Spatial risk assessment of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan: integrating environmental and socio-economic drivers

ABSTRACT

Recently the cultivation of opium poppy in Afghanistan reached unprecedented levels. It is agreed that the complex and coupled interactions of social, economic and environmental drivers are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. In this context, we present an integrated risk concept, which considers environmental and socio-economic drivers of opium poppy cultivation. A set of spatially explicit indicators for the environmental suitability and socio-economic vulnerability was established and populated from a variety of databases. Subsequently, novel methods of modelling homogeneous and spatially explicit regions of opium poppy cultivation suitability, socio-economic vulnerability and risk are developed and applied. The risk assessment results demonstrate the complex nature of the illicit crops production in Afghanistan and prompt a more profound examination of the drivers of opium poppy cultivation in a spatial context. The study also confirms what has already been widely discussed in literature: that reasons for cultivation are spatially diverse and often distinct, meaning that any formulation of generalized explanations cannot be drawn without ignoring a more complex reality. Thus, an integrative spatial view of risk, which integrates the social dimension as well as environmental parameters, is required to better identify context-specific intervention measures.     

基于星载GPS数据的GRACE卫星动力学法定轨

利用GRACEA卫星的星载GPS观测数据,采用非差动力学低轨卫星定轨方法,解算了2012年1月11日至18日的卫星轨道,将得到的结果与GFZ发布的RSO轨道进行对比分析,并通过SLR观测数据进行轨道的校验。结果表明：定轨精度满足低轨卫星精密定轨的要求,与RSO轨道比较,在X、Y、Z方向的均方根误差的平均值分别为4．7cm、4．3cm和4．9cm;通过SLR观测数据进行校验,残差平均值为-1．6cm,均方根误差为4．7cm．     

GPS/GLONASS卫星导航系统组合定位的定权方法研究

正确合理地确定观测值的权是GPS/GLONASS导航系统组合定位中的一个关键技术问题。本文对GPS/GLONASS导航系统组合定位中几种常用的定权方法进行了比较分析,并以GPS/GLONASS的实测数据为例进行了实验,结果表明:在GPS/GLONASS导航系统组合定位中等精度定权的定位结果精度较差,卫星高度角定权和误差分布律概率密度函数定权后的定位结果精度相当,但较等精度定权法的定位精度都有所提高,赫尔默特方差分量估计法定权的定位结果精度最优。     

综合滤波InSAR干涉图去噪实验分析

本文在分析均值滤波、圆周均值滤波、中值滤波、自适应中值滤波、二维自适应滤波和不规则窗口自适应中值滤波方法对模拟数据干涉图纹图进行滤波去噪处理的效果的基础上,引入综合滤波去噪方法,使用该滤波去除方法对真实数据InSAR干涉图进行滤波去噪处理,并对结果从定性和定量两个方面进行分析讨论。实验结果分析表明,InSAR干涉图综合滤波去噪方法是有效和可行的。     

Application of the RPC model for spaceborne SAR image geometric processing

An increasing number of low, medium, and high resolution SAR satellites creates a demand for a generalized sensor model to replace the rigorous sensor model (RSM). The rational polynomial coefficient (RPC) model is a generic sensor model which accurately fits the object-image geometry for various sensor systems with different coefficient values. It has been widely used as an alternative to RSM for photogrammetric processing of optical images, but its applications to SAR images are rarely discussed in publications. In this paper, the feasibility and practicability of the RPC model for SAR images are studied. The RPC model can not only be used to replace the RSM (range–Doppler model for SAR), but also applied to the processing chain for SAR data, thus facilitating the processing of SAR and InSAR data for end users.     

“黄秉维先生百年诞辰学术思想研讨会”专家谈

黄秉维先生是国际著名地理学家,中国现代地理学的重要开拓者,1955年当选为中国科学院首批学部委员(院士),他长期担任原中国科学院地理研究所所长、中国地理学会理事长。2013年2月是黄秉维先生诞辰100周年。为了纪念黄秉维先生对中国现代地理学发展做出的卓越贡献,弘扬他的学术思想和优良学风,服务地理学的创新与发展,3月29日,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所(简称地理资源所)和中国地理学会联合举办了"黄秉维先生学术思想研讨会"。来自国家自然科学基金委员会等有关部委,中国科学院院士工作局、资源环境科学与技术局、基建局等院内单位,全国有关地理研究院所、高等院校,中国科协系统等40家单位的领导、专家学者,黄秉维先生的亲属、著名科学家的亲属等共计200余人参加了会议。两院院士孙鸿烈、曾庆存、石玉林、刘昌明、李文华、童庆禧、郭应禄、郑度、孙九林、陆大道、秦大河、姚檀栋、陶澍、傅伯杰等先生参加了研讨会,黄秉维先生生前的同事、助手和学生李文彦、王恩涌、邓先瑞、孙惠南、杨桂山、柳林等先生也在会上发言。会前,地理资源所和中国地理学会组织编辑出版了《黄秉维先生诞辰100年纪念文集》,编辑制作了《行所当然而不惑于偶然——纪念黄秉维先生诞辰100周年》纪录片,在《地理学报》、《地理研究》杂志发表了回顾、纪念性文章。除另行发表的若干学术报告外,现根据录音,将部分专家、学者的发言整理发表,以飨读者。     

Time-series analysis of monthly rainfall data for the Mahanadi River Basin, India

Time series analysis has two goals, modeling random mechanisms and predicting future series using historical data. In the present work, a uni-variate time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been developed for (a) simulating and forecasting mean rainfall, obtained using Theissen weights; over the Mahanadi River Basin in India, and (b) simulating and forecasting mean rainfall at 38 rain-gauge stations in district towns across the basin. For the analysis, monthly rainfall data of each district town for the years 1901-2002 (102 years) were used. Theissen weights were obtained over the basin and mean monthly rainfall was estimated. The trend and seasonality observed in ACF and PACF plots of rainfall data were removed using power transformation (α=0.5) and first order seasonal differencing prior to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA model (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 developed here was found to be most suitable for simulating and forecasting mean rainfall over the Mahanadi River Basin and for all 38 district town rain-gauge stations, separately. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), goodness of fit (Chi-square), R 2 (coefficient of determination), MSE (mean square error) and MAE (mea absolute error) were used to test the validity and applicability of the developed ARIMA model at different stages. This model is considered appropriate to forecast the monthly rainfall for the upcoming 12 years in each district town to assist decision makers and policy makers establish priorities for water demand, storage, distribution, and disaster management.     

EROSION OF BANKS OF STORAGE RESERVOIRS IN POLAND

ABSTRACT

The abrasion of banks of certain storage reservoirs can have considerable importance. Cases are known where the shift of the bank line forecast to take place within a period of ten or fifteen years was exceeded during the first year of operation of the reservoir. However, transformation and erosion of banks in other reservoirs or other bank sections, although anticipated, either has not occurred, or, when it did, its intensity was much lower than expected. This is why the problem of transformation of the near-shore zone in reservoirs is attracting more and more attention from many scientific institutes.

The paper presents the subject, methods and results of research on the transformation and erosion of the reservoir banks. The main effort has been concentrated on trying to establish the relationships between geological-morphological and climatic-hydrological conditions. It has been stated that the dynamic potential of the reservoir is of decisive importance. This potential, depending on the morphometry of the reservoir and the meteorological conditions (mainly wind) exerts an influence on the reservoir shore line. Consequently, the erosive-accumulation processes become interrelated, resulting in transformation of the bank zone and its adaptation to new conditions.     

矿田地质学的研究和发展问题

矿田系矿床密集分布、成矿作用集中发育的地质单元或区域,相当于成矿区划Ⅴ级成矿单元。研究近期提出"矿田地质学为矿田构造学、矿田建造学和矿田成矿学所构成的学科研究领域"的新概念;重点分析矿田地质找矿的基本思路-构造岩相界面是地质找矿的基础,构造地球化学界面是找矿预测的信息,构造物理化学界面是成矿规律的本质。本文近期提出"整装勘查区就是包含一个或几个矿田的成矿地质区段"的论证,为地质找矿突破探讨了新的思路。     

洛阳市龙门高温地热井的综合物探勘查

在洛阳龙门西山及洛阳盆地地热勘查中,应用音频大地电场AU测量、放射性α测量、激电测深等综合物探方法,成功确定了4眼隐伏断裂构造型热水井,其中温度最高达98.5℃,水量达96 m3/h.以玉隆苑高温地热井综合物探勘查为例,说明了物探方法在寻找地下隐伏断裂构造型热水中的作用初步探讨了高温地热井的成因.