On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.     

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.     

Physics of basic motions in asymmetric continuum

We consider the advantages of a formalism based on concept of the asymmetric continuum and we present some equivalence theorems relating it to the asymmetric elasticity and to micropolar and micromorphic theories as founded by Nowacki, Cosserats and Eringen. We consider the basic processes in an asymmetric continuum which could be reduced to the point basic motions/deformations. The co-action of spin and shear motions is assumed to play the main role in fracturing process, while the constitutive relation between the antisymmetric stresses and rotations replaces the friction constitutive law.     

我国春玉米水分供需状况分析

论述了作物需水量的概念及其计算方法，利用最新的气候和作物资料，计算了我国春玉米的作物需水量，分析其时空分布特征，并利用水发订正系来评价春玉米需水量的满足程度。计算分析结果表明，气候条件对我国在玉米生产是有利的，但在播种期、出苗期及拔节期（4－6月份），存在明显的水亏缺现象，这一时期应采取相应的栽培技术及节水灌溉、人工增雨等措施来缓解旱情。     

淮南矿区潘三矿构造发育规律定量研究

本文采用煤层构造形态空间分析、断裂要素数理统计分析等方法,并引入断裂分形维数指标作为刻划断裂构造发育强度的指标之一,对准南矿区潘三矿地质构造进行了定性—定量分析,揭示了矿井地质构造发育的南北分带性和东西分区性特征。     

北疆冬季降水异常与前期环流特征的相关分析

用相关分析法计算了北疆冬季降水与前期各月北半球500hPa平均高度场的相关系数，选择相关好的域计算了北疆冬季降水异常年份对应的前期相关月的500hPa距平场，结果表明当年9月欧洲脊的强弱及新疆上空急锋锋区的位置与前冬降水异常有一定的相关，6月北欧-极区冷空气的强度及12月西西伯利亚脊的位置和强弱与后冬降水异常有一定的相关。     

濮阳市11月份寒潮天气预报

利用1965-1995年天气图和气象观测资料，分析了濮阳市11月份寒潮的时空分布特征、路径及天气形势，确定了预报指标。     

熵气象学是动力气象学

论证“熵气象学”就是应用热力学第二定律的动力气象,是不足是统计出来的规律，所以它是气象学的发展。     

安帮河污染程度及防治对策

工业废水和城市生活污水的大量排放,已使安帮河的水质恶化.水质监测结果表明,安帮河水为严得污染水,并已危害地下水水源地,而且还有进一步发展的趋势.因此文中指出,治理安帮河污染已是刻不容缓,否则双鸭山市将成为缺水城市.