Summary findings of the fourth international radiocarbon intercomparison (FIRI)(1998–2001)

Interlaboratory comparisons have been widely used in applied radiocarbon science. These are an important part of ongoing quality assurance (QA) programmes, which are vital to the appropriate interpretation of the evidence provided by the ¹⁴C record in Quaternary applications (including climate change and environmental reconstruction). International comparisons of laboratory performance are an essential component of the quality assurance process in radiocarbon dating. If the user community is to have confidence in radiocarbon results, it needs to be assured that laboratories world wide are producing measurements that are reliable and in accordance with ‘good practice’. The findings from the most recent (completed in 2001) and extensive (more than 90 participating laboratories) radiocarbon intercomparison (FIRI) are reported here. This study was designed (i) to assess comparability, or otherwise, of the results from different laboratories and (ii) to quantify the extent and possible causes of any interlaboratory variation. The results demonstrate that there are no significant differences amongst the main measurement techniques (gas proportional counting, liquid scintillation counting and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)) but there is evidence of small laboratory offsets relative to known age samples for some laboratories. There is also evidence in some cases of underestimation of measurement precision. Approximately 10% of all results were classified as extreme (outliers) and these results were generated by 14% of the laboratories. Overall, the evidence supports the fact that radiocarbon laboratories are generally accurate and precise but that, notwithstanding internal QA procedures, some problems still occur, which can best be detected by participation in independent intercomparisons such as FIRI, where the results allow individual laboratories to assess their performance and to take remedial measures where necessary. The results from FIRI are significant in that they show a broad measure of agreement between measurements made in different laboratories on a wide range of materials and they also demonstrate no statistically significant difference between measurements made by radiometric or AMS techniques. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intercomparison of three South China Sea circulation models

1IntroductionTheSouthChinaSeaisthelargesttropicalmarginaldeepsealocatingbetweenthewesternPacificOceanandtheeasternIndianOcean.AsapartofAsia-Australiamaritimecontinent,monsoonisaprimaryfactorforcingtheSouthChinaSeaCurrent(SCSC)variation.Drivenbynortheasterlymonsooninwinterandsouth-westerlymonsooninsummer,respectively,theSCSCbehavesacyclonicgyreandananticy-clonicgyre,correspondingly(Wyrtki,1961;Xuetal.,1982).Owingtotheshortageandexpen-sivenessofdirectobservationsintheSCS,fur-therunder…     

Spatial and temporal intercomparison of four global burned area products

We characterize the agreement and disagreement of four publically available burned products (Fire CCI, Copernicus Burnt Area, MODIS MCD45A1, and MODIS MCD64A1) at a finer spatial and temporal scale than previous assessments using a grid of three-dimensional cells defined both in space and in time. Our analysis, conducted using seven years of data (2005–2011), shows that estimates of burned area vary greatly between products in terms of total area burned, the location of burning, and the timing of the burning. We use regional and monthly units for analysis to provide insight into the variation between products that can be lost when considering products yearly and/or globally. Comparison with independent, contemporaneous MODIS active fire observations provides one indication of which products most reasonably capture the burning regime. Our results have implications for the use of global burned area products in fire ecology, management and emissions applications.     

国产HS02型湿敏电容湿度传感器性能分析

采取同球比对施放方式,选择瑞士SNOWWHITE露点式湿度探空仪作为比对标准,使用29次同球比对数据,分白天与夜间,利用随高度变化、温度分段,以及高度、温度与湿度综合分段3种方法,对大桥HS02型湿度传感器进行评估。结果表明:(1)与国外先进湿度测量仪器相比,大桥HS02型湿度传感器在准确性与稳定性方面还存在一定差距,特别表现在低温性能方面;(2)除了白天20℃以上与-30℃以下温度段大桥HS02型湿度探测偏干外,其他均呈偏湿状态,夜间所有湿度段均呈偏湿状态;(3)大桥HS02型湿度探测基本上呈现中间湿度段随机误差偏大,而两端逐渐减小的趋势,近似于">"字型变化。     

Multi‐model ensemble prediction of terrestrial evapotranspiration across north China using Bayesian model averaging

Using high‐quality dataset from 12 flux towers in north China, the performance of four evapotranspiration (ET) models and the multi‐model ensemble approaches including the simple averaging (SA) and Bayesian model average (BMA) were systematically evaluated in this study. The four models were the single‐layer Penman–Monteith (P–M) model, the two‐layer Shuttleworthe–Wallace (S–W) model, the advection–aridity (A–A) model, and a modified Priestley–Taylor (PT‐JPL). Based on the mean value of Taylor skill (S) and the regression slope between measured and simulated ET values across all sites, the order of overall performance of the individual models from the best to the worst were: S–W (0.88, 0.87), PT‐JPL (0.80, 1.17), P–M (0.63, 1.73) and A–A (0.60, 1.68) [statistics stated as (Taylor skill, regression slope)]. Here, all models used the same values of parameters, LAI and fractional vegetation cover as well as the forcing meteorological data. Thus, the differences in model performance were mainly attributed to errors in model structure. To the ensemble approach, the BMA method has the advantage of generating more skillful and reliable predictions than the SA scheme. However, successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of its parameters, and some degradation in performance were observed when the BMA parameters generated from the training period were used for the validation period. Thus, it is necessary to explore the seasonal variations of the BMA parameters according the different growth stages. Finally, the optimal conditional density function of half‐hourly ET approximated well by the double‐exponential distribution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intercomparison of the JULES and CABLE land surface models through assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture in southeast Australia

Numerous land surface models exist for predicting water and energy fluxes in the terrestrial environment. These land surface models have different conceptualizations (i.e., process or physics based), together with structural differences in representing spatial variability, alternate empirical methods, mathematical formulations and computational approach. These inherent differences in modeling approach, and associated variations in outputs make it difficult to compare and contrast land surface models in a straight-forward manner. While model intercomparison studies have been undertaken in the past, leading to significant progress on the improvement of land surface models, additional framework towards identification of model weakness is needed. Given that land surface models are increasingly being integrated with satellite based estimates to improve their prediction skill, it is practical to undertake model intercomparison on the basis of soil moisture data assimilation. Consequently, this study compares two land surface models: the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) for soil moisture estimation and associated assessment of model uncertainty. A retrieved soil moisture data set from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission was assimilated into both models, with their updated estimates validated against in-situ soil moisture in the Yanco area, Australia. The findings show that the updated estimates from both models generally provided a more accurate estimate of soil moisture than the open loop estimate based on calibration alone. Moreover, the JULES output was found to provide a slightly better estimate of soil moisture than the CABLE output at both near-surface and deeper soil layers. An assessment of the updated membership in decision space also showed that the JULES model had a relatively stable, less sensitive, and more highly convergent internal dynamics than the CABLE model.     

西风带和南亚季风对三江源雨季水汽输送及降水的影响

为了进一步明确西风带和南亚季风对三江源流域的水汽输送作用及对流域降水的影响,利用ERA-20C再分析数据集对三江源流域1948-2010年雨季水汽通量场进行经验正交函数（Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF）分解,得到可表征西风带和南亚季风水汽输送在三江源流域强弱关系的经验正交函数模态及指标,揭示当西风带和南亚季风分别控制流域时的水汽输送和降水分布规律。结果表明:西风带控制流域水汽输送时,流域内部水汽输送方向为由西北向东南,西风带和南亚季风在流域南边界附近汇集,流域东部及南部（澜沧江源区大部,黄河源区东部）降水显著增加;南亚季风控制流域水汽输送时,流域内部水汽输送方向为由南向北,两支水汽输送路径在流域以北汇集,流域北部（长江源区大部,黄河源区偏北部）降水显著增加。西风带和南亚季风的水汽输送均对三江源流域具有重要作用,两支水汽输送路径分别控制流域时可引起流域内部不同区域降水的显著增加。     

气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估

以北江飞来峡水库上游为研究对象,构建了网格分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型,应用CMIP5多模式输出的降尺度结果与VIC模型耦合,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来时期(2020-2050年)飞来峡水库的入库洪水进行预估,并根据IPCC第5次评估报告处理和表达不确定性的方法来描述预估结论的可信度。结果表明,2020-2050年飞来峡水库年最大洪峰流量和年最大7日、15日洪量在RCP2.6情景下"大约可能"呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下"较为可能"呈增加趋势,水库防洪安全风险增大。与历史时期(1970-2000年)相比,未来水库极端入库洪水增加的可能性从大到小依次为RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景,其中设计洪水100年、50年和20年一遇的洪峰流量在3种排放情景下均呈上升趋势,100年、50年和20年一遇的最大7日、15日洪量在RCP4.5情景下以上升为主,而在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下则主要呈减少态势。     

How the future of the global forest sink depends on timber demand,forest management,and carbon policies

Deforestation has contributed significantly to net greenhouse gas emissions, but slowing deforestation, regrowing forests and other ecosystem processes have made forests a net sink. Deforestation will still influence future carbon fluxes, but the role of forest growth through aging, management, and other silvicultural inputs on future carbon fluxes are critically important but not always recognized by bookkeeping and integrated assessment models. When projecting the future, it is vital to capture how management processes affect carbon storage in ecosystems and wood products. This study uses multiple global forest sector models to project forest carbon impacts across 81 shared socioeconomic (SSP) and climate mitigation pathway scenarios. We illustrate the importance of modeling management decisions in existing forests in response to changing demands for land resources, wood products and carbon. Although the models vary in key attributes, there is general agreement across a majority of scenarios that the global forest sector could remain a carbon sink in the future, sequestering 1.2–5.8 GtCO2e/yr over the next century. Carbon fluxes in the baseline scenarios that exclude climate mitigation policy ranged from −0.8 to 4.9 GtCO2e/yr, highlighting the strong influence of SSPs on forest sector model estimates. Improved forest management can jointly increase carbon stocks and harvests without expanding forest area, suggesting that carbon fluxes from managed forests systems deserve more careful consideration by the climate policy community.     

Changes in low and high flows in the Vistula and the Odra basins: Model projections in the European‐scale context

A number of extensive droughts and destructive floods have occurred in Poland in the last 25 years; hence, projections of low and high river flows are of considerable interest and importance. In the first part of this paper, projections of low and high flows in the rivers of the Vistula and the Odra basins (VOB region), for two future time horizons, are presented. Projections are based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model simulations driven by results of the EURO‐CORDEX experiment under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The VOB region covers most of Poland and parts of five neighboring countries, giving this study an international relevance. In the second part of the paper, a review of projections of low and high flows in rivers in Central and Eastern Europe is presented. Despite a substantial spread of flow projections, the main message of the modelling part is that increases of both low and high flows are dominating. The magnitude of increase of low flow is considerably higher than that of high flow. In other words, future streamflow droughts are projected to be less severe, whereas, in contrast, river floods are projected to increase, which is a challenge for flood risk reduction, water management, and climate change adaptation. There is an overall agreement of our findings for the VOB region with projections of hydrological extremes from large‐scale models forced by EURO‐CORDEX results in the European‐scale studies.