Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.     

2011年10月12日北京市石景山区M_L2.1地震近场加速度记录初步分析

根据近场强震台加速度记录对2011年10月12日北京市石景山区ML2.1地震的加速度影响场进行了计算分析.同时使用了首都圈宽频带数字台站记录数据通过P波初动格点尝试法解算出该地震的震源机制解,并与加速度影响场进行对比研究.结果表明,此次地震加速度影响场水平向加速度高于垂直向;水平向峰值加速度分布区和加速度影响场高低速度过渡区总体呈EW向或NEE向分布,与震源机制解结果的两个节面走向较为一致;加速度衰减NS向快于EW向.本文研究结果可为强震或较大地震发生后快速判定震害影响场提供参考依据.     

发震构造呈复杂空间关系下相互影响发震的机理研究——以汶川地震为例

对发震构造呈复杂几何关系(发震构造在平面投影呈非平行关系)下彼此发震影响的机理进行了研究.从发震的“垂震底继”影响关系研究了1933年迭溪地震M7.5和1976年松潘Ms7.2地震对后来发生汶川M8地震的龙门山地震构造的孕震能量叠加的加震作用;同时也指出汶川8级地震对周边断裂的减震作用,计算并指出了其影响减震的距离.研究对CPSHA中对发震构造呈复杂几何关系时,如何确定地震带内各潜在的震源空间分布函数fi,mj提供了大震加减震的判断理论依据.还讨论了汶川地震孕震模式的更复杂性,针对某些用巴颜喀拉块体向东南方向移动挤压龙门山孕震构造,进而解释汶川地震的逆冲性所带来的矛盾的观点,对其孕震的复杂性提出了问题所在和初步探讨.     

Alpine Plant Communities: A Statistical Assessment of Their Relation to Microclimatological,Pedological, Geomorphological,and Other Factors

Floristic composition and environmental factors vary widely among plant communities in the alpine belt. Thus far no study has attempted to measure all relevant site conditions in a larger number of alpine communities. Here we show (1) which environmental factors were highly correlated with the floristic composition of the 14 plant communities investigated in the Swiss Alps and (2) which plant communities have similar environmental affinities. In every plant community investigated, the main factors potentially having an impact on plant life were measured and the floristic composition was defined. We used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) to determine linkage between plant communities and complex environmental gradients. The first axis of the NMDS corresponds to a climate gradient (temperature/wind speed), and the second axis corresponds to a soil gradient (soil suction/pH/Ca content). With the exception of the Nardus grassland and Carex curvula turf, plant communities belonging to the same phytosociological class are exposed to very similar combinations of environmental factors. Our study shows that the variation between phytosociological classes is much larger than within classes. Still, the variation of environmental factors within individual classes leads to a further differentiation of the floristic composition. Thus, our study reinforces the validity of the phytosociological classification.     

Graphically supported evaluation of mapping techniques used in presenting spatial accessibility

ABSTRACT

Given the rising availability of alternative ways of spatial data mapping, there is a growing need to study their usability. An important aspect here is the diversity of the cartographic visualizations that are used to draw conclusions about the usability of various mapping techniques. In our study we evaluated the usability of six various mapping techniques used in presenting spatial accessibility, taking into consideration four components: effectiveness and efficiency (objective criteria) and graphical attractiveness and user-perceived effectiveness (subjective criteria). Using Internet questionnaires, we conducted a graphical perception experiment with respondents performing tasks on a hypothetical monocentric road network model displayed using mapping techniques of spatial accessibility, differing in the applied parameters of graphical and non-graphical factors influencing effectiveness and efficiency. The results showed that non-graphical factors had a greater influence than the graphical factors. In total usability comparison the three-dimensional (3D) point technique was ranked the highest, while the worst result was achieved by the 3D area technique. The proposed graphical form of study results made it possible to compare the influence of various effectiveness factors, to analyze mapping techniques in terms of considered criteria and finally to present their total usability using a chart inspired by Uhorczak’s typogram.     

长江禁捕前江苏海域刀鲚(Coilia nasus)时空分布及环境因子的初步研究

为掌握江苏全海域刀鲚资源状况,为后期长江禁捕效果评估提供支撑资料, 2017年5月、8月、11月与2018年2月在江苏海域(31°45′~35°00′N, 119°30′~125°00′E)分别进行了4次渔业资源调查, 并绘制了尾数资源密度与重量资源密度分布图, 利用SPSS 26软件对当年的刀鲚资源状况进行评估, 积累长江禁渔前刀鲚鱼种系统数据。结果表明: (1) 刀鲚除秋季(11月)与冬季(2月)存在部分群体分布于“机轮拖网渔业禁渔区线”(以下简称“禁渔区线”)外侧之外, 其余时间均在江苏近岸海域(江苏境内“禁渔区线”到海岸线之间的水域)栖息洄游, 江苏近岸海域是刀鲚主要栖息索饵水域; (2) 春季(5月)影响江苏海域刀鲚分布的环境因子较多, 主要有水温、盐度、溶氧、深度、透明度等, 这可能与刀鲚正处于产卵旺期, 对环境因子变化敏感有关; 夏季(8月)影响江苏海域刀鲚分布的环境因子是透明度, 此时刀鲚刚结束产卵不久, 返回近海后急需补充能量, 丰富的营养物质成为影响其分布的主要因素, 此时为北半球夏季, 江苏省境内60余条入海河流正值汛期, 入海河水携带大量的营养物质, 成为返海刀鲚优良的索饵场; 秋季水温降低, 刀鲚开始越冬洄游, 水温成为影响刀鲚分布的重要因素; 冬季, 随着刀鲚性腺再次发育成熟, 新一轮的生殖洄游开始, 刀鲚栖息水层上升, 水深成为影响冬季刀鲚分布的关键因素; (3) 与长江禁捕后其他研究者在长江口收集到的刀鲚规格、全长-体重拟合方程综合对比, 发现自“长江十年禁捕”逐步实施后, 刀鲚种群渔获规格逐渐增大, 全长、体重开始逐渐增长, 长江刀鲚种群呈现资源恢复趋势。     

川西北马脑壳金矿床控矿因素及其成因意义

马脑壳金矿床位于中国重要的"川、甘、陕"成矿远景区的川西北地区,是川西北地区与构造蚀变带有关的微细浸染型金矿的典型代表。近年来深部勘查、外围找矿和矿山开采发现了许多与原有认识不一致的地质现象,特别是越往深部,构造控矿和热液流体活动的迹象明显增强。根据对矿床地质特征的进一步研究,分析了矿床控矿因素,总结了成矿规律,探讨了矿床成因,指出了进一步找矿的方向。认为马脑壳金矿床以构造控矿为主,构造破碎岩带是主要矿体赋存部位,构造变形程度控制着矿体的空间分布、产出形态和矿化富集程度。多组构造复合部位是重要的赋矿部位,虽然矿(化)体总体呈北西向展布,但北北东向构造、北西向以及南北向构造复合部位是寻找富大矿体的主要方向。矿床表现出的层控性特点,主要与不同物理化学性质岩层的岩石组合有关,能干性(渗透障)与非能干性(不渗透障)岩层的交互叠置和有序排列,导致所有金矿体都产于能干性和非能干性的转换部位,即砂岩、板岩的接触部位。马脑壳矿床的成矿与传统的卡林型金矿有较大的差异,构造—岩浆活动对成矿起了重要的控制作用,有深部流体参与成矿的迹象,属多因复式成矿特征的大型中低温热液金矿床。     

气候变化与人类活动对水文影响的研究进展

气候变化与人类活动对水文过程产生了重大影响,估计和区分二者的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。针对气候变化和人类活动(土地利用/覆盖变化)两个驱动因素,分别综述了气候变化、人类活动和两者综合对水文影响的研究进展;介绍了未来的气候情景和人类活动情景;阐述了区分气候变化和人类活动对水文要素过去和未来影响的研究方法,并总结了方法中常用的分布式水文模型。提出当前研究中存在气候和人类活动情景重复交叉、缺乏两者对水文极值事件的影响研究等问题。     

岩基载荷试验影响因素分析

在大型工程的岩土工程勘察中,如何确定岩石地基的承载力,直接影响到建筑的质量、造价和进度。载荷试验作为模拟建筑物基础受力条件的试验,科学、直观地提供了地基的承载力和变形模量,给设计部门提供了不可或缺的设计依据。然而,岩基载荷试验结果受基岩埋深及孔径的影响尚不清楚。利用ABAQUS有限元分析软件,对深层岩基载荷试验影响因素进行数值模拟分析,得出的结论可为今后岩土工程勘察提供借鉴。     

眉山市地质灾害发育分布特征及控制影响因素

眉山市地质灾害隐患数量多,分布广泛,险情较严重.地质灾害隐患点以滑坡、不稳定斜坡和崩塌为主.主要分在市境内的中山、低山和深丘等地质灾害高易发区和地质灾害中易发地区.发生时间多集中每年在6～9月的雨季高易发期.地质灾害发育分布主要受地形地貌、地质构造和岩性组合的控制,而降雨和人类不合理工程经济活动则是眉山市地质灾害发生的主要引发因素.