不同要素谱逼近对高分辨区域数值模式梅雨模拟的改进

为改进高分辨率区域数值天气预报模式雨带模拟偏差,利用WRF模式探讨了不同要素及其组合谱逼近方法对2015年浙江典型梅雨天气预报性能的影响。结果表明:(1)不同单要素逼近对梅雨模拟效果影响差异明显,风场逼近对模拟结果改进较大,高度场逼近对结果略有改善,而温度场逼近主要表现为负效应;风场组合了其他要素的逼近效果与单要素类似,故将水平风场谱逼近确定为最优方案。(2)最优方案对梅雨期间形势场各要素改进程度的排序为纬向风、经向风、相对湿度、温度场和高度场;三个特征层850、500、200 hPa各要素平均的均方根误差(相关系数)分别降低了(增加了)24. 1%(13.6%)、22.7%(21.7%)和13.0%(12.2%);且改进幅度随预报时效的延长而增加,这主要与区域模式内部大尺度系统的误差随积分时间增长有关。(3)典型个例分析显示,最优方案在较好订正低层风场及切变线动力条件的基础上,经过数值模式各物理过程的协同积分也修正了高湿区等关键热力因子,最终改进了高分辨率区域模式的梅雨模拟。     

基于WRF模式的风电场短期风速集成预报方法研究

风能始源于大气的运动,具有很大的随机性和间歇性。风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确性具有重要的意义。对于复杂地形条件下,风速的预报一直是各国研究的难点和重点。为了提高风电场短期风速预报的准确性,本研究采用多种边界层参数化方案来集成预报风速,将各单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速及相应的实测风速数据,应用随机森林算法建立集成预报模型,对风电场的短期风速进行集成预报研究。试验结果表明,采用集成预报风速方法,预报的风速误差相比于单一边界层参数化方案预报的风速误差明显减小,对研究区域的风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的模拟效果,能够有效提高风速预报的准确率。     

Polar WRF模式海冰密集度方案对北极海雾模拟效果的个例研究

全球变暖的背景下,北极航线的常规通航甚至商业运营有望实现,而海雾会严重影响航道上船只的航行安全。海冰的存在使海气之间相互作用变得更为复杂,是研究北极海雾不可忽略的因素。船载观测发现,与中纬度常见平流冷却雾形成时气温下降速度往往超过海水降温速度不同,北极海雾发生时海冰的存在还会使海水降温速度超过空气降温速度。然而目前海冰分布是否会影响模式模拟海雾的准确性还不得而知,因此本文利用Polar WRF（Polar Weather Research and Forecasting）模式模拟了中国第七次北极考察中观测到的一次海雾过程,并进行海冰密集度敏感性试验。通过与船载观测和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据比对发现,在低浮冰区内（海冰密集度小于50%）考虑海冰分布时可以更加准确地刻画潜热通量与水汽通量,模拟出与观测事实相符的表层空气降温与增湿过程以及相对湿度的变化,因此能够更好地刻画海雾的三维结构及其生消演变。     

内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件环流演变特征及季节预测信号

文章研究关注了内蒙古冬季极端多雪气候事件的季节预测问题,在对大量降水观测资料、海温及大气环流场资料进行统计、分析、研究的基础上,确定了历史上58a(1960—2017年)内蒙古冬季极端多雪和少雪气候事件样本,通过对大气环流场的对比分析发现极端多雪或少雪冬季环流场特征显著不同,分析后确定了影响内蒙古冬季降雪的主要环流系统,包括西太平洋副热带高压、极涡、东亚大槽、环流E型及南方涛动等系统。同时,探索了对这些主要环流系统具有预测意义的来自海洋和大气场的预测信号,对预测信号关键区做了标准化定量提取,确定了预测信号综合指数分段判别阈值,给出了预测概念模型,取得了较好预测效果。     

附有限制条件的间接平差与附有条件的条件平差的内在联系探讨

通过运用附有条件的条件平差原理解算附有限制条件的间接平差模型,以及运用附有限制条件的间接平差原理解算附有条件的条件平差模型,推证得出结论:对于同一个平差问题而言,这两种平差模型是完全等价的,都可作为各种经典平差模型的概括平差模型。     

基于ARMA模型的广元市中区经济增长预测分析

利用广元市市中区1978年到2004年GDP数据,构建了广元市市中区时间序列趋势的ARMA模型.在此基础上,对广元市市中区2006年到2010年未来5年内的GDP进行了预测,并针对该区"十一五"规划的各项目标任务提出了一些对策建议,为广元市市中区未来的发展提供参考依据.     

Atmospheric radiative transfer simulation for atmospheric correction of remote sensing data

The radiance leaving the earth-atmosphere system which can be sensed by a satellite borne radiometer is the sum of radiation emission from the earth surface and each atmospheric level that are transmitted to the top of the atmosphere. The radiation emission from the earth surface and the radiance of each atmospheric level can be separated from the radiance at the top the atmospheric level measured by a satellite borne radiometer. However, it is very difficult to measure the atmospheric radiance, especially the synchronous measurement with the satellite. Thus some atmospheric radiative transfer models have been developed to provide many options for modeling atmospheric radiation transport, such as LOWTRAN, MODTRAN, 6S, FASCODE, LBLRTM, SHARC, and SAMM. Meanwhile, these models can support the detailed detector system design, the optimization and evaluation of satellite mission parameters, and the data processing procedures. As an example, the newly atmospheric radiative transfer models, MODTRAN will be compared with other models after the atmospheric radiative transfer is described. And the atmospheric radiative transfer simulation procedures and their applications to atmospheric transmittance, retrieval of atmospheric elements, and surface parameters, will also be presented.     

DISCUSSION: ‘HYDROLOGICAL MODEL OF PEAT-MOUND FORM WITH VERTICALLY VARYING HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY’ BY ADRIAN C. ARMSTRONG

In this comment we argue that the premise on which the peat mound model developed by Armstrong (Earth Surface Process and Landforms, 1995, 20 , 473–477) is based, that hydraulic conductivity shows an exponential decline with depth in bog peats, is unsound. Empirical evidence in the literature for such an exponential decline is less sound than Armstrong suggests. In addition, Armstrong's suggestion that the hypothesis of Baird and Gaffney (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 1995, 20 , 561–566) supports an exponential decline is shown to be erroneous.     

IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF NATURAL CHANNEL NETWORKS FROM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS

The identification and analysis of natural channel networks from digital elevation models are discussed from the point of view of their environmental applications. An interactive, graphical software package that implements some of the most widely used techniques for the automatic recognition of channel networks and for the computation of some useful geomorphologic indices and functions is presented.     

FINITE ELEMENT MODELLING FOR LAND DISPLACEMENTS DUE TO PUMPING

Equations of equilibrium (force balance) and flow in multidimensions were coupled in this paper to describe land displacements due to pressure decline in aquifers. A Galerkin finite element model based on these equations was developed. The saturated/unsaturated behaviour and the isotropic/anisotropic properties of permeability and elasticity were considered when the model was formulated. This model was verified by comparing its simulation results with those of known analytical solutions for simplified cases. The simulation of displacements due to pressure decline in unsaturated media was also performed. Those results demonstrated that the choice of boundary ranges for an aquifer with infinite domain may significantly affect the estimated horizontal and vertical displacements. To obtain a good estimation of land displacements, the boundary ranges should be carefully chosen. The displacements occurring in unconfined aquifers are caused by the drop of the water table and the change in body force in the dewatering zone. Simulation results also indicated that the change in body force should be considered once an unconfined aquifer has been pumped. Otherwise, the horizontal and vertical displacements in unconfined aquifers would be overestimated and underestimated, respectively. The behaviour of land displacements due to pumping was shown to be affected by changes in the total stresses in aquifers.