Pyroclastic Flow Hazard at Volcán Citlaltépetl

Volcán Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) with an elevation of 5,675 m is the highest volcano in North America. Its most recent catastrophic events involved the production of pyroclastic flows that erupted approximately 4,000, 8,500, and 13,000 years ago. The distribution of mapped deposits from these eruptions gives an approximate guide to the extent of products from potential future eruptions. Because the topography of this volcano is constantly changing computer simulations were made on the present topography using three computer algorithms: energy cone, FLOW2D, and FLOW3D. The Heim Coefficient (), used as a code parameter for frictional sliding in all our algorithms, is the ratio of the assumed drop in elevation (H) divided by the lateral extent of the mapped deposits (L). The viscosity parameter for the FLOW2D and FLOW3D codes was adjusted so that the paths of the flows mimicked those inferred from the mapped deposits. We modeled two categories of pyroclastic flows modeled for the level I and level II events. Level I pyroclastic flows correspond to small but more frequent block-and-ash flows that remain on the main cone. Level II flows correspond to more widespread flows from catastrophic eruptions with an approximate 4,000-year repose period. We developed hazard maps from simulations based on a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) DTED-1 DEM with a 90 m grid and a vertical accuracy of ±30 m. Because realistic visualization is an important aid to understanding the risks related to volcanic hazards we present the DEM as modeled by FLOW3D. The model shows that the pyroclastic flows extend for much greater distances to the east of the volcano summit where the topographic relief is nearly 4,300 m. This study was used to plot hazard zones for pyroclastic flows in the official hazard map that was published recently.     

大跨径高桥墩垂直度观测方法和精度分析

介绍了高桥墩的垂直度观测方法和精度分析,推导出一系列实用公式,观测方法简单,结果精确可靠。利用这种方法能快速有效地判断出桥墩的倾斜量,及时采取相应调整措施,以保证桥墩的垂直性。     

植被发育斜坡非饱和带大孔隙

在气候温湿的滑坡灾害易发区,根系通道、动物通道、干裂缝、管道及团聚体间的结构性孔隙等大孔隙普遍存在于斜坡非饱和带中.采用微观观察、化学分析和现场试验方法并结合相关学科的研究成果,分析大孔隙界定、大孔隙类型和主控因素、大孔隙三维空间结构及大孔隙时效稳定.不同测量方法的差异和大孔隙密度时空变异性是目前大孔隙定义缺乏统一性的原因.大孔隙尺寸不能作为唯一标准界定大孔隙,必须考虑其三维几何形态.多因素控制大孔隙的成因和类型,其中根系通道、裂缝和结构性孔隙对优先流有显著贡献.需从三维几何学和拓扑学方面进一步研究大孔隙三维结构.枯枝落叶层是大孔隙抵御环境因素扰动的重要屏障,但大孔隙域与周围基质域水量交换对大孔隙时效稳定是不利的.深入研究以上问题对植被发育斜坡优先流模型的改进和发展是重要的.     

Demographic Transition: Threat to Developing Nations

Abstract

As computers become commonplace in the nation's schools, interactive maps are finding their way into the geography classroom. Students can use electronic atlases to access information as well as use authoring software to produce their own interactive maps. Does this change in media correspond to better geography education for our children? This article addresses whether using interactive maps for gathering and presenting information can have a positive influence on learning geography content. A two-week experiment was conducted in five 7th grade classrooms. Students in four of the classes researched and produced map products using both traditional and computer-assisted techniques. The fifth class was a control group. A pretest and two post-tests were given to quantitatively assess student learning after each project. Also, students were given a qualitative questionnaire to determine their attitude towards the different techniques. Quantitative results of the study indicate that there was no significant difference in student post-test performance after using each of the techniques, but qualitative results suggest that students prefer using the computer techniques over the traditional methods for gathering and presenting information.     

外部利润、产权界定与土地资源优化配置——成都市农村土地股份合作制改革的制度经济学解析

以"外部利润——产权界定——资源优化配置"为研究主线,对成都市农村土地股份合作制改革进行了制度经济学解析。研究发现,制度创新空间的形成、土地的增值收益、土地规模利用效应和土地集约利用效应构成了成都市农村土地股份合作制改革的外部利润。成都市农村土地股份合作制改革,一方面可以提高土地规模和集约利用效应,促进土地资源优化配置;另一方面可以明晰集体土地产权主体,健全基层组织治理机制。要采取诸如放松法律限制、加强理论研究、规范机制建设等措施,从而推动土地股份合作制的生成和发展。     

Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China

Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process.     

基于交互式分割技术和决策级融合的SAR图像变化检测

为免去去除斑点噪声的预处理操作及克服选择分布模型的限制,本文结合差异图的特点和一种不涉及分布模型的交互式分割方法,产生不同“种子点”下的变化检测结果后,再利用投票策略对其进行决策级的融合给出最终的变化检测结果。分割中,将每个像素的特征设为差异图及由静态小波变换分解差异图再丢弃高频系数后重构得到的各层表示中,其对应位置上的灰度值构成的矢量。此特征及决策级融合的策略使本文的变化检测技术对SAR图像中的斑点噪声具有一定的鲁棒性。在无需对SAR图像做预处理的情况下,对真实SAR图像数据集的变化检测结果,其效果优于其他相关技术的。     

“摄影与航空摄影”课程互动式教学模式的研究

互动式教学模式以培养学生学习的自主意识和创新能力为目标,既发挥教师的主导作用,又充分体现学生的认知主体作用。摄影与航空摄影是遥感科学与技术专业的专业基础课程,本文提出了针对该课程的互动式教学模式,并进行了课堂教学实践,总结了该模式的创新点和应用价值。     

华南前汛期降水开始和结束日期确定方法综述

对目前有关前汛期开始和结束日期的研究工作进行了总结.提出应参照梅雨期和季风降水等有关日期划分问题的方法,使用比月平均资料更高精度的逐日(候)资料,选择能够表征华南前汛期降水特征的适宜区域和代表站点,综合考虑降水、环流及其它物理要素在前汛期开始和结束前、后的演变特征,从而客观、准确地划定各年前汛期的起始和结束日期,以用于华南前汛期问题的研究.     

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查研究进展及标准修订

基于静止卫星红外云图的MCS普查标准不统一不利于各种MCS普查结果的对比分析, 该文在总结MCS普查研究进展的基础上, 依据Orlanski尺度分类标准对MβCS普查的最小尺度标准作了修订, 即修订为TBB≤-32 ℃的连续冷云区直径≥20 km。根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准和该文修订的MβCS普查标准, 利用GOES-9卫星红外云图普查了2003年6月19日—7月22日淮河大水期间的MCS, 结果发现共有10个MαCS和24个MβCS, 并对24个MβCS作了普查标准修订前后的统计结果对比, 发现新的普查标准比根据马禹等的MβCS普查标准获得的结果多7个MβCS, 并且这7个MβCS中有6个都引起强降水, 因此这种对比分析结果表明:新MβCS普查标准对揭示淮河大水和MCS的关系更具合理性。此外, 还分析了3个因MβCS而引起局地强降水的典型个例, 这些MβCS的直径尺度只有几十至一百多公里, 不符合马禹等的MβCS普查标准。对这3个MβCS分析结果表明:该文新MβCS普查标准有助于对产生剧烈天气的MCS的普查研究和预报。