地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。     

基于Low-rank分解的复杂TI介质纯qP波正演模拟与逆时偏移

近年来,面向实际应用的TI介质准P波正演模拟与逆时偏移成像技术受到空前的关注.基于常规耦合型传播方程的正演模拟方法不仅存在伪横波及频散假象干扰,而且还遭受模型参数限制（η>0）和不稳定影响;而纯qP波方程的推导繁琐,且由于方程中包含拟微分算子造成求解难度大且精度有限.为此,本文首先构建了一种适用于任意TI介质的纯qP波传播算子,然后借助Low-rank分解求取该算子中的空间-波数域矩阵,同时引入Cerjan衰减边界条件来压制边界反射干扰,最终实现了一种间接的纯qP波波场外推方案,并将其成功应用于复杂TI介质正演模拟与逆时偏移成像中.通过开展数值模拟,并与其他方法对比表明：①该方法既避免了纯qP波方程的繁琐推导,又克服了耦合型方程对模型参数的限制;②还彻底消除了残余伪横波噪音及数值频散;③且能适应较大时间或空间步长及高频震源,是一种相对准确且稳定的各向异性纵波正演与成像策略.

     

AMT静态效应和对导电薄层分辨能力的正演模拟

静态效应是AMT法在山区找水中不可回避的问题,第四系地下水勘查中人们有时更多关注隔水层黏土层的空间分布。针对这两个问题,利用二维有限单元数值模拟方法来讨论静态效应对TE、TM极化方式视电阻率曲线的影响以及对导电薄层的垂向分辨能力。研究表明：TM模式视电阻率受静态影响严重,TE模式视电阻率对深部地质体的反映优于TM模式;TM极化模式放大了横向上不同电性体的电性差别,在山区找水中对断层反映敏感;AMT对导电薄层的垂向分辨力与围岩的电阻率比值有关,加密点距,并不能提高垂向分辨率。     

基于BISQ模型双相各向同性介质中地震波数值模拟

基于BISQ机制,推导了双相各向同性介质中弹性波数值模拟方程,并借助交错网格有限差分方法进行了波场模拟。证实了三种波(快纵波、慢纵波、横波SV)的存在和波场特征;在合成地震记录中,观测列三种波的反射,由于各种波相互之间的转换,转换波在地震记录中显示也很清楚,这使得波场变得更为复杂化。     

应用低频信号提高高速玄武岩下的成像质量

针对高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像困难的实际问题,采用波动方程波场数值模拟技术,根据玄武岩地层的特点,设计三个相应的简单高速玄武岩模型,通过对深层反射地震信号能量的分析,说明了低频地震信号既具有较强的穿透薄高速玄武岩屏蔽层的能力,也具有减弱因粗糙表面所产生的绕射噪音的能力。一个完整的2D玄武岩模型的模拟试验证明了利用低频信号可以提高高速玄武岩屏蔽层下深层成像的质量,实际资料的低通滤波处理也取得了预期的效果。     

Finite difference modeling of contaminant transport using analytic element flow solutions

The two-dimensional implementation of the analytic element method (AEM) is commonly used to simulate steady-state saturated groundwater flow phenomena at regional and local scales. However, unlike alternative groundwater flow simulation methods, AEM results are not ordinarily used as the basis for simulation of reactive solute transport. The use of AEM-simulated flow fields is impeded by the discrepancy between a continuous representation of flow and a typically discrete representation of transport, and requires translation of the flow solution to a discrete analog. This paper presents a variety of methods for analytically calculating conservative discrete water fluxes and integrated components of the dispersion tensor across cell interfaces. An Eulerian finite difference method based on these AEM-derived parameters is implemented for use in simulation of 2D (vertically averaged) solute transport. This implementation is first benchmarked against existing methods that use standard finite difference flow solutions, then used to investigate the effects of an inaccurate discrete water balance. It is shown that improper translation of AEM fluxes leads to significant water balance errors and inaccurate simulation of contaminant transport.     

Using constrained inversion of gravity and magnetic field to produce a 3D litho‐prediction model

Geologically constrained inversion of gravity and magnetic field data of the Victoria property (located in Sudbury, Canada) was undertaken in order to update the present three‐dimensional geological model. The initial and reference model was constructed based on geological information from over 950 drillholes to constrain the inversion. In addition, downhole density and magnetic susceptibility measured in six holes were statistically analysed to derive lower and upper bounds on the physical properties attributed to the lithological units in the reference model. Constrained inversion of the ground gravity and the airborne magnetic data collected at the Victoria property were performed using GRAV3D and MAG3D, respectively. A neural network was trained to predict lithological units from the physical properties measured in six holes. Then, the trained network was applied on the three‐dimensional distribution of physical properties derived from the inversion models to produce a three‐dimensional litho‐prediction model. Some of the features evident in the lithological model are remnants of the constraints, where the data did not demand a significant change in the model from the initial constraining model (e.g., the thin pair of diabase dykes). However, some important changes away from the initial model are evident; for example, a larger body was predicted for quartz diorite, which may be related to the prospective offset dykes; a new zone was predicted as sulfide, which may represent potential mineralisation; and a geophysical subcategory of metabasalt was identified with high magnetic susceptibility and high density. The litho‐prediction model agrees with the geological expectation for the three‐dimensional structure at Victoria and is consistent with the geophysical data, which results in a more holistic understanding of the subsurface lithology.     

A very large scale GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian sandstone aquifer in Eastern Sahara (Egypt,northern Sudan and eastern Libya)

A three-dimensional GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the eastern Sahara was developed and calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to climatic changes that occurred during the last 25,000 years. The simulation results indicated that the groundwater in this aquifer was formed by infiltration during the wet periods 20,000 and 5,000 years b.p. The recharge of groundwater due to regional groundwater flow from more humid areas in the south was excluded. It also indicates that the Nubian Aquifer System is a fossil aquifer, which had been in an unsteady state condition for the last 3,000 years.

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Resumen Fue desarrollado un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea en tres dimensiones, basado en un SIG, para el Acuífero Arenisca Nubian en el Sahara Oriental, el cual fue calibrado para condiciones de estado estacionario y transitorio. El modelo se usó para simular la respuesta del acuífero a los cambios climáticos que ocurrieron durante los últimos 25000 años. Los resultados de esta simulación indicaron que el agua subterránea en este acuífero, se formó por infiltración, durante los períodos húmedos que hubo hace 20000 y 5000 años, antes del presente. Fue excluida la recarga del acuífero debida a un flujo regional de agua subterránea proveniente de áreas con un clima más húmedo en el sur. El modelo también muestra, que el Sistema Acuífero Nubian es un acuífero fósil, el cual ha permanecido en una condición de estado no estacionario, durante los últimos tres mil años.

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Résumé Pour laquifère gréseux Nubien de Sahara -Est on a mis au points un modèle tridimensionnel, basé sur GIS. Le modèle a été calibré tant pour lécoulement stationnaire que pour lécoulement transitoire. On a simulé après la réponse de laquifère aux changements climatiques des derniers 25000 ans. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que la nappe a été rechargée par des infiltrations pendant une période humide qui sétend 5000 et 20000 ans, dès temps actuel. On na pas pris en compte la recharge de laquifère par la zone plus humide située dans sa partie sud. Le modèle indique aussi que leau de laquifère Nubien est une eau fossile qui a eu un écoulement transitoire pendant les derniers 3000 ans.

     

复杂断层网络环境下地下洞室群三维地质分析与应用

断层构造是制约地下工程设计与施工的关键因素。综合考虑复杂地质构造与地下洞室群结构的耦合关系,采用三维地质建模方法建立实现了地层体、断层体与地下洞室群结构的统一模型。基于三维模型提出了断层复杂度的概念,为水利水电工程地下厂房洞室群的选址方案分析提供了一种新的手段。针对地下围岩稳定性问题,提出基于断层与断层、断层与开挖面相互切割的曲面块体识别方法,搜索地下厂房洞室群内可能的失稳区域。上述方法已成功应用在某水电工程地下厂房洞室群分析中,在设计方案优化分析中取得了良好的效果。     

Health Risks and Environmental Inequity: A Geographical Analysis of Accidental Releases of Hazardous Materials

This study examines the spatial distribution and impact of nonroutine accidental releases of hazardous materials relative to the demographic composition of residents in nearby communities. First, atmospheric dispersion modeling methods are used to delineate the impact zones of worst‐case accidents in two New York counties over the last ten years. Next, using accidental reports for 1997, GIS and statistical operations are used at the census tract level of the two counties to determine whether these incidents disproportionately affected disadvantaged neighborhoods. The results suggest that the areas of high‐impact from accidental releases of hazardous materials are best characterized by a large proportion of families below the poverty line, Hispanics, and other minorities.