较低碳酸盐含量以及较高的有机质含量特征可能指示了地质灾害方面的信息。     

土地覆被变化对陆地碳循环的影响—以黄河三角洲河口地区为例

土地利用/土地覆被变化是全球变化研究的重点，是影响陆地碳循环的一个重要因子。该文对黄河三角洲河口地区1992年和1996年9月份的TM影像进行非监督分类，做出该地区土地覆被类型分布图，以及估算土地覆被类型的变化面积，计算结果显示1992年该研究地区植被碳库和土壤碳库分别为11.43×10     

大气中一氧化碳浓度变化的模拟研究

应用全球二维大气化学模式,模拟了CO、CH4和OH自由基等成分自工业革命到2020年的长期变化.模拟的全球CO平均体积分数在1840年、1991年和2020年分别为27×10-6、76×10-6和105×10-6.从1840到1991年,OH自由基数浓度从7.17×105个分子/cm3下降到5.79×105个分子/cm3,降低了19%.模拟的CH4长期变化与冰芯资料相符.模拟的20世纪80年代CO体积分数年增长率为1.03%～1.06%.大气中CO在20世纪90年代前是增长的,而到90年代初观测到CO体积分数突然下降.应用二维大气化学模式对此原因进行了模拟研究,结果表明,CO排放源的减少是CO体积分数下降的主要因子,平流层臭氧减少是另一个重要因子.尽管CO排放源的减少对大气CH4增长率的变化有较大影响,而CH4排放源减少对CO体积分数变化却几乎没有影响.     

Behaviour of H2O2, NH3, and black carbon in mixed-phase clouds during CIME

We investigated the partitioning of trace substances during the phase transition from supercooled to mixed-phase cloud induced by artificial seeding. Simultaneous determination of the concentrations of H₂O₂, NH₃ and black carbon (BC) in both condensed and interstitial phases with high time resolution showed that the three species undergo different behaviour in the presence of a mixture of ice crystals and supercooled droplets. Both H₂O₂ and NH₃ are efficiently scavenged by growing ice crystals, whereas BC stayed predominantly in the interstitial phase. In addition, the scavenging of H₂O₂ is driven by co-condensation with water vapour onto ice crystals while NH₃ uptake into the ice phase is more efficient than co-condensation alone. The high solubility of NH₄⁺ in the ice could explain this result. Finally, it appears that the H₂O₂–SO₂ reaction is very slow in the ice phase with respect to the liquid phase. Our results are directly applicable for clouds undergoing limited riming.     

Formation and failure of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley associated with eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex, Alaska

The formation of lahars and a debris avalanche during Holocene eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex in south-central Alaska have led to the development of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley. Debris dams composed of lahar and debris-avalanche deposits formed at least five times in the last 8000–10,000 years and most recently during eruptions of Crater Peak vent in 1953 and 1992. Water impounded by a large debris avalanche of early Holocene (?) age may have destabilized an upstream glacier-dammed lake causing a catastrophic flood on the Chakachatna River. A large alluvial fan just downstream of the debris-avalanche deposit is strewn with boulders and blocks and is probably the deposit generated by this flood. Application of a physically based dam-break model yields estimates of peak discharge (Q_p) attained during failure of the debris-avalanche dam in the range 10⁴<Q_p<10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates of 10–100 m h⁻¹. Smaller, short-lived, lahar dams that formed during historical eruptions in 1953, and 1992, impounded smaller lakes in the upper Chakachatna River valley and peak flows attained during failure of these volcanic debris dams were in the range 10³<Q_p<10⁴ m³ s⁻¹ for plausible breach erosion rates.Volcanic debris dams have formed at other volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region, Aleutian arc, and Wrangell Mountains but apparently did not fail rapidly or result in large or catastrophic outflows. Steep valley topography and frequent eruptions at volcanoes in this region make for significant hazards associated with the formation and failure of volcanic debris dams.     

A rod-less piston corer for lake sediments; an improved, rope-operated percussion corer

A lightweight, percussion corer, suitable for use in remote lakes of moderate depth, is described. The operation of the corer and suggestions for securing and transporting long sediment cores are presented. In particular, the design and use of a recovery pot, which allows the retrieval of undisturbed cores from sediments of unknown depth, is detailed.     

Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.     

Four thousand years of atmospheric lead pollution in northern Europe: a summary from Swedish lake sediments

This paper presents a large palaeolimnological study of the pre-industrial and industrial history of atmospheric lead pollution deposition in Sweden. Both lead concentrations and ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratios have been analysed in 31 lakes covering most of Sweden, plus one lake in north-west Russia. Four of the lakes have varved (annually-laminated) sediments. Isotope analysis is a sensitive and effective method to distinguish pollution lead from natural catchment lead and to detect early pollution influence, because the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio in unpolluted background sediments in Sweden was > 1.3, while that of lead from pollution, derived from ores and coal, was < 1.2. The sediments show a consistent picture of past temporal changes in atmospheric lead pollution. These changes include: the first traces of pollution 3,500-3,000 yrs ago; a pollution peak in Greek-Roman Times (about 0 AD); lower lead fall-out between 400 and 900 AD; a significant and permanent increase in atmospheric lead fall-out from about 1000 AD; an increase with the Industrial revolution; a major increase following World War II; the maximum peak in the 1970s; and decreasing fall-out over the last decades. The four varved sediments provide high-resolution records of atmospheric pollution. They reveal pollution peaks about 1200 and 1530 AD which match the history of metal production in Europe. According to the varve records the lead pollution level in the late 1990s had decreased beneath the level of the 1530s. The pollution level 1200 AD was about 35% of the 1980s, when lead pollution was still near its all time high. About 50% of the total accumulated atmospheric lead pollution deposition through time was deposited in the pre-industrial period. The sediments also show a consistent picture of the geographic distribution of atmospheric lead deposition over time, with higher deposition in south Sweden and declining levels to the north, which supports the hypothesis that the main sources of pre-industrial atmospheric lead pollution in Sweden were cultural areas in mainland Europe and Great Britain.