Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

基于ALR的Hopfield神经网络在高程拟合中的应用

运用具有正规化项的增广拉格朗日函数作为神经网络的能量函数,辅助二次曲面拟合,进一步探索Hopfield神经网络在高程拟合中的应用。实际算例表明,该方法可以大大提高神经网络的计算效率和可靠性。     

广义Birkhoff方程的积分方法

场方法和最终乘子法是求解运动微分方程的基本方法. 本文将这两种方法应用于广义Birkhoff系统,求出了场方法的基本偏微分方程和该方程的完全积分; 根据Jacobi最终乘子定理求出了广义Birkhoff方程的解. 并举例说明结果的应用.     

中国的地区企业进入与退出关联研究

企业的进入退出存在显著的前后关联,关联机制可以分解为竞争效应与乘数效应。本文探讨了1998-2013年间中国制造业企业的空间格局演化过程,发现地级市尺度的企业动态存在明显的时空关联。16年间,企业动态空间格局发生了剧烈演变,逐渐表现出同类型地区集聚现象。利用差分GMM的动态面板模型验证了企业动态在时间上的前后依赖关系。前期的进入与退出对本期企业动态有不同的影响,竞争效应决定企业的进入,乘数效应决定企业的退出。前期企业动态对后期进入的影响会立即显现出来并随时间衰减,而对退出的影响则存在明显滞后效应,在两年之后达到峰值。同时,产业动态关联机制存在显著的空间差异,其中东部地区显示出更强的竞争效应。不同发展水平的地区应采取差别化的政策来指导地区的产业发展,实现产业更新、结构升级和区域经济的可持续发展。东部地区应建立企业准入门槛,降低低效企业退出壁垒;西部地区应该积极吸引新企业进入,并保护在位企业,防止企业退出导致的连锁性萧条。     

Shear effects in shakedown analysis of offshore structures

In this paper, a formulation for shakedown analysis of elastic-plastic offshore structures under cyclic wave loading is presented. In this formulation, a fast numerical solution method is used, suitable for the Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis of large offshore structures on which shear effects in addition to bending and axial effects are taken into account. The Morison equation is adopted for converting the velocity and acceleration terms into resultant forces and it is extended to consider arbitrary orientations of the structural members. The theoretical methods of the shakedown analysis are discussed in detail and the formulation is applied to an offshore structure to verify the concept employed and its analytical capabilities.     

Multi-component joint inversion of gravity gradient based on fast forward calculation

With the development of gravity gradient full tensor measurement technique , three-dimensional (3D) inversion based on gravity gradient tensor can provide more accurate information .But the forward calcula-tion of 3D full tensor sensitivity matrix is very time-consuming, which restricts its development and application . According to the symmetry of the kernel function , the authors reconstruct the underground source of geological body to avoid repeat computation of the same value , and work out the corresponding relationship between the re-sponse of geological body to the observation point and the response of reconstructed geological body to the obser -vation point .According to the relationship , rapid calculation of full tensor gravity sensitivity matrix can be achieved .The model calculation shows that this method can increase the speed of 30-45 times compared with the traditional calculation method .The sensitivity matrix is applied to the multi-component inversion of gravity gradient .The application of this method on the measured data provides the basis for the promotion of the meth -od.     

Shakedown limit of elastic–plastic offshore structures under cyclic wave loading

This paper uses theorem of shakedown to assess the shakedown limit of elastic–plastic offshore structures. For this aim, an envelope of elastic response of the structure to cyclic loading cases is required. The shakedown limit is basically a valid collapse mechanism and can be quantified using yield line analysis. In this work, Melan theorem of shakedown (lower bound) is employed. Requiring simple elastic envelope and the domain defining yield lines only are the advantages of the Melan theorem. The shakedown analysis can be conducted by the finite element method (FEM), which is the main body of this paper. In order to evaluate the method of this paper, which is in fact combining the Melan theorem and the FEM, two steel offshore frames are analyzed using the proposed method and the results obtained are compared with the results of classical non-linear analysis method.     

适合于AR应用的姿态、位置综合测量系统

本文分析了AR技术的发展需求,提出适合于AR智能导航的姿态、位置综合测量系统.该系统由双频GPS接收机、陀螺仪和车辆里程计组合,采用卡尔曼滤波方法实现位置姿态测量.文章估计了滤波器实时为动态AR智能导航系统输出的位置姿态信息的精度.并通过实验验证了系统的可靠性、适用性和稳定性.     

增强现实电子地图应用模式研究

增强现实是真实世界与虚拟信息融合的可视化窗口,增强现实与地图的结合日益受到学者的关注与重视。如何合理地在增强现实界面上表达地图内容,提高用户的认知效率是研究的难点之一。在分析AR与地图结合的特点的基础上,拓展了AR Maps的概念,并重点研究了AR Maps应用场景过程;提出了一种从宏观到微观的地图应用模式;最后设计了基于应用模式的AR Maps地图架构,构建了Android环境下的地图平台,验证了AR Maps应用模式的功能。     

An improved optimal elemental method for updating finite element models

The optimal matrix method and optimal elemental method used to update finite element models may not provide accurate results. This situation occurs when the test modal model is incomplete, as is often the case in practice. An improved optimal elemental method is presented that defines a new objective function, and as a byproduct, circumvents the need for mass normalized modal shapes, which are also not readily available in practice. To solve the group of nonlinear equations created by the improved optimal method, the Lagrange multiplier method and Matlab function fmincon are employed. To deal with actual complex structures, the float-encoding genetic algorithm (FGA) is introduced to enhance the capability of the improved method. Two examples, a 7degree of freedom (DOF) mass-spring system and a 53-DOF planar frame, respectively, are updated using the improved method.The example results demonstrate the advantages of the improved method over existing optimal methods, and show that the genetic algorithm is an effective way to update the models used for actual complex structures.