新疆和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价

随着化肥、农膜等在农业生产中的过量投入,耕地面源污染的程度随之加重。文章选取塔里木河流域上游和田地区为研究区域,依据P-S-R框架理论,构建和田地区耕地面源污染生态风险评价指标体系,加入土壤理化数据,使用生态风险评价模型对和田地区1980 年及2016 年耕地面源污染状况进行生态风险评价,运用耕地生态风险模型、生态风险转移矩阵、Arcgis分析和田地区耕地面源污染时空分异状况。研究结论如下：和田地区1980 年耕地生态风险等级均为II级或III级,呈“中间高,两侧低”分布;2016 年耕地生态风险等级上升至IV级或V级,呈“倒W型”分布,各县耕地面源污染程度较1980 年均有较大幅度的上升,其中墨玉县和于田县在2016 年耕地生态风险等级达到最高的V级,而民丰县因自身生态环境的强脆弱性,同样需要提高关注。根据面源污染“从源头治理”的原则,应切实推进和田地区耕地生态环境保护与治理,提高政府重视程度,增强技术指导,开展试点工作,改善和田地区耕地面源污染现状。     

全球主要河流流域碳酸盐岩风化碳汇评估

碳酸盐岩风化吸收的大气CO₂主要以HCO₃ ^-形式连续地经由河流从大陆输送到海洋,成为陆地生态系统的重要碳汇。目前主要河流流域的碳酸盐岩风化碳汇估算存在不确定性,分布格局尚不清晰。基于GEMS-GLORI全球河流数据库提供的全球10万km ²以上主要河流流域多年平均监测数据,利用水化学径流法估算出全球主要河流流域碳酸盐岩对CO₂的吸收速率为0.43±0.15 Pg CO₂ yr ^-1,平均CO₂吸收通量为7.93±2.8 t km ^-2 yr ^-1。CO₂吸收通量在不同气候带下差异显著,热带和暖温带CO₂年吸收速率占全球主要河流流域年吸收速率的62.95%。冷温带CO₂年吸收速率占全球主要河流流域的33.05%,仅次于热带地区。本文划分出全球CO₂吸收通量的9个关键带,关键带的交汇处CO₂吸收通量较高。喀斯特出露流域碳酸盐岩对CO₂吸收通量的均值为8.50 t km ^-2 yr ^-1,约为非喀斯特流域的3倍。全球喀斯特出露流域碳酸盐岩风化碳汇在全球碳循环、水循环及碳收支平衡估算研究方面占据重要地位。     

灰色关联法在青海明长城单体建筑病害与危险性评价中的应用

土遗址保护是目前国内外文物保护研究的热点问题,但关于土遗址的病害量化,各病害间的关联程度以及土遗址的危险性评价却少有研究。通过对青海省湟中明长城的17个单体建筑-烽火台的现场调查,采用灰色关联理论分析坍塌体积、掏蚀体积、冲沟体积、裂隙长度、洞穴体积、片状剥离面积、生物破坏面积7个影响因子的权重及关联性,并建立土遗址单体的危险性评价模型进而对其进行危险性评价,最终确定各单体建筑的危险程度。     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Regional comprehensive assessment on environment-health of China

The aim of the study was to assess the environment-health development in different regions of China. 175 indicators, such as average life expectancy at birth, emission intensity of waste gas, GDP etc. were chosen to describe various aspects of the environment, health and development of China. Of all the indicators, life expectancy can sufficiently reflect health situation of population. Consequently, life expectancy was identified as key indicator, and 42 out of 175 indicators were selected for establishing the environment-health indicator framework with three grades of integrative indices to assess the development of environment-health of China. Based on the hierarchical relation between various grades of indices, the comprehensive environment-health index was calculated and contributed to classify the environment-health situation of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China which were divided into five grades by four predefined limits. Comprehensive assessment indicates that the environment-health situation of the eastern and coastal areas is superior to that of inland which is the western regions with underdeveloped economy and rigorous natural condition. Especially, the Qinghai-Tibet and Yunnan-Guizhou plateaus in southwestern China are most vulnerable in the environment and population health. These fit in with the pattern of national socio-economic development, which fully shows that socio-economic context plays a dominant role in the improvement of environment-health in China.     

空心村土地整治潜力调查与评价技术方法——以山东省禹城市为例

新时期中国农村土地整治,已由单纯的学术性研究逐渐上升为拉动内需、推动新农村建设、实现统筹城乡发展战略的重大举措.开展空心村用地整治潜力的调查与评价是实行空心村整治的重要前提和基础.以山东省禹城市徐集等13个典型村为例,综合集成地理学、信息科学、土地科学等多学科的优势与技术手段,深入开展了典型空心村选取、村庄尺度土地利用现状分类体系构建、宅基地利用属性调查表设计、高分辨率遥感影像(分辨率0.25 m)使用与解译、空心村整治潜力类型及其测算方法等研究,逐层递进地构建了空心村用地潜力调查与评价的成套技术方法.实现了对传统土地利用研究的有益创新,有据可依,步骤清晰,成果明确,简单易行,空心村用地潜力调查与评价结果符合山东省禹城市的实际状况,取得了良好应用效果.研究成果可为开展我国空心村土地综合整治潜力的调查与评价提供技术方法支持.     

SEISMIC IMPACT LOADING IN INELASTIC TENSION-ONLY CONCENTRICALLY BRACED STEEL FRAMES: MYTH OR REALITY?

Tension-Only Concentrically Braced Frames (TOCBF) exhibit deteriorating pinched hysteretic behaviour during strong earthquakes. Slender braces transit between an elastic buckling state, a restraightening state, in which they carry almost no load, an elastic tensile loading state as they are suddenly taut and, finally, a tensile yielding state. It has long been suspected that the sudden increase in tensile forces in the braces of TOCBSF creates detrimental impact loading on the connections and other structural elements. No experimental evidence, however, has been provided so far to confirm, or to quantify, this impact phenomenon. This paper addresses this issue through shake table tests of half scale, two-storey, TOCBF models. By normalizing the hysteresis loops of braces obtained from shake table tests to the yield strength of steel obtained from quasi-static tests, the increase in tensile forces in the braces was obtained. Results of dynamic tensile tests on steel coupons under similar strain rates as observed during the shake table tests showed that this increase in tensile forces is not the result of impact, but is rather caused by a yield strength increase of the steel under high strain rate. A procedure is proposed to estimate and account for this increase in tensile forces in the braces at the design stage.     

贵州冰雹灾害强度评估方法研究

【目的】为快速评估单次过程冰雹强度和范围,及时为灾后的救援、勘察和保险核灾工作提供参考依据,【方法】本文利用贵州省2021-2023年间的141次冰雹过程的多普勒天气雷达资料和探空资料,结合降雹观测资料和灾害损失调查记录,在贵州山区防雹业务预报预警指标的框架下,通过历史资料回算的定性评估结果跟网格化处理后的降雹数据做一致性对比,选取冰雹强度精细化评估的影响结果覆盖94%以上的降雹观测点位置且收敛性较好的阈值作为单时次的识别指标确定的依据,采用加权时间积分方法建立冰雹过程评估模型,该模型能够对冰雹过程进行精细化评估得到1km空间分辨率的评估结果。【结果】为验证评估结果的准确性,选取了一次典型灾害开展无人机遥感调查,反演结果与评估结果作对比检验,25处冰雹受灾位置中有22处降雹区位于评估范围的重度区域内,3处降雹区位于评估结果对应的中度灾害范围内,调查情况与冰雹精细化评估的强度范围和分布一致。以六盘水市风雹灾害损失记录和冰雹影响面积区域评估数据作对比分析,结果表明三种不同冰雹强度的评估面积与直接经济损失数据的两两相关系数均达到0.8以上,在0.01的显著性水平下进行假设检验,具有显著正相关。【结论】检验结果说明该评估方法在冰雹区域强度评估中能够较好地反映实际受灾程度。     

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

     

上海洋山建港后港域夏季水文泥沙状况分析

对2007年9月17-26日在上海洋山港海域固定观测点(平均水深13 m)观测得到的水文泥沙要素,以及悬沙和底质样品分析.分析结果为:1)港域有效波高0.21-1.37 m(风速0.6～14.0 m/s),平均0.61 m(平均风速5.5 m/s).平静天气(平均风速小于5.0 m/s)下,波高随水深变化,两者的相关系数为0.899;而在强风天气下,波高受风况控制.2)最大表层流速超过2.00 m/s.大潮涨潮流占优势,小潮时落潮流占优势;与北岛链汉道封堵前相比,大潮涨、落潮平均流速分别减小15%和30%,小潮涨、落潮平均流速均减小30%～40%.各层余流均为西北方向,与涨潮流方向一致;垂向平均余流速0.11 cm/s,表层达0.25 m/s.3)离底高程1.35 m层和0.35m层最大悬沙浓度均大于3 kg/m3,两层平均悬沙浓度分别为0.89和0.95 kg/m3.无论大潮还是小潮涨潮悬沙浓度均大于落潮,这种现象在大潮时更为显著,潮周期中最大悬沙浓度出现在涨急.与工程前相比悬沙浓度明显降低,大、小潮降低均达20%.4)港区底质平均粒径9.0μm,工程后有变细的趋势.