基于BP神经网络的薄互层储层预测

根据地震属性来进行储层预测的研究,对于寻找油气具有十分重要的意义。而由于地下地质情况千变万化,不确定的因素太多,对这种多自变量与因变量的复杂关系模拟问题,神经网络技术是目前较成熟、实际应用效果也较好的方法之一。用BP神经网络来预测薄互层储层厚度,它可以建立属性参数与预测目标之间的高度非线性映射,并应用于具体的实例,为薄互层储层预测提供了新的思路。     

强造斜致绳索取心钻具折断分析

在定向钻探固体矿产领域,通常在造斜段使用螺杆钻具,大部分的工作量采用取心回转钻进。造斜段使用螺杆钻具,钻杆不回转,受力较简单;如遇强造斜转换绳索取心钻具稳斜钻进,下部钻具组合容易出现回转困难、下不到底的技术难题,甚至出现丝扣折断事故。为避免强造斜对绳索取心钻具的影响,本文通过建立强造斜段对绳索取心钻具的几何约束变形模型,量化分析强造斜段岩心外管长度与造斜强度、环空间隙之间的约束关系,提供了可快速预判下部钻具参数能否满足强造斜安全钻进的方法。该方法在山东某铁矿定向孔的强造斜致下部钻具折断的事故处理中,通过对绳索取心钻具安全计算模型校核和调整钻具参数,实现了绳索取心钻具通过造斜率0.62°/m的强造斜段安全钻进至靶点,证明对强造斜绳索取心工具安全钻进预测和事故处理计算具有指导意义。     

基于不等式约束的三维电阻率探测混合反演方法

三维电阻率探测的线性反演和非线性反演中均存在着多解性的固有难题.电阻率线性反演方法的效率较高,但反演结果对初始模型的依赖性较强,易陷入局部极小;而非线性反演方法不依赖初始模型,但搜索效率极低,尚未见到关于三维电阻率非线性反演的文献.针对上述问题,融合线性与非线性反演方法的互补优势,提出了最小二乘法（线性方法）与改进遗传算法（非线性方法）相结合的混合反演方法的概念和思想.首先,提出了将介质电阻率变化范围作为不等式约束引入反演方程的思路,以实现压制多解性、提高可靠性的目标.提出了宽松不等式约束和基于钻孔推断的局部严格不等式约束的获取及定义方法.在此基础上,分别提出了基于不等式约束的最小二乘线性反演方法和遗传算法非线性反演方法.其次,对于遗传算法在变异搜索方向控制、初始群体产生等方面进行了改进,优化了其搜索方向和初始群体多样性.然后,提出了混合反演方法及其实现方案,利用改进遗传算法进行第一阶段反演,发挥其对初始模型的依赖程度低的优势,搜索到最优解附近的空间,输出当前最优个体;利用最小二乘法进行第二阶段反演,将遗传算法得到的当前最优个体作为初始模型,在最优解附近空间执行高效率的局部线性搜索,最终实现地电结构的三维成像.最后,开展了合成数据与实际工程算例验证,与传统最小二乘方法进行了对比,发现混合反演方法在压制多解性、摆脱初始模型依赖和提高反演效果方面有较好效果.

     

GNSS多天线基线网单历元模糊度同步解算法

提出多天线基线网单历元模糊度同步解算法,其具体实现步骤为:1)根据宽巷组合模糊度易于固定的优点,采用附加已知基线长度约束法同步解算各基线的宽巷模糊度,得到dm～cm级精度的近似基线分量;2)将解算得到的各近似基线分量作为约束,同步解算各基线的基频模糊度,以获取mm级精度的基线矢量。该方法的关键在于检验各历元宽巷模糊度解算的正确性,以获取可靠的近似基线分量,为解算各基线的基频模糊度提供准确的基线先验信息。由于动态情况下各历元观测信息比较少,单纯依赖ratio检验不可靠,提出结合基线误差、单位权中误差、基线网模糊度闭合环及ratio值等对多组宽巷模糊度进行检验,避免ratio值设置不当导致模糊度检验中发生纳伪和弃真问题。实测数据结果证明,该处理方法使得模糊度解算的成功率提高1%～2%,可以获取移动平台更丰富的导航信息,提高其服务能力。     

对欧拉矢量附加不等式约束的RELSM模型及其应用

借鉴选权拟合思想,对区域地壳运动的整体旋转和线性应变模型中欧拉矢量部分附加不等式约束,将区域地壳运动的欧拉参数约束到由多年观测资料确定的平均欧拉参数值附近,建立附有不等式约束的整体旋转和线性应变模型。对中国大陆构造环境监测网络在环渤海区域的近几期GPS观测速度场数据进行拟合分析,结果表明,本文方法通过不等式约束可适当增强块体整体运动趋势的平滑性,获得对速度场更高的拟合精度,可进一步增强模型的物理解释能力。     

Coping with water scarcity in Kashafroud G-WADI Basin,Iran: climate change or growing demands?

This paper assesses the various factors contributing to climate change in the region of the Kashafroud G-WADI Basin in Iran; quantifies the local impacts of climate change, especially local water scarcity; and simulates and discusses several proposed methods to combat these impacts. Hydrologic and climatic data are statistically analyzed and VENSIM modeling is used for various simulations of water resources in the basin. Results show that the natural climate changes affecting Kashafroud Basin include increased temperature, less rainfall, more frequent droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns, all of which are local symptoms of climate change in recent years. However, the most important challenge in the basin is the overexploitation of surface and groundwater resources to meet the growing water demands, especially domestic needs. Changes in land use, reallocation of water uses, groundwater depletion, and degradation of the quality of surface waters have all contributed to significant changes in the environmental features of this basin, and are the main reason why water demands now exceed the renewal capacity of the basin. Proposed response measures include reallocation of resources among different uses, inter-basin water transfers, drawing water from six small dams on the Kashafroud River, reducing groundwater extraction, and replacing groundwater extraction for agriculture by reuse of urban wastewater. This study concludes that although changes in global climatic parameters have altered environmental features in the basin, local factors, such as water utilization beyond the renewable capacity of the basin, are more significant in worsening the impacts of climate change.     

Impact of an inter‐basin water transfer and reservoir operation on a karst open streamflow hydrological regime: an example from the Dinaric karst (Croatia)

This paper describes the hydrological changes caused by inter‐basin water transfer and the reservoir development on the hydrological regimes of two rivers. The Sabljaki Reservoir in the Zagorska Mre?nica River and the Bukovik Reservoir in the upper Dobra River began operation in 1959. Both are part of the hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) Gojak, whose installed capacity is 50 m³/s. Their water volumes at the spillway altitudes of 320·10 and 320·15 m a. s. l. are 3·3 × 10⁶ and 0·24 × 10⁶ m³ respectively. Both the Dobra and Mre?nica Rivers are losing, sinking and underground karst rivers. A 9376‐m‐long tunnel provides water from the Sabljaki Reservoir to the HEPP Gojak, which was constructed in the Lower Dobra River. The Sabljaki Reservoir is located in the Pla?ki karst polje, while the Bukovik Reservoir is located in the neighbouring Ogulin karst polje. The consequences of the inter‐basin water transfer are strong and have caused abrupt changes in the hydrological regimes of the downstream sections of both rivers. At the same time, the construction and development of both the reservoirs have also caused hydrological changes to the upstream section of the Upper Dobra River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种附约束的单频单历元GPS双差相位解算方法

在各类变形观测中，存在着2次观测的变形值不大及各种变形方向和大小可以比较精确预测等特点，可以把这些特征作为约束条件，对GPS单历元相位观测方程进行求解。基于以上几点，提出了一种含约束条件的单频单历元GPS相位求解算法和简单实用的模糊度搜索方法，本方法据观测值直接估计模糊度参数，并根据求出的模糊度估值进行搜索，还分析了最优解的获得和检验方法，最后用2个实例说明了该法的有效性和实用性。     

方差-协方差分量估计公式等价性的进一步证明

通过附有条件的间接平差模型进一步证明各类方差-协方差分量估计公式之间的等价性。