大同盆地砷中毒病区沉积物中砷的吸附行为和影响因素分析

沉积物对砷的吸附-解吸作用是控制砷在地下水中的迁移和转化的决定性因素。对砷中毒重病区大同盆地山胡县沉积物中砷的吸附行为和影响因素研究结果表明,沉积物对砷的吸附符合Freundlich吸附等温模式,吸附量主要与沉积物颗粒大小、黏土矿物质量分数和类型、铁铝氧化物质量分数以及沉积物中As的质量分数有关,有机质质量分数对砷的吸附量影响需进一步深入研究。铝硅酸盐、铁铝氧化物质量分数较高且颗粒较细的黏土和亚黏土类沉积物对砷的吸附性较强;而铝硅酸盐、铁铝氧化物质量分数较低且颗粒较粗的细砂和粉砂类沉积物对砷的吸附性较差,其所处的含水层也是形成高砷地下水的主要含水层。pH值为5．5～8．0时,砷的吸附量最大。大同盆地高砷地下水pH条件非常不利于沉积物中砷的吸附,易形成高砷地下水。该区地下水10℃左右的温度条件非常有利于沉积物对砷的吸附,但由于影响因素较多,且地下水的温度在不同季节会发生一定的变化,其产生的影响还有待进一步研究。     

北祁连西段镜铁山式铜矿预测要素及预测模型

在北祁连镜铁山地区,近年来发现了与中元古界条带状铁建造有关的破碎带蚀变岩型铜矿,如桦树沟铜矿床和柳沟峡铜矿床。分析了铜矿床的预测要素:矿源层为含铜条带状铁建造;有利于矿质活化的构造为透入性构造裂隙;热源为壳源岩浆活动;储矿构造为构造破碎蚀变带。建立了镜铁山式铜矿资源潜力预测的经验公式,对预测区铜远景资源潜力、铁矿石量、透入性构造裂隙发育程度和热源参数的取值分别进行探讨。据此公式估算,整个北祁连西段镜铁山式铜矿的铜金属资源潜力为147.3万t,其中镜铁山矿田铜资源潜力可达约125万t。实地考察也发现了新的找矿有利地段,因此有必要继续加大找矿力度。     

基于数值模拟和统计拟合分析华北冬季一次大范围重污染过程的形成机理

基于WRF/Chem（Weather Research Forecasting/Chemistry）模式对2015年11月25日至12月2日我国北方一次大范围PM2.5（空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5 μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物）重污染过程进行了模拟。与观测资料对比表明,模式能够较好地模拟出PM2.5浓度及气象因素的变化趋势,结果适用于此次污染事件的机理分析。动力、热力条件及化学转化等因素对此次强污染事件形成的机理分析表明,动力因子主要通过表面风和垂直风切变的减弱对此次污染事件造成影响,边界层逆温等热力因子促进了大气稳定性的增强,不利于污染物扩散。依据PM2.5组成成分变化分析可知,硝酸盐、硫酸盐和有机碳在此次事件中含量增加,说明机动车汽车尾气和燃煤排放所致的二次气溶胶生成对PM2.5污染加剧起重要贡献。多元线性回归分析和多因子相对贡献率量化解析结果表明,热力因子在此次污染过程中起主要作用,方差贡献率为52%,动力因子次之,方差贡献率为34%,而化学转化方差贡献率约为14%,说明气象条件,尤其是热力条件是引起此次污染事件的主要原因。     

Geography and Planning: Some Perspectives

This paper analyzes the migration of Puerto Rican-born women from the United States to Puerto Rico using longitudinal data. We hypothesize that sojourn length in the United States is a function of both structural (macro-level economic and cultural factors) and behavioral (micro-level life-cycle experiences and personal attributes) variables. We test these hypotheses by estimating a proportional hazards model. The parameter estimates of this model indicate that sojourn length in the United States, and thus the decision to return to Puerto Rico, is a function of wage trends and community characteristics on the mainland plus a number of individual attributes that include education, marriage, and childbirth.     

1977-2010年青海湖环湖区土地利用/覆盖变化与土地资源管理

青海湖流域是青海省主要牧场,也是青藏高原东北部重要的生态安全屏障.本文以1977、1987、2000、2004年和2010年遥感影像、MODIS NDVI为基础数据,通过数学模型、一元线性回归、景观格局指数的方法分析了青海湖环湖区土地利用/覆盖时空变化及景观格局特点,探讨了土地利用/覆盖变化的影响因素,最后提出青海湖环湖区土地资源管理建议.研究结果表明:近33年来青海湖环湖区土地利用/覆盖变化显著,草地、林地、水体等生态用地面积总体减少,耕地、建设用地、未利用地面积逐渐增加,土地利用/覆盖变化整体处于不平衡态,单向转换频繁;植被覆盖度总体微弱增加,变化趋势具有空间差异性;由于人类的定向选择,草地景观类型退化,景观格局趋向破碎化;土地利用/覆盖与景观格局变化是环湖区气温升高、降水增加、载畜量超载、旅游等因素共同作用的结果;基于土地利用/覆盖变化特点和影响因素,提出创建“生态友好”型土地资源管理模式,实现人地关系协调发展.     

A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

山岳型旅游目的地形象感知研究——以五台山风景名胜区为例

以山岳型旅游目的地五台山风景区为例,利用百度、Google以及国内各旅游网站收集游客记述五台山旅游形象的87篇网络游记和620条网上点评,运用质性研究之扎根理论的方法对五台山申遗后旅游形象的感知进行研究,以期为山岳型旅游目的地形象研究拓展方法和为其管理提供参考和依据.结果表明:1.从71篇网络游记和490条网络点评中提取出佛教胜地、静心拜佛、避暑胜地、建筑精湛、许愿还愿和朝台览胜6大积极感知因素;2.从226句负面评论中,归纳出五台山旅游形象的6个消极感知因素为旅游供给、旅游环境、旅游设施、旅游管理、旅游吸引和旅游服务;3.同时,典故传说、佛缘之地、民风淳朴亦为五台山旅游形象的积极感知因素.     

Evaluating the Temporal and Spatial Urban Expansion Patterns of Guangzhou from 1979 to 2003 by Remote Sensing and GIS Methods

China has experienced and is experiencing expeditious urban expansion in the recent decades, especially in the coastal areas and big cities. Rapid urban expansion and dramatic changes of landscape have caused great economic, environmental and social impacts consequently. It is crucial to understand urban temporal, spatial expansion patterns and their related effects. In this paper, urban expansion of Guangzhou, a rapid growing city in south‐east China, from 1979 to 2003 is studied temporally and spatially. Four time ranges including 1979–1990, 1990–1995, 1995–2000 and 2000–2003 are designed and the urban expansion area, expansion rate and the spatial expansion pattern are discussed by using remote sensing data and Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Two transects are designed along two axes of Guangzhou expansion and the structural of urban expansion patches at different orientations are compared in order to quantitively understand the urban expansion of Guangzhou during the past 24 years. The gradient analysis integrating multi‐temporal data is performed in order to analyze and compare the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion. Two indices of compactness and fractal dimensional index are used to describe the urban developing pattern in the study time durations. And the influence of different types of traffic roads to urban expansion is evaluated using the buffer analysis of GIS. The results show that: (1) temporally, urban area of Guangzhou increase 296.54 km² from 141.15 km² in 1979 to 437.70 km² in 2003 and the increasing rate is up to 210.08%; (2) spatially, Guangzhou has different urban expanding directions in different stages and the general expanding directions are towards northeast, north, southeast and north in four studied time ranges; (3) transportation lines play a very important role in urban expansion of Guangzhou, but different types of road have different impacts. National roads and highways exhibit stronger control to urban expansion than provincial roads; and (4) expansion of Guangzhou has gradually changed from a compact pattern to leapfrogging and disordering patterns.     

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.