基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报思路探讨

文章简要评述了地质灾害基础理论与应用技术发展现状、滑坡灾害多种监测预报判据的利弊。利用综合信息处理决策方法,提出了基于权变理论的滑坡灾害监测预报新思路。分析了滑坡成灾的权变特征、环境因素和决策因素,建立了滑坡灾害预报决策概念模型。进一步探讨了在预报决策中应遵循的动态性及满意性原则,为提高地质灾害监测预报理论的科学性提供了新的理论依据与技术途径。     

Bringing GPS into harsh environments for fully automated deformation monitoring

Engineering projects that require deformation monitoring frequently utilize geodetic sensors to measure displacements of target points located in the deformation zone. In situations where control stations and targets are separated by a kilometer or more, GPS can offer higher precision position updates at more frequent intervals than can normally be achieved using total station technology. For large-scale deformation projects requiring the highest precision, it is therefore advisable to use a combination of the two sensors. In response to the need for high precision, continuous GPS position updates in harsh deformation monitoring environments, a software has been developed that employs triple-differenced carrier-phase measurements in a delayed-state Kalman filter. Two data sets were analyzed to test the capabilities of the software. In the first test, a GPS antenna was displaced using a translation stage to mimic slow deformation. In the second test, data collected at a large open pit mine were processed. It was shown that the delayed-state Kalman filter developed could detect millimeter-level displacements of a GPS antenna. The actual precision attained depends upon the amount of process noise infused at each epoch to accommodate the antenna displacements. Higher process noise values result in quicker detection times, but at the same time increase the noise in the solutions. A slow, 25 mm displacement was detected within 30 min of the full displacement with sigma values in E, N and U of ±10 mm or better. The same displacement could also be detected in less than 5 h with sigma values in E, N and U of ±5 mm or better. The software works best for detecting long period deformations (e.g., 20 mm per day or less) for which sigma values of 1–2 mm are attained in all three solution components. It was also shown that the triple-differenced carrier-phase observation can be used to significantly reduce the effects of residual tropospheric delay that would normally plague double-differenced observations in harsh GPS environments.

贝加尔裂谷系及邻区断裂现今活动变化及成因(英文)

已有的地质和地球物理方法无法对年、月、旬等现今时间尺度上的断层活动变化进行有效预测。运用基于地震活动定量指数运算程序的地理信息技术可以解决这个问题。这种方法被应用于贝加尔裂谷系(BRS)及邻区的研究当中。研究发现,断层活动变化发生在以几年为周期的时间尺度上,这无法用区域应力场的变化进行合理解释。沿着穿越贝加尔裂谷系的剖面编制了活动断层图以及地震活动定量指数曲线。提出的这种方法可以根据地震活动定量指数对活动断层进行仔细的分类,从而为解决地震中期预报相关问题开辟了重要途径。这种方法还被用来研究断层现今活动的时空变化和形成机制。研究发现,在实时尺度上断层活动具有高频发生的特征,这种现象可能是由于脆性岩石圈板内和块体内部运动产生的慢变形波的干扰导致的。利用变形波的通过速度可以对活动断层进行分组,各组具有不同的地质和地球物理特征参数,同时还可以对变形波波前的方向以及某一区域内主要断层在实时间隔内(地质上的瞬间)的活动情况进行预测。     

烟台市城市土地可持续利用评价

以烟台市为例,从生态环境协调性、经济可行性、社会可接受性等方面,构建了2004年城市土地可持续利用评价的指标体系,采用特尔斐等方法计算了其可持续利用度。结果表明,烟台城市土地利用目前仍处于可持续利用起步阶段。     

南京某深基坑边坡支护设计与施工

南京某深基坑周边环境较为复杂,地下水丰富,基坑开挖较深,最深处达13m。根据周边环境的情况和开挖的深度,采用了钻孔灌注桩和土钉锚杆相结合的支护形式。分析了该基坑施工的技术要点,通过监测结果,说明该支护方案是可行的。     

空间索引与多尺度表达的一体化模型研究

在分析各种常用索引的基础上,依据各自的适用范围,提出了对点对象建立格网索引,对线、面对象建立改进四叉树索引的组合优化策略。设计的改进四叉树索引避免了传统四叉树的重复索引,提高了数据访问的效率。     

地铁隧道结构变形监测信息管理系统的开发

地铁隧道结构变形监测的特殊性、周期性和长期性,使其信息量非常庞大.信息管理是地铁隧道结构变形监测中一项重要的工作,现有的管理方式效率很低.为了高效、准确地管理监测信息,及时分析预报地铁隧道结构的稳定状况,本文结合南京地铁运营期隧道结构变形监测实例,开发了一套具有变形监测资料存储、预处理、管理分析、可视化分析、预测预报及限值预警等功能的信息管理系统,保证了准确及时快速的数据处理和信息反馈,具有良好的运用和推广前景.     

An implementation of rock engineering system for ranking the instability potential of natural slopes in Greek territory. An application in Karditsa County

This paper presents an application of rock engineering system (RES) in an attempt to reveal and assess the inherent instability potential of 388 sites where equivalent landslides have been manifested and recorded in the region of Karditsa County, Greece. The main objective has been defining the principal causative and triggering factors responsible for the manifestation of landslide phenomena, quantify their interactions, obtain their weighted coefficients, and calculate the instability index, which refers to the inherent potential instability of each natural slope of the examined region. From the statistical interpretation of the data reported in a well-documented database and concerning the examined failure sites, a clear correlation between the instability index and the area affected by a single landslide event has been revealed. Almost the entire failure sites, 98% of the examined slope sites, exhibit an instability index value over 55, a value which is thought to be a critical threshold for landslide manifestation concerning natural slopes in Karditsa County. It is argued that the presented RES methodology, engaging the selected set of parameters, could be considered as an effective expert's tool for ranking, in an objectively optimal and simple way, the instability potential of natural slopes in Karditsa County, and thus providing a tool for sound zoning landslide hazard.     

利用DInSAR和GPS综合方法估计地表3维形变速率

在分析基于贝叶斯统计和马尔科夫随机场理论的解析优化法的基础上,提出以GPS提供的高精度的水平形变速率作为约束,利用直接分解法,将DInSAR的斜距向形变速率分解成垂直形变速率。试验结果表明,直接分解法有效地综合了GPS的高水平精度与DInSAR的高垂直精度优点,且计算简单,克服了解析优化法可能出现的数值不稳定问题。     

分布式光纤传感技术在滑坡监测中的应用

将分布式光纤传感技术引入滑坡监测,既可得到整个滑坡体的概要特征,又能提高监测效率。FBG与BOTDR是两种最具代表性的分布式光纤传感技术,FBG通过测量其反射光波长的变化获得应变或温度值。BOTDR通过测定后向布里渊散射光的频移实现分布式温度、应变测量。FBG传感器灵敏度高,但只能实现离散点的准分布式测量,BOTDR可实现分布式、长距离、不间断测量,但其空间分辨率不高。笔者提出FBG与BOTDR联合监测滑坡的方案。在巫山残联滑坡,在整个滑坡体上铺设监测光纤,利用BOTDR获得整个滑坡体的概要信息;在滑坡体变形的关键部位———变形缝安装FBG传感器,获得某些关键部位的应变信息,从而实现由点到线再到面的监测,获得滑坡体较完整的应变信息。