基于传力路径的平面不规则RC框架结构减震设计

针对平面不规则RC框架结构,从构件安全层次出发提出基于传力路径的减震设计方法。首先根据广义结构刚度法的基本原理计算结构中所有构件的重要性系数,再假定消能支撑的截面参数,取每层最重要的构件位置布置支撑,经支撑在最不利地震组合下的轴力验算后确定支撑的最终设计参数和数量,然后考虑远场、近场有脉冲以及近场无脉冲地震动从双向输入对结构响应的影响,对减震前、后结构分别进行动力时程分析。分析结果表明,利用此方法优化布置支撑能为结构中重要构件提供有效保护,且在小、中、大震下消能支撑均能运作良好,使整体结构响应得到很好地控制。     

Efficient sampling and data reduction techniques for probabilistic seismic lifeline risk assessment

Probabilistic seismic risk assessment for spatially distributed lifelines is less straightforward than for individual structures. While procedures such as the ‘PEER framework’ have been developed for risk assessment of individual structures, these are not easily applicable to distributed lifeline systems, due to difficulties in describing ground‐motion intensity (e.g. spectral acceleration) over a region (in contrast to ground‐motion intensity at a single site, which is easily quantified using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis), and since the link between the ground‐motion intensities and lifeline performance is usually not available in closed form. As a result, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and its variants are well suited for characterizing ground motions and computing resulting losses to lifelines. This paper proposes a simulation‐based framework for developing a small but stochastically representative catalog of earthquake ground‐motion intensity maps that can be used for lifeline risk assessment. In this framework, Importance Sampling is used to preferentially sample ‘important’ ground‐motion intensity maps, and K‐Means Clustering is used to identify and combine redundant maps in order to obtain a small catalog. The effects of sampling and clustering are accounted for through a weighting on each remaining map, so that the resulting catalog is still a probabilistically correct representation. The feasibility of the proposed simulation framework is illustrated by using it to assess the seismic risk of a simplified model of the San Francisco Bay Area transportation network. A catalog of just 150 intensity maps is generated to represent hazard at 1038 sites from 10 regional fault segments causing earthquakes with magnitudes between five and eight. The risk estimates obtained using these maps are consistent with those obtained using conventional MCS utilizing many orders of magnitudes more ground‐motion intensity maps. Therefore, the proposed technique can be used to drastically reduce the computational expense of a simulation‐based risk assessment, without compromising the accuracy of the risk estimates. This will facilitate computationally intensive risk analysis of systems such as transportation networks. Finally, the study shows that the uncertainties in the ground‐motion intensities and the spatial correlations between ground‐motion intensities at various sites must be modeled in order to obtain unbiased estimates of lifeline risk. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fiji’s fisheries: their contribution to development and their future

The industrial fisheries of Fiji have had mixed fortunes. The fresh fish export industry has grown rapidly in importance so that fisheries is now the third most valuable export industry; its positive effect on the economy is mainly in the increase in the purchase of goods and services, such as air freight. The present ‘hands off’ policy by government in the fresh fish export industry should continue until the industry matures. In the longer run, ad valorem royalties should be considered as a mean of capturing resource rents. The government-owned export cannery has been in financial decline, and the maintenance of the social benefits of regional employment generated by the cannery has come at a high cost to government coffers. The future of the cannery, now leased to a private operator, is clouded by the uncertainty of the continuity of concessional access to European markets beyond the year 2000. The main task faced by government is the management of fisheries and fish stocks. The management of the inshore fisheries — vital to the needs of a large proportion of the population — needs additional resources. The capability for management of the industrial fisheries, necessary to maximise long term public benefits, would be enhanced by full cost recovery through a user pays policy. This article is based on a paper presented to the Fiji Update seminar, held at the National Centre for Development Studies, the Australian National University, Canberra, on 19 June 1998. The author wishes to thank Mr Krishna Swamy, Senior Fisheries Officer in the Fiji Fisheries Division, and Mr Grahame Southwick, Managing Director of the Fiji Fish Company Ltd, for their generous provision of information for the preparation of this paper; and Mr Joeli Veitayaki, Coordinator of the Ocean Resources Management Programme, University of the South Pacific, for helpful comments. Any errors or omissions are the author’s responsibility, however.     

基于SHAP值机器学习的江西暖季暴雨预报因子重要性分析

机器学习模型（Machine Learning,ML）的不可解释性给其在气象业务中的应用带来了挑战。模型解释和可视化是解决这一问题的有效途径。文中将SHAP值应用于天气预报ML模型解释,研究了江西省暖季暴雨模型的预报因子对预报结果的影响。分别选取2016—2020年、2021—2022年4—9月ECWMF（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）高分辨率数值模式物理量及国家站降水观测数据进行XGBoost 建模与模型解释。结果表明,全局重要性排名前4位依次是总降水（重要性42.70%）、850 hPa比湿（重要性11.17%）、925 hPa相对湿度（重要性10.44%）、500 hPa相对湿度（重要性 9.16%）。个例分析表明,命中个例中高重要性物理因子在暴雨区的 SHAP 值较大,漏报（空报）个例在漏报（空报）区域高重要性物理因子的SHAP值偏小（偏大）。SHAP值从全局和局部可定量给出ML模型有物理意义的解释,解释结果与天气学原理和业务经验较一致,有利于ML在气象业务中的深入应用。     

基于Monte Carlo-BP神经网络TBM掘进速度预测

预测隧道工程中TBM掘进速度,主要有完全经验的、半理论半经验的模型和人工智能等方法,所用参数均为确定性的,未考虑参数存在的随机性,故导致预测结果的不准确性。基于此,提出了Monte Carlo-BP神经网络TBM掘进速度预测模型,着重考虑了一些重要输入参数的随机性, 其中输入参数重要性的大小通过粗糙集进行计算排序。采用Monte Carlo产生随机数时,由于参量的样本数据的有限,分布函数均采用阶梯形经验分布函数。如果采用的数据是来自不同类型的 TBM,则应当考虑机器性能参数,并重新对参数重要性进行排序。实例计算表明,Monte Carlo-BP神经网络模型预测结果和实测值总体趋势和均值比较一致。     

旅游活动对鼎湖山生物圈保护区植被的影响

以鼎湖山生物圈保护区为例,采用敏感水平、群落景观重要值、物种多样性信息指数、阴生种比例、伴人植物比例和旅游影响系数等指标,对旅游活动与植被环境的关系和景区管理水平进行了分析评价。研究表明:(1)旅游影响系数与植被环境质量评价指标之间、植被环境质量各项评价指标之间、旅游影响系数内部各因子之间均存在不同程度的相关性。敏感水平值越大,群落景观重要值、阴生种比例值越小,物种多样性信息指数、伴人植物比例、旅游影响系数值越大;旅游影响系数越大,敏感水平、物种多样性信息指数、伴人植物比例越大,群落景观重要值、阴生种比例越小;旅游影响系数与其各影响因子均呈正相关,即旅游影响系数越大,枯枝落叶层越薄、草本层盖度越小、幼苗量越小、折枝数量越多、垃圾量越大。研究结果与鼎湖山旅游发展的实践基本相符,客观上揭示了旅游活动对植被影响的规律和特点;(2)根据旅游影响系数分级标准,鼎湖山景区质量管理水平总体可定为中上水平,但个别地段存在环境隐患,有必要进一步提高管理水平。     

基于复杂网络理论的城市道路网络自动综合方法

道路网络自动综合是地图综合的主要研究课题。本文通过引入对偶拓扑理论建立了城市道路网络的对偶拓扑结构,并将道路的重要性表达为路网中所有道路的重要度贡献的总和,进而提出了一种道路网络自动综合方法。实验表明,本文方法可以较为合理地选取路网中相对重要的道路,所选路网保持了原始路网的整体形态及拓扑连通。     

Vegetation patterns and species–environment relationships in the Gurbantunggut Desert of China

The Gurbantunggut Desert is the largest stable and semi-stable sand desert in China, yet few data exist on vegetation pattern and species-environment relationships for these diverse desert landscapes. The sand dunes of the survey area are mainly of the longitudinal form from north to south, but checkerboard-shaped and honeycomb-shaped forms are also present, with the height of 10–50 m. We measured vegetation and soil data on north–south transects and compared them with vegetation and soil data on east–west transects. Analysis revealed that the varying trend and strength of the species diversity, dominance and cover of the plant communities in the longitudinal and transverse directions across the landscape are significantly different. The results of CCA ordination show that the microhabitats of soil organic matter (OM), soil salts (TS), sorting index (σ), topsoil water-content (SM) and pH relate to the differences in vegetation observed as differences in species assemblage from salt-intolerant ephemerals, micro-subshrubs and subshrubs to salt-tolerant shrubs and micro-arbors. The terrain (alt.) and soil texture (the contents of Mz and φ1) affect the spatial differentiation of many species. However, this spatial differentiation is not so marked on transects running longitudinally with the landscape, in the same direction as the dunes. The species of the desert vegetation have formed three assemblages under the action of habitat gradients, relating to three sections running transversely across the landscape, at right angles to the direction of the dune crests. In the mid-east section of the study area the topography is higher, with sand-lands or dune-slopes with coarse particles. Here the dominant vegetation comprises shrubs and subshrubs of Seriphidium santolium and Ephedra distachya, with large numbers of ephemeral and ephemeroid plants of Senecio subdentatus, and Carex physodes in spring and summer. On the soil of the dune-slopes in the mid-west of the study area, with coarse particles and abundant TK, the plant assemblage of Haloxylon persicum, Soranthus meyeri and Agriophyllum squarrosum is developed. The species composition in the east marginal belt of the study area has similar characteristics to the mid-west section. There is no corresponding section in the north–south transects (except for the north and south margins). This is because the habitats of most plants are located in the middle of the microhabitat gradients in the north–south direction in the desert.     

Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion

To assess the flood protection capacity of dunes in The Netherlands, a semi-probabilistic dune-erosion prediction method is currently in use in which uncertainties in input parameters of an empirical dune erosion model were taken into account, with the exception of the uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution. Previous research has shown that the surge is by far the most influential parameter affecting erosion in the currently used erosion model, which is due both to the influence of the surge level itself and to the conditional dependence of the wave height and period on the surge level in the probabilistic model used for the assessment. Furthermore, the distribution of extreme surge levels has been shown to contain large statistical uncertainty. The inclusion of uncertainty in input variables into probabilistic models results in more extreme events (in this case erosion) for the same exceedance probability, largely due to the incorporation of higher values of the input variables. The goal of the research described in this paper was to determine the impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the extreme surge distribution on the estimate of critical erosion (erosion associated with an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year). The uncertainty in the surge distributions was estimated and parameterized, and was incorporated into the probabilistic model. A reduction in uncertainty was subsequently imposed to estimate what value a reduction in uncertainty can offer, in terms of the impact on critical erosion. The probabilistic technique first-order reliability method (FORM) was applied to determine the relative contribution of the uncertainty in the surge distribution (as well as the remaining stochastic variables) to the critical erosion. The impact of the inclusion of uncertainty in the surge distribution on the critical retreat distance was found to be substantial with increases ranging from 34% to 93% of the original estimate at five locations along the Dutch coast. The reduced uncertainty showed a more subtle impact, with increases in critical retreat distance ranging from 10% to 26% of the original estimate. The relative importance analysis showed that the uncertainty in the surge distribution has a strong influence, with the relative importance ranging from 10% to 23% for an exceedance frequency of 10^− 5 per year.     

基于重点抽样法的固定式平台结构风险评价研究

在建立海上油气设施的风险分析系统时,对由台风引发的极端海况造成的结构失效进行风险评估是1个十分重要的问题。为了建立实用可靠的风险评价方法,本文使用基于重点抽样法的随机模拟技术,对渤海海域CB12-C井组平台结构进行了全概率法失效概率计算,并在此基础上进行了平台结构的风险评价。该方法是1种适用于固定式海洋平台的定量风险评价方法,充分考虑了平台结构风险分析过程中各种不确定性的影响,极大提高了定量风险评价结果的可靠性。